TTU-OU Number Crunching (Advantage TTU)
by LondonRaider on Nov 11, 2008 9:45 AM CST
16 comments
I’ve had some time to crunch some TTU and OU numbers by comparing both teams’ performance to their six opponents in the Big 12 this year. TTU and OU have now played five common opponents (UT, NU, KSU, KU, TAM) so there is quite a bit of data to draw upon.
I have not included non-conference opponents, mainly because neither TTU’s or OU’s non-conference opponents are particularly good teams (with the exception of OU’s victory over a very solid TCU team).
I have also opted not to include national figures for defense, because they are a bit misleading. For example OU is currently ranked 51st in the country in overall defense, surrendering 354 yards per game. However, in the Big 12 to date OU is giving up 407 yards per contest. Conversely, Texas Tech is ranked 57th overall giving up 351 yards per contest . In the Big 12 rankings for defense, TTU is actually playing better defense than OU.
I did include the national figures for offense, because those production figures have remained consistent over the course of Big XII play.
The results of the analysis are fairly surprising. I toyed around with the idea of replacing Baylor with TCU, which would have made OU’s numbers worse, but to keep things simple I elected to go with the averages based on Big 12 performances only.
Key Findings
My key conclusion is that our overall chances against OU are much better than the prognosticators are predicting. In fact if this game was not being played in Norman, I am pretty certain we would be favored in this game.
Avoid Turnovers. Our main key to victory will be to avoid turnovers. OU has been extremely effective at generating turnovers, and this ability has been OU’s key to putting opponents away early and often. OU is +10 in turnover margin in its last 6 games, and has generated 4 or more turnovers in its last three victories.
OU's Defense is Vulnerable. Overall OU’s defense is weak. TTU is by far the strongest offense OU has faced this season. OU is giving up an average of over 400 yards per contest. Our advantage on offense is significant. TTU scores more points per possession and does so more frequently than OU.
OU's Offense Tends to Score Early and Often. Despite playing so well in recent weeks (it is time to acknowledge Ruffin’s success), our defense still remains our largest question mark. OU has a tendency to score early. If we are able to contain them in the opening quarters, our probability for victory should improve immensely.
Neverthless, these teams are tightly matched-up, but I think we have a chance to do something special this year. Go Red Raiders!!
Overall
Average Margin of Victory: Tie
(TTU = 23, OU = 22).
Against five common opponents (UT, KSU, KU, NU, TAM) TTU’s aggregate margin of victory is 103 points, while OU’s aggregate margin of victory is 99 points.
Defense
Total Yards Against: Advantage TTU
TTU is yielding an average of 355 yards per contest, while OU is yielding an average of 407 yards per contest.
TTU’s best performance was holding Kansas State to 296 yards. OU’s best performance was holding Baylor to 269 yards. TTU’s worst performance came against Nebraska when the defense yielded 471 yards. OU’s worst performance came against Kansas State when it yielded 550 yards (although OU did generate 5 turnovers in that contest).
Against five common opponents (UT, KSU, KU, NU, TAM), TTU has yielded 352 yards per game while OU has yielded 435 yards per game.
In Big XII contests to date, TTU is yielding slightly less points as a defense than OU. TTU is surrendering an average of 25.2 points per game while OU is giving up about 28.3 points per game.
Turnovers: Advantage OU
OU’s defense has created 15 turnovers, averaging 2.5 take aways per game. TTU has created 13 turnovers averaging 2.2 take aways per game.
However, OU’s takeaway margin +10, while TTU’s is +5.
OU’s defense is opportunistic and dangerous. In OU’s last three victories against KSU, NU and TAM, OU’s defense created 4 turnover or more which has resulted in more possessions for OU and higher overall offensive outputs against its opponents.
Offense
Offensive Efficiency: Advantage TTU
TTU’s offense is far more efficient than OU’s. TTU is averaging 4.10 points per possession while scoring an average of 64% of its possessions. OU is averaging 3.34 points per possession while scoring an average of 50% of its possessions.
TTU’s best offensive showing came against OSU when it scored on 80% of its possessions, while its worst showing came against UT when it scored on 50% of its possessions.
Likewise, OU’s best offensive showing came against Baylor when it scored on 58% of its possessions, while its worst showing also came against UT when it scored on 42% of its possessions.
OU’s poorer offensive efficiency is partially explained by its ability to generate large leads early on in its contests, enabling it play less aggressively in later quarters.
On average OU has scored on 74% of its possessions in the first quarter; 52% of its possessions in the second quarter, 52% of its possessions in the third quarter, and just 10% of its possession in the fourth quarter. By comparison, TTU has scored on 77%, 67%, 65%, 59% of its possessions respectively by quarter.
In OU’s loss against UT, the Sooner offense managed to score on 52%, 52%, 67% and 0% of its possessions respectively by quarter.
For TTU fans, limiting OU’s scoring opportunities early could be a sign of good things to come.
In five games, OU has outscored TTU 294 points to 287. However, OU has benefited from 18 more possessions than TTU which is partially accounted by its ability to create more take aways.
So far this year, OU is ranked second in scoring with 51.4 points per game, followed by TTU which is ranked third at 47.9 points per game.
TTU is ranked second in the nation (behind Tulsa) in overall offense averaging 593 yards per game. Oklahoma is ranked third in the country at 550 yards per game.
TTU leads the nation in average passing yards per game with 433.7 yards per contest, while OU is ranked third in the nation averaging 355.5 yards per game.
OU averages 194.3 yards per game rushing, while TTU averages 132.6 yards per contest.
TTU is ranked third overall on third down conversions - converting on 57.8% of its snaps. OU is ranked 23rd nationally - converting 46.4% of its third downs.
Neither team is shy about going for it on fourth down. TTU has gone for it on 15 occassions and has converted 10 tries succesfully. OU has gone for it on 16 occassions and has converted 8 of its attempts successfully.
Special Teams: Slight Overall Edge to OU
Kick Off Returns: Slight Edge TTU
TTU is averaging 24.7 yards per kick off return. OU is yielding 25.7 yards per kick off return.
OU is averaging 26.7 yards per kick off return. TTU is yielding 22.5 yards per kick off return.
OU has allowed one kick off return for a touchdown (UT – Jordan Shipley). TTU has not allowed a kick off return touchdown this year.
Punt Returns: Advantage OU
TTU is averaging 4.5 yards per punt return. OU is yielding 0.7 yards per punt return.
OU is averaging 11.3 yards per punt return. TTU is allowing 10.9 yards per punt return.
TTU has allowed one punt return for a touchdown (UT – Jordan Shipley). OU has not allowed a punt return touchdown this year.
Field Goals: (Are you ready for this?) Advantage TTU
TTU has scored on 75% of its field goal attempts (6 out of 8 attempts). OU has scored on 50% of its field goal attempts (3 out of 6 attempts).
Extra Points: Advantage OU
OU has scored on 95% of its extra point attempts, connecting on 42 out of 44 attempts. TTU has scored on 90% of its extra point attempts, connecting on 36 out of 40 attempts and has surrendered a two-point return on a blocked field goal attempt (-6 potential points). TTU’s kicking game, however, has improved. TTU is 21 for 21in extra points over its last three contests.
Punting: Tie
OU is averaging 35.3 yards per punt with 8 punts placed within the 20 yard line. TTU is averaging 37.0 yards per punt with 4 punts placed within the 20 yard line.
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Double-T Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Double-T Nation's writers or editors.
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thanks
sure appreciate your work on these numbers. I truly believe that Tech will beat Oklahoma because of their work habits and attitude, plus they are the better team. I would caution about the scoring etc. late in the game. I know they called the dogs off of a couple of teams including the entire fourth quarter against the aggies. Thanks again.
by eddyc555 on Nov 11, 2008 10:47 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
STRIP THE BALL FROM RECEIVER--STRIP THE BALL
AS A TECH ALUM ,TALKING TO ANOTHER TECH ALUM FROM OKLAHOMA, OU IS GOING ALL OUT TO STRIP THE RECEIVERS. THEY THINK TECH RECEIVERS ARE GETTING REALLY LAXED AT CARRYING THE BALL,,ESPECIALLY CRABTREE AND LEWIS. PASS IT ALONG TO COACHES AND PLAYERS IF YOU HAVE THE RESOURCES. THATS WHERE THERE GOING AFTER TURNOVERS- ONLY ONE OR TWO OF THESE TURNOVERS WILL TURN THE GAME AND TUROVERS WILL TELL THE TALE OF THIS GAME . GO TECH PASS IT ON
by Dr. Mark on Nov 11, 2008 1:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
no doubt
Man, I cringe sometimes when they are cuting through traffic with that ball just dangling out there. It’s caused no massive issues yet, but they have such similar running styles they look identical with the ball (which bodes well for Tech when Crabtree leaves). I just wish they secured it a little tighter.
by Tech92 on Nov 11, 2008 1:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
concur
Turnovers are bad any time, but OU lives and dies by them more than any other team we’ve faced thus far.
by mojavereject on Nov 11, 2008 2:21 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Based on my observations
of OU’s defense, they are an aggressive squad that anticipates, jumps routes, and is willing to give up the big play in favor of keeping their safeties underneath and in position to disrupt the run and intermediate passing game. This gives them an advantage against offenses early in games, before adjustments are made. I know Venables isn’t the most popular guy in Norman right now, but he does a good job of masking his defense’s weaknesses with an opportunistic gameplan that gets the ball back into Sam Bradford’s hands as quickly and as frequently as possible.
Except for last week’s rout of A&M, this OU defense has forced the lion’s share of their turnovers against Big XII opponents in the first half- especially against Nebraska, where three turnovers in the first quarter helped put them on top big before the Husker offense could even put together a series of more than two plays. This, in conjunction with Bradford & Co.‘s ability to convert turnovers into mad pointz means that Texas Tech has to put a priority on protecting the ball. Turning in long drives like they did against OSU will go along way toward minimizing this part of OU’s game: generally speaking, if an offense can survive their first set of downs against the Sooner D, they have a good chance at putting together a point-producing drive.
Graham’s going to need to spread the ball around just as much as he did against OSU, neutralizing the pass rush and keeping the DB’s honest- if he gets too predictable, look for one of these guys to jump the route and come up with the INT. Naturally, Batch and Woods are going to be a huuuge part of this gameplan, and dedfischer over at the Retort (update your shit more often, ya jerk) has preached this gospel after every TTU win: when the RB’s get more than 20 touches a game, we are almost unstoppable. Right now they are splitting rushing attempts evenly, with Batch between the 20’s and Woods turning in competent work in the Red Zone. I have a huge mancrush on Baron Batch, but if Woods keeps his game at its current level, it’s tough to argue against Leach’s platoon system.
On the defensive side of the ball, as per usual, how well we get pressure out of the base 4-3 is going to dictate our success against OU. Sam Bradford is way too good to just be a sophomore, and even in the loss to Texas he turned in an excellent game. He’s not a runner, but like Harrell, if you don’t play contain he will scamper for 7 even if you’ve got every receiver on the field covered. Unlike OSU, Texas, or Kansas, however, he’ll have more than two receivers to work with. He’s not going to throw ten passes to 3 or more different targets like Harrell will, of course, but that’s not stopping him from being able to throw effectively to Gresham, Iglesias, Chaney, and even Murray over the course of a game.
Long story short, he’s going to get his yards, but you can limit the damage like Texas did by focussing on a possible liability in OU’s game: Rushing. Murray and Brown share the rushing attempts for the most part, and when they’re on, you are totally fucked, but if you limit their carries and production, you turn OU’s offense into the Sam Bradford Show. He’s great, but he’s running an offense that can be slowed down or even stopped when it goes one-dimensional, and when UT’s victory in the Red River Shootout had a lot to do with holding OU’s running game to only 46 yards. This is especially notable given that they trailed the Sooners most of the game, and could have been susceptible to the kind of keep-away game that Nebraska nearly beat us with, had the run been there.
That’s where the front four comes in. UT was able to get to Bradford off the ends, and Orakpo made Loadholt look silly on a few plays- hopefully Williams has been taking notes. OU’s O-line is ridiculously talented, but they are susceptible to getting outplayed (or at least, it’s happened once before). Hopefully Whitlock will come out spitting hot fire like he did against UT, and I am as always optimistic about the contributions Dixon can bring. Having Rajon Henley back on the 2-deep will help also. I would invite Sesay to stop being a dumbass and get out of Leach and McNeil’s doghouse ASAP. I know Gresham can catch, but is he anywhere near the same level in his blocking game as Pettigrew? Inquiring minds want to know, as solid blocking from the TE position was one of the few bright spots for OSU last Saturday. If he’s contributing to run-blocking AND sneaking around getting open in our secondary, I am going to start getting worried.
by mojavereject on Nov 11, 2008 2:03 PM CST reply actions 1 recs
Defense
I think we play OU very similar to the way we played Texas…in the first half. Except that we keep a 4 man front. IMO, OU is a better running team than Texas (at least Texas without Whitaker). We’ll need an honest front to contain the run. I think we bring out our nickel package and trust our DBs in man coverage.
On offensive, I like our passing game against the OU secondary. Their pass rush is pretty good, but they tend to be overly aggressive. We’ll burn them a couple of times with a screen.
by NM99 on Nov 11, 2008 4:48 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
GOOD READ MOJAVE
GOOD READ MOJAVE, TAKE IT TO THE BANK, IF WE DONT TURN IT OVER, WE’LL WIN. THAT FIRST OFFENSIVE POSSESION UNLIKE LAST WEEK , IS VERY IMPORTANT TO THE GAMES TEMPO AND FEILD POSITION. WHEN OU SMELLS BLOOD [TURNOVERS] , THEY ARE THE BEST TEAM IN THE NATION, PERIOD—GO TECH
by Dr. Mark on Nov 11, 2008 3:34 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Possessions
“OU has benefited from 18 more possessions than TTU which is partially accounted by its ability to create more take aways.”
The only way to end up with more possessions is to start and end a half with the ball. A turnover counts as a possession, albeit a failed one. OU has been good at getting the ball and keeping it. If anyone knows how ot play against Leach, its Stoops. Leach was his OC, afterall.
by NM99 on Nov 11, 2008 4:40 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I'm not sure I agree
As I mentioned in the post, number of possessions is only partially accounted by the ability to generate turnovers. Other factors include the average time of possession of the offense, and the average time it takes a defense to get the other team off the field, scores by special teams, and scores off turnovers.
In OU’s case, the turnovers are significant. Against UT, OU’s lone conference game where it was unable to generate a turnover, OU had 12 possessions. In subsequent games where OU generated 4 to 5 turnovers, the number of possessions per game increased to 16-18.
This explanation makes sense. If Team A recovers an Team B’s turnover say on Team B’s 20 yard line followed by a quick strike for a score, Team A in effect has ‘gained’ an additional possession that it may not otherwise have had. If Team B instead held the ball for 6 minutes and punted the ball to Team A’s 10 yard line. Now, not only has Team A’s offense been held off the field for the 6 minutes, it must also drive the length of the field for a potential score. What may have been a 45 second possession has now been increased to 6 minutes plus the additional time it takes to get down the field.
The corollary to this is that when Team A increases its number of possessions per game, so does Team B. However, if Team A’s offense if more prolific then Team B’s offense, then Team A is the beneficiery of the increased possessions.
Texas Tech in contrast has averaged about 13 possessions per game in the Big 12. That’s why it makes sense for teams like Nebraska to devise a game plan which limit’s TTU’s number of possessions. However, its easier said than done, because most offenses make mistakes, and now its much harder to execute against an improved TTU defense.
Against Nebraska, TTU was held to only 8 possessions for four quarters – 5 possessions less than its per game average. Nebraska’s played mistake-free football most of the game, executed a good game plan against a TTU defense still trying to find its feeet, and was able to keep TTU’s offense off the field for long stretches of time. This game plan was effective. TTU’s offense was able to score on 5 of 8 possessions (not including overtime), which is very close to our average scoring rate of 64% per possession. The average duration per scoring drive in that game was 3:01. Our scoring drives only amounted to 15 minutes. We only had the ball of 19:48 the whole game. Had Tech been abe to utilize five more possesions as it is accustomed (which would have increased TTU’s time of possession another 10-12 minutes), at its average success rate, Tech could have scored three more scores while Nebraska, perhaps, may have been able to generate one more score.
It won’t be in OU’s interest to increase the number of possessions, because TTU’s offense is significantly more lethal than OU’s.
I expect OU’s game plan will be to try to slow things down as Nebraska did. Even if TTU scores at a rate of 50% of all possessions – its lowest scoring rate this season – if TTU is granted 12 possessions you can expect us to score about 6 times (TDs and FGs).
The addition of a stronger running game now enables us to increase our time of possession – a new dynamic which we did not previously have. Against OSU our average time of possession during scoring drives was 4:02. We scored 8 times in that contest which accounted for 32:16 time of possession on scoring drives alone. We held the ball for 34:57 the entire game (the other two drives were short circuited by turnovers).
Stoops may or may not know how to play against Tech. Their best game plan will be to limit TTU’s possessions, try to get ahead as early as possible to dilute Tech’s running attach, continue to be aggressive on trying to create takeaways, and try to limit TTU’s scoring possessions to less 50% of their overall possessions. If OU can pull that off, they’ll probably win the game.
However, if TTU holds onto the ball, is able to maintain its average scoring rate per possession, and maintains an average of about four minute scoring possessions, I don’t care if you’re Stoops, Meyer or the jerk-off at Alabama, you’re going to be in for a long night.
Go Red Raiders!!
by LondonRaider on Nov 12, 2008 7:56 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
We may be saying the same thing
My point was that each team gets to touch the ball roughly the same number of times in a game in which they play one another. The only exceptions I can come up with are 1) starting and ending a half with the ball, in which case you are +1, or 2) an onside kick in which case possession may never change, though I suppose this would be scored as +1 possession.
When I first read the post, I thought that you meant 18 possessions is head to head competition with Tech over the past 5 meetings of the teams. You seem to be implying 5 games this season in which the two teams have not met.
If Tech is scoring on a higher % of possessions, Tech has an advantage in a game in which they are playing an opponent that scores on a lower % of possessions.
by NM99 on Nov 12, 2008 8:39 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
The nagging fumbled snaps might figure into that turnover battle if we don’t get that fixed. I cringe every time I see our second possession against UT; we came within inches of giving them that safety right back. Considering how close the game was, we were lucky to get away with 4 bobbles (iirc) againt the Horns, and lucky we didn’t need the lost possession (and 7 points) against OSU (2 possessions if you count the muffed handoff).
by TT_ on Nov 11, 2008 9:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
TEXAS TECH'S NEW MENTAL PROSPECTIVE
In the past, we have beat OU at home a few times but struggeled a little bit in Norman….I told my friend last year that us beating OU last year had nothing to do with home field advantage..It was a new defense..Ever since the middle of last season our offense and defense has gave each other confidence in each other…I played on great high school football team that went to state and that was excactly what we had.“confidence and a team attitude” Once a team has that, it is no longer important what fans are there and where your at..All you care about is not letting the man next to you down..THAT’S WHAT TECH HAS THIS YEAR AND WE WILL LIGHT THEM UP JUST LIKE OSU AND TX!!!!
by dirkdiglerttu on Nov 11, 2008 10:06 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Target Boomer Sooner...
Folks it won’t matter where the game is played. Norman, Dallas or Arkadelphia.
You are seeing a team which displays the aforementioned mental toughness required to execute without paying attention to "white noise" . Media thy name is..drivel.. Fellow Pirates this game is going to hinge on TTU Defensive line staying power. Tip Bradford passes hurry him and … Limit the rushing attempts of OU finally get 3- 4 stops . Take away that powerful OU run perhaps get 1-2 takeaways to boot. This puts the ball back into the Air Raids control – this they will do. The O line is better than any the Sooners have seen. Again not new concept but the possession(s) capped by scores. And it needs to be touchdowns not FG’s (remember last year’s missed Trlica try in the 3rd quarter) and the Raiders build the insurmountable 2 plus score lead. Rush for over 100 yards get those all important 20(+) touches by running backs.
This is also a good place to talk about momentum. The entire season has been building towards this event. Yes Oklahoma is good but they aren’t as demonstrably focused as this 08 Raider team. It’s like Tsunami not fast but overwhelming in the total amount of energy delivered. OU will have great moments but the Raiders overcome each event and score again at will.
Shorten sail and standby to Away boarders’ a Sooner treasure galleon awaits a plundering…
by centexraider on Nov 16, 2008 9:20 AM CST reply actions 0 recs
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