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5 Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose: Oklahoma Edition

 

 

Reason #1: Bradford Bombs

This is a pretty amazing statistic. Of Oklahoma's 360 pass attempts, 42 of those completions have gone for 25+ yards. Now that doesn't sound too impressive, but when you consider the usual Big 12 suspects, that's by far and away the head of the class: Texas Tech - 34, Missouri - 32, Kansas 32, Texas - 30 and Oklahoma State - 24. This may be the biggest reason for fear on my part, is Bradford's propensity to complete long passes and Texas Tech's sometimes problem with allowing them. There is no one better in the conference at connecting down the field than Oklahoma's quarterback Sam Bradford and we've all witnessed how easy it is to get back in the game with a couple of ong throws to a talented receiver, albeit a freshman receiver.

Reason #2: Consistently Making Plays

I think some credit needs to go to OU's defense. They've been a little maligned for their lack of ability to stop opponents, but they are doing one thing that I've always thought is incredibly important, which is make plays. Currently, Oklahoma is first in turnover margin at 1.6 and tied with Texas Tech with 24 forced turnovers. The Sooners are 2nd in the conference in sacks (34.0), 2nd in tackles for loss (80.0), 3rd in interceptions (13) and 3rd in forced fumbles. That's one hell of a play-making group and that's in spite of a number of injuries along their front line. I think it's awfully lofty to expect a number of turnovers on either team in this game, but OU has consistently put itself in position to make plays and be opportunisic enough to create turnovers all year long.

Reason #3: This Is A New Spotlight

Texas Tech has been in big games, but not quite like this. This has been once in a lifetime for me and once in a lifetime for a number of these players, coaches, administrative staff and anyone else associated with the program. That's a little bit of pressure for a grown individual, but that's a lot of pressure for 18 to 21 year old football players who may not have the same idea of history, and mediocre seasons, and how a single win over an opponent can change all of that. It's a delicate balance for Leach to handle as it's probably important to demonstrate the magnitude of the game, without feeling like you're Atlas with the world on your shoulders.

Reason #4: Sustained Running Game

Oklahoma is not going to give up in the running game. Oklahoma State ran the ball 34 times and Texas ran the ball 28 times, again, with varying success, however Oklahoma will not go quietly simply passing the ball. I think it's well known that OU's worst game rushing the ball was against TCU where OU only managed 25, but the key here is that there was 36 attempts. I realize that this is not encouraging news for Sooner fans, but the thing that is perhaps the most impressive is that OU continued to run the ball. A couple of games after TCU, the Sooners only managed 48 yards on 26 carries, but since then, OU has rushed the ball with quite a bit of success: (Kansas) 44-206; (Kansas St.) 45-273; (Nebraska) 40-193; and (Texas A&M) 38-328. Oklahoma is committed to running the ball and I'm thinking that you can expect 40 carries on Saturday night.

Reason #5: Third Downs

Texas Tech is first in the Big 12 at converting third downs at 57.81%, but Oklahoma is at a conference best 30.14% in stopping opponents at converting third downs. Nebraska, Texas and Oklahoma State were also very good at stopping third downs, and they had very little success, however, only the Kansas game was on the road, while Texas and Oklahoma State were both on at home. I've maintained all year that this team is completely unaffected by whatever happens on the field, but I'm admittedly worried about getting down if there are successive three-and-outs, while OU is able to put points on the board.  I would not be surprised to see the crowd, playing on the road, and a slightly unfamiliar situation cause Texas Tech to convert those third downs we've become accustomed to watching.

Related: 5 Reasons Texas Tech Will Win: Oklahoma Edition.

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All nice ideas but........

I’m completely sold on this team being vastly different. I don’t think the crowd will effect the offense at all. I think we don’t get beat deep at all because we will play bend don’t break D and really try to stop the run. I have predicted 45-35 Tech but both teams may play keep away and so it really may not be as high a scoring a game as we think. That was an overlooked item in the Texas game as our best D was that we kept Colt off the field and that maybe the same here—- keep Sam off the field. Both our lines are better and deeper than OU. And until I’m proven wrong I just don’t think the OU defense is anywhere close to as good as they have been in the past. As I have said before even without Sam last year wasn’t their “superior” athletes on D suppose to shut us down? Yet we scored 34 and our Offense is even better now!! Anyway, I think Tech does believe they will win and there actually real facts to back it up!!!! Wreck’em TECH!!!!!

by techgolf44 on Nov 20, 2008 2:04 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Thanks for the stats about 25+ yard plays. It kind of sheds the myth of OSU being a big play offense. I would also like to know to whom Bradford completes most of those throws and are they downfield throws or are they short throws with large YAC?

And I suspect this is impossible to find, but I’m going to guess OU’s 3rd down defense is a result of long 3rd down conversion chances. Conversely, Tech’s 3rd down conversion rate is probably high because of regular short 3rd down distances. But, I bet Tech also probably leads the Big 12 in 3rd down conversions of 6+ yards. In which case, we’re still left with what we already know: the Texas Tech offense is unlike any in the Big 12 and defenses cannot contain it.
  

by Jason Roberts on Nov 20, 2008 2:05 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

Well, the short answer is

that Sam Bradford is comfortable in all stages of the passing game. He can drop back in the pocket, he can throw on the run, and he completes passes for short, intermediate, and long gains with a kind of freakish level of accuracy. His receivers are good, but Bradford makes it easy on them with throws that always seem to hit the receiver in stride. http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=YzrlT5yBLWM is some tape of Bradford’s play in the Red River Shootout loss, mostly out of OU’s 4 receiver set, and even with UT’s pass rush teeing off, he stands in the pocket and delivers a number of excellent passes despite taking some pretty big shots (it wasn’t until fairly late in the third quarter that UT’s pass rush finally forced him into key mistakes, and OU’s inability to run the ball should take most of the blame for that).

by mojavereject on Nov 20, 2008 3:26 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

correction,

a lot of these plays come from their three receiver set, with OU’s tight-end (#18) Gresham absolutely victimizing UT’s secondary on a number of plays, lining up at both TE and WR positions.

by mojavereject on Nov 20, 2008 3:32 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

OU will Win Saturday

Texas beats A & M. OU loses to OK St and TX beats MO and goes to the BCS and wins another national championship for Mack Brown!

by Bobcats on Nov 20, 2008 4:40 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

sorry buddy, if OU loses to Oklahoma State after beating TTU, TTU will be going to the Big XII championship game and makes the end-of-season BCS picture into a mess.

by kayakyakr on Nov 20, 2008 4:46 PM CST to parent up reply reply actions actions   0 recs

regarding reason # 2...

 I’ll take it as a good sign that before the Oklahoma State game the following info was presented as a possible reason Tech might lose:

“OSU is 3rd (5th in rushing and 6th in passing) in the conference and 76 yards a game better in 2008 than in 2007. The numbers don’t lie. Oklahoma State is significantly better on defense,”

 Result: Texas Tech’s best offensive performance this year, maybe the best vs. a quality opponent EVER! Texas Tech 56 – OSU – 20.

Actually, many times, the numbers DO lie. Year after year, I have seen teams that have not yet played Tech come in with a pass defense that is rated pretty high — until they play Tech.

On the flip side – OU’s numbers on defense also give an indication that Tech can be very successful at what we do.

Either way it turns out, some numbers are going to lie, or at least be caught stretching the truth!

It might very well be that Oklahoma STATE is the best team in OKie-land by season’s end. Wouldn’t surprise me a bit, regardless of what the numbers on the stat sheet say – OU still has to play the game.

by natsnagrom on Nov 20, 2008 5:34 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

If anybody's interested...

…I did a majorly nerdy OU-Tech preview at Football Outsiders today…

Rock M Nation
Thrust nunchuk upward!

by The Boy on Nov 21, 2008 4:21 PM CST reply reply actions actions   0 recs

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