An Introduction: Texas vs. Texas Tech

by Seth C on Oct 28, 2008 12:00 PM CDT in Football Comment 12 comments

TTU Pass Offense vs. UT Pass Defense	TTU Rush Offense vs. UT Rush Defense	TTU Pass Defense vs. UT Pass Offense	TTU Rush Defense vs. UT Rush Offense
418.38 (1,1)	138.50 (64, 7)	245.50 (98, 8)	101.00 (14, 2)
265.50 (110, 10)	69.25 (3, 4)	303.13 (11, 5)	183.38 (32, 3)

TTU Scoring Offense vs. UT Scoring Defense	TTU Scoring Defense vs. UT Scoring Offense
48.00 (3, 2)	21.13 (39, 2)
18.38 (28, 1)	45.63 (5, 4)

Very similar teams, at least statistically. Both are pretty good against the run (UT is better), while both are also pedestrian against the pass. I still maintain that a big part of these stats are probably a product of the style of play of their respective opponents as well as having some success stopping the run. That's not to say that neither unit only has good numbers because teams are passing more than running, but it's certainly a factor. Interestingly, Texas Tech is just a tick ahead of Texas in terms of total offense and Texas is a nose ahead on defense. It's going to be close and it's going to be a shootout.

Statistical Interestingness:

Texas Tech is 2nd in the Big 12 in stopping opponents' third downs (32.04%), and are almost just as good on the road (32.08%) as they are at home (32.00%).
Texas is converting 80.43% of their redzone opportunities into touchdowns, while Texas Tech is at a meager 78.00% which is good for 3rd in the conference. Texas Tech actually has more scores, despite being absolutely dismal converting field goals (only 8.00% in the redzone), but the difference here is Texas Tech has had 50 attempts compared to only 46 for Texas.
Texas Tech is 3rd in the Big 12 in total defense, while Texas is 1st. I think we're splitting hairs here, but I think both teams are on pretty equal footing as Texas Tech allows 5.0 yards per play while Texas allows 5.1. Over the course of 8 games, Texas Tech has given up 94 yards more than Texas.
Texas Tech is only allowing 1.88 tackles for a loss per game. That's less than 2 negative plays for every game. Think about that for a minute. Texas looks like they are a little more on the normal side of things as they allow 5.88 tackles for a loss each game. Texas Tech has lost 41 yards, while Texas has lost 179.

	Result		Result
Eastern Washington	W, 49-24	Florida Atlantic	W, 52-10
@ Nevada	W, 35-19	@ UTEP	W, 42-13
SMU	W, 43-7	Rice	W 52-10
UMass	W, 56-14	Arkansas	W, 52-10
@ Kansas State	W, 58-28	@ Colorado	W, 38-14
Nebraska	W, 37-31	Oklahoma	W, 45-35
@ Texas A&M	W, 43-25	Missouri	W, 56-31
@ Kansas	W, 63-21	Oklahoma State	W, 28-24

So my thought after looking at UT's non-conference schedule is, meh. I get the same thought after looking at Texas Tech's non-conference schedule, and almost any teams' non-conference schedule is completely forgotten, at least by me, by the time team's get to the meat of conference play. However, the computers continue to look back and that's what's hurting Texas Tech right now. Still, Texas only has 1 non-conference opponent with a winning record, Rice, while Texas Tech has Nevada at .500 (one of their losses came against Missouri) and UMass checking in at 5-3. Again. Meh, on both sides. As far as the conference is concerned, Texas decidedly has the advantage as Texas Tech's toughest opponents were last week and the next three weeks (UT, OSU and OU). UT deserves a ton of credit for handling each of the past three weeks so well.

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Something's Gotta Give

Interesting to see the most UT has allowed all year is 35 and our lowest point prodiction was 35. While I am confident we will socre more than that, I’ll be interested to see what type of offense UT throws at us. The conservative play-calling (i.e.3-4 yard out/curl routes combined with the 7-8yard slant that Colt has been connecting with Shipley alot) was combined with some crazy play-calling (reverses, WR passes, etc). However in the end it will come down to whether we cna get pressure on McCoy. He will make plays with his feet but we have to limit them.

I would love it Ruffin stays with the 4-2-5 we saw the last 3 qtrs up in Lawrence. Keep Duncan or Marln as a Spy and use the other LB for pass support, priarily in the middle of the field to help provide underneath support.

I don’t know who all watched the OSU-Texas game but OSU laid out a perfect blue-print on how to give Texas trouble. For those who did not catch it that game was A LOT closer than any UT fan will let you believe. Take away Kendall’s fumble, the very questionable Pass Int. call on the Cosby pass to Shipley and the Roughing the QB call that negarted an INT and I gurantee Texas rolls into town with a loss.

The one thing Ruffin has to realize is that if you give Texas an opportunity they will pounce on it. OSU started off with the Tech-like 6-7 yard cushion and Colt would check out to a quick pass to the open reciever. Granted these plays would result in only 2-3 yards, but all it takes is Cosby or Shipley to make one good move and you are looking at 8-10 yards. Luckily for us the talent level takes a significant drop after Cosby and Shipley but both of these guys have the potential to make it a very long day for the secondary.

by mtepper on Oct 28, 2008 2:01 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Something you missed Seth

Look at Texas Home v Away schedule.

They have not faced a ranked team on the road. Thus this will be Texas first challenge on the road where everything is one the line.

Texas has not faced good competition on the road either. Unless you call Colorado a top talent. Its not.

Thus this will be the first true on the road test for Texas. The OU game does not count as both teams had no advantage.

I just think its interesting that Texas has had 6 home games out of 8 so far and will finish the season with 8 of 12 at home.

That is a built in advantage by scheduling. They will have a balanced schedule next year. But every other year they get this 8 game home thing.

by Pablo M on Oct 28, 2008 2:16 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

This will also be Tech's first game against a legitimately ranked opponent....

Kansas is no longer ranked. They have lost every “big game” they have had (OU, USF, and Tech) and likely won’t snif the rankings again. Yes, this is Texas’ first road game against a ranked opponent, but I would put more stock in wins against #4 OU, #10 Oklahoma State, and #11 MiZZOU, then the home field advantage.

Texas had already played three games this season that have qualified as the "Biggest Ever’ for their opponent. UTEP, Oklahoma State, and MiZZOU. Texas is battle tested. They won’t be overwhelmed by a road game, and if you think they will, you haven’t watched any Texas games this season.

by the1austin on Oct 29, 2008 1:10 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Keep thinking that way.

Texas has historically struggled to win in Lubbock and pulled out wins against a Tech team that honestly had no real defense.

Things are much different this year. Tech has a defense that has played straight up no frills for most of its games. Texas had to throw in the kitchen sink against Colorado, Oklahoma and Oklahoma State as far as defense is concerned to preserve wins.

Thats the truth if you have the nerve to shame the devil and admit the truth of the matter.

The point is that Texas will struggle in Lubbock. The question is can they overcome like they have in the past.

I say Texas chokes this year because they think they have the Leach figured out. Like I say. Keep thinking like that and watch the score board light up with Tech putting up a significant win.
Nebraska once thought like you guys. Tech was the first to put 70 on them before their major fall. So keep thinking Tech is nothing!

by Pablo M on Oct 29, 2008 5:46 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Tech who?

Texas is going to smoke Tech in Lub. Get ready! Don’t get too drunk while you wait. It’s going to hurt bad when Colt hooks up with Reynolds this week. He’s been hurt all year and this will be his first game…all 6’6, 230 pounds of pure WR! He’s a freak!

by Dawnpatrol on Oct 28, 2008 5:06 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

With commentary like that...

it’s nice to so DTN is so popular it attracts those famous Texas t-shirt fans…

make sure to help out Dawnpatrol and everyone get their oil changed at Autozone before making the trip out to Lubbock and ask for Dawn…he’ll be the one wearing the UT hat

by mtepper on Oct 28, 2008 6:33 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs