techs dline has been playing well the last couple of games and ou will not beable to get to harrell. as long as tech can stop demarco murray they will win

Just a minor mis-type on your scores. And a Reminder, while grinning ear-to-ear.

against OSU is wrong. S/B 56-20.

placed a score on the board here in Buda, just south of Austin. My prediction, as well as those of others here are:
Me_Tech Ex: Tech-52, OU-28
MC_OU Ex: Tech-31, OU-45
TI_Tech Ex: Tech-52, Ou-49
GM_Tech Ex: Tech-24, OU-45
Now, I think I may have won TI over, barely, but GM is still floundering. And OU is dilusional. I have HIGH hopes. I also hope most other Tech fans feel the same. WRECK ’EM TECH!

I think one possible explanation, and I haven’t pored over drive charts or anything to see if this is true, is that in all of their wins, I think they played second-stringers for much of the second half. Defenses may keep the starters in, thus negatively skewing conversion %, shortening drives, and causing more possessions, which leads right back to more failed third-down attempts.

If anybody want to check drive charts from the game, that’d be nice. I have essays to work on.

Early prediction: Tech 49, Oklahoma 42. OU leads at the half 28-21, but it’s tied 35-35 after three. Short depth on defense costs the Sooners late.

Two words – zero turnovers.

I see this game playin our like last year. Sure Sam will probably play the whole game this year but the real key last year was stoppin the run. We are even better this year on both sides of the ball in the line. Our depth in the D-line will help greatly and I think the only way Harrell gets sacked is when he holds the ball too long. This will be back and forth. We have a great offense on a roll and for arguments sake OU has a tick better stats than us on the Offense side but I think our depth on the defense is much better than theirs(amazingly) again we saw this last year!!!!! So offense must score TD’s and we just need 2 or 3 stops in the middle of the game and continue to make them play catch-up. Also, I have confidence that Harrell will lead this team. He has won several games on comebacks and just how many has Bradford won? Did he bring them back against Texas this year? Harrell did!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! Wreck’em Tech

With Seth here. I don’t see anyone putting 50 on our D. I have heard the comments from Switzer and others (“we have better players”) and I don’t get it. What teams are they watching? They have a great offense, but maybe not as good as UT and OSU. We were told OSU had more “pro” players than anyone we would face. Our D matches up well, and has much more depth, so expect them not to wear out as early as OU will. They have two good wins against teams we would probably hang 60 on (Cincinnati and TCU), and they’ve done a good job of running it up against the middle/lower half of the Big 12 schedule. Their D has never run up against an offensive line as big, strong, and fast as ours, and whomever says that they have “better players” hasn’t watched the rest of our offense, obviously. Ok, so here is how I see it going. Based on their horrible special teams, I see at least one kickoff/punt return for a touchdown, and at least one Pick 6. If our D can stop them 2 or 3 times (which seems likely with their third down conversion rate), I don’t see them getting more than the mid thirties in points. Give them 7 for home field and I say they could, if they are better than I imagine, put 42 up. But, as Seth says, our Offense should hang AT LEAST 50 on them. I’ll be conservative and say 52.

Tech 52, OU 42 is a reasoned guess.
Tech 56, OU 35 is what I think will happen.

And of course this is all supposing that they don’t get flustered and fall apart like OSU did, who I believe will beat them the next game.

If we get a runback for a TD in the first quarter, and the Pick 6 in the first half, all bets are off.

Peace

With Seth here. I don’t see anyone putting 50 on our D. I have heard the comments from Switzer and others (“we have better players”) and I don’t get it. What teams are they watching? They have a great offense, but maybe not as good as UT and OSU. We were told OSU had more “pro” players than anyone we would face. Our D matches up well, and has much more depth, so expect them not to wear out as early as OU will. They have two good wins against teams we would probably hang 60 on (Cincinnati and TCU), and they’ve done a good job of running it up against the middle/lower half of the Big 12 schedule. Their D has never run up against an offensive line as big, strong, and fast as ours, and whomever says that they have “better players” hasn’t watched the rest of our offense, obviously. Ok, so here is how I see it going. Based on their horrible special teams, I see at least one kickoff/punt return for a touchdown, and at least one Pick 6. If our D can stop them 2 or 3 times (which seems likely with their third down conversion rate), I don’t see them getting more than the mid thirties in points. Give them 7 for home field and I say they could, if they are better than I imagine, put 42 up. But, as Seth says, our Offense should hang AT LEAST 50 on them. I’ll be conservative and say 52.

Tech 52, OU 42 is a reasoned guess.
Tech 56, OU 35 is what I think will happen.

And of course this is all supposing that they don’t get flustered and fall apart like OSU did, who I believe will beat them the next game.

If we get a runback for a TD in the first quarter, and the Pick 6 in the first half, all bets are off.

Peace

When looking at the schedules against each other, I thought the scores against common opponents was interesting. Tech limited their opponents to less points than OU did against, Texas, A&M, Kansas, Kansas State. I believe these scores would be lower for both teams if in the blowouts we did not go to our second string defenses, and have them score in “garbage time”. I believe our defensive numbers can be a little misleading/deceptive due to these facts.

Also, as far as national rankings go, I think our (Big 12) defenses would be ranked higher; however due to a large number of Blow-outs, and teams scoring against Tech, OU, Texas, and OSU in garbage time our numbers are a little skewed. I am not saying that all games have been blow-outs or that all points have been in garbage time, but when you’re beating a team by 3 scores or more, as a number of Big 12 schools have, giving up 2-3 scores against your second stringers isn’t really all that bad, especially when your second string offenses are still able to put up points.

I have mentioned before my believe that possessions are key. LondonRaider talked a little about this, too. Basically, the argument is that in a game, both teams get the ball the same number of times. You only score on a fraction of your possessions. So if there are more exchanges of possession, each team has more opportunities to score.

Here is a breakdown on what Texas Tech and Oklahoma are doing per possession in conference play. I am using conference play because 5/6 of the teams played are the same to date. This actually favors OU a bit because the one game difference is they played Baylor and we played OSU.

                                                                               Tech OU
Average Possessions per Game 14.1 18
Points Scored per Possession 3.50 2.92
Points Allowed per Possession 1.87 1.71

Based on this, more possessions in the game will help Tech more than OU. If we take the averages of everything, we get 16 possessions, Tech 41.6, OU 38.4.

Conclusion: Tech by 3.

Man, looking at the stats, these two teams are almost identical in their strengths and weaknesses. The biggest gap would be OUs advantage running the ball. We’re vastly improved in that area this year, but lag pretty far behind OU in that category.

But in darn near every other stat category, we are so close together you can’t really say one has a distinct advantage over the other. Turnovers, offense, scoring, total defense, passing defense (we both suck a** at that), total defense, passing, scoring defense, interceptions, rush defense (we give up literally 1/10 of a yard less than OU per game – 107.4 to 107.5), etc etc.

OU ranks out slightly higher than Tech in some offensive categories, including scoring and QB efficiency. Graham has more yards and fewer INTs, though it’s not statistically significant.

So, how do you make a pick on this game? I’ve been noodling it around in my head for two weeks and still can’t find a solid, logical (i.e. not emotional or rooting interest) reason to pick Okla OR Tech to win this one.

But games like this one tend to go against conventional wisdom. Everyone is calling for a shootout, but it’s basically strength vs. strength and weakness vs. weakness. This could very well be another UT type game where neither team hits 40…or it could be a 4-OT thriller with both teams hitting 60. I need more time…or a drink.

I think that this game will look more like the Texas game in scoring.

When OU has been pushed by a good team, they fail to score more than 40. I do not see this happening unless we use zone pass defense which Bradford would tear apart and then shove it down our throats.

If we stick with the cover 1 or cover 2 man under schemes I expect a core of 45- 38.

I expect Tech to come out and just dominate the first half and stun the OU team. Then I see OU climbing back into the game much like Texas give Tech a few heart stoping moments before Harrell and Crabtree finally put the final score out of reach with last 1:30 left and OU needing two scores and can not get it done.

My key to the game: Interceptions. OU leads the Big XII in ints, as far as I’m aware, and that has been the difference maker against KSU (4 ints in the first half), KU (2 ints, 14 points off, the final margin of the game), and against Nebraska where, if i remember correctly, they had a pick 6 to start out the game and picked up another turnover soon after.

The key to this game: Graham Harrell must NOT have one of his Missouri-like performances.