BCS RANKINGS - Leap Frog Edition

by adubb05 on Nov 25, 2008 9:05 AM CST Comment 52 comments

If I was the infamous BCS computer this is what I would come up with and why. Researching this and writing this down was as much informative as it was therapeutic. I am so frustrated right now I can't see straight.

1.Alabama: #9 Clemson, #3 Georgia, #16 LSU .....Clemson is having a losing season, LSU is 7-4, Georgia is pretty good but clearly overhyped
Loss:0 Until someone beats them their number 1

2.Oklahoma: #24 TCU, #16 Kansas, #2 Texas Tech......TCU is good, Kansas is a joke, Tech was the hottest team in the country
Loss: Texas @ neutral field

3.Texas Tech: #23 Kansas, #1 Texas, #9 Oklahoma State......Kansas is pretty bad, Texas was the hottest team in the country and OSU game was hyped big after they almost beat Texas in Austin
Loss: Oklahoma on the road

4.Texas: #1 Oklahoma, #11 Missouri, #6 Oklahoma State.......Oklahoma was the hottest team in the country, Missouri was coming off a tough loss, and O State was hot
Loss: Texas Tech on the road

5.Florida: #4LSU, #6 Georgia, #25 South Carolina .........LSU is 7-4, Georgia was a quality win in a hyped game, South Carolina was barely hanging on to the top 25
Loss: Ole Miss, unranked and at Florida

6.Utah: #12 TCU, #14 BYU.....Both quality teams but I question how they would perform week to week in the Big 12 or SEC
Loss: 0

7.USC: #5 Ohio State, #23 Oregon, #21 Cal......Ohio State was a quality win under a lot of media hype. Cal and Oregon's rankings are generous
Loss: unranked Oregon State at Oregon State

8.Penn State: #22 Illinois, #9 Ohio State, #15 Michigan State ....Beating OSU at the horseshoe was huge. The other two not so much.
Loss: unranked Iowa at Iowa

Anyway, my conclusion is yeah we got smoked by OU. However, we smoked Oklahoma State at home and Texas smoked Missouri at home. Games like those happen. That doesn't mean OU is the greatest team in the world nor does it mean Texas or Texas Tech is. I believe that if you look at wins and losses Texas Tech should be #3 in the BCS. Its like leap frog when we were kids. Oklahoma was lined up first and got leaped by Texas. Then we leaped both Oklahoma and Texas. Then Oklahoma leaped Texas and Us. At no time was Texas allowed to leap us when Oklahoma did because thats not how leap frog works. I hate admitting it but If OU wins out they deserve to play in the NC, but if not then we do. I'm sick of hearing the media talk about our nonconference schedule. Who gives a bleep. You want us to play TCU and Cinncinatti? Okay lets do it. How about Arkansas? Bring them on. I think it's ridiculous that we're questioning the strength of schedule of the only team in college football to notch 2 top 10 victories in back to back weeks. Unfortunately were having to debate with two teams that have more money than god (OU and Texas).

This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Double-T Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Double-T Nation's writers or editors.

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This has been my point for a month!

Every argument they (pundits) use to justify OU and Texas can be used to justify Tech! Yet we got no consideration then and we’ll get none now!

They say that timing of losses is what nailed us. But a loss is a loss whenever it happens in my book. All year long, we got the national shaft and here is where it is beginning to hurt!

While our chances to get to the NC are pinned on the likelhood of OSU winning Saturday, we still have a chance! Yet, no one nationally seems to see that.

by Red Raider in South GA on Nov 25, 2008 10:41 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

No, Tech doesn't have a chance.

You guys can go to the Fiesta and win the Big 12. But, there’s no way you jump USC and Texas again. Not after a 44 point undressing on national TV. You would need both Texas and USC to lose.

by the1austin on Nov 25, 2008 1:14 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

In addition

Alabama would need to lose to Auburn and Florida would need to lose to Alabama.

by Tech92 on Nov 25, 2008 1:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Of course we can.

We’re already close in the computers. I don’t think it’s the case that voters will necessarily keep an 11-1 Texas ahead of a 12-1 Texas Tech. That all assumes an OU loss to OSU and us winning out, but in that event it’s hard to imagine why voters would keep Texas above Texas Tech.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 4:27 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Nope

Look at the BCS averages (which is what they use for ranking)…Tech is wayyy behind UT.

Texas has a BCS score of .9209
Tech has a BCS score of .7789

We’re out of it (national title) unless the most bizzare set of circumstances play out. Just about every team in front of us would have to lose for Tech to make up that much ground in one week + championship week. Not gonna happen. We had our shot at OU and laid a fat turd on the field. We can still sneak into the Big XII, but again, that relies on OU losing.

by Tech92 on Nov 25, 2008 5:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Obviously, I disagree.

We are currently 4th in the computers with UT at 2nd. Since we’re contemplating a loss by OU, that moves us immediately behind UT. They can do little to help their computer rankings… we can do much with a victory over Missouri, who the computers still consider a top 15 team. The idea that we’re somehow insurmountably behind UT is wrong wrong wrong, at least where the computers are concerned.

The above already contemplates OU losing, so there they fall. Alabama or Florida must lose as well. All that we require is for voters to reevaluate their position after the Big-12 Championship game (that we win) and that’s hardly difficult to imagine. Voters are no doubt influenced currently by the three-way-tie currently inhabiting the top of the rankings and that three-way-tie necessarily has us on the bottom. If and when OU loses, that three-way-tie disappears and voters are left to choose between only us and UT. That comparison is extremely favorable to us if we’re 12-1 with a victory over Missouri, as our schedules will approach indistinguishability, or at least to the degree that’s possible, and we’ll have both an extra victory, a Big-12 Championship, and a head-to-head victory over UT.

So, since you disagree, we can agree to disagree. But “Nope” is not going to be taken seriously as a response, nor is simply citing the current BCS score. A 12-1 Tech team contemplates a lot of help in the schedule department, it contemplates the elimination of the single greatest hurdle to our not being ranked higher (that being the current logjam at the top of the Big 12 south), and it contemplates us winning a Conference Championship. All those things play enormously in our favor. They will all be considered when voters prepare their final 1 and 2, and it won’t necessarily be a matter of us LEAPING anyone, as that’s not how the final ballot necessarily shakes out. Voters may completely decide to simply swap us with UT, opting to put us over the top given our head-to-head against them.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 7:18 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

excellent!

I agree, we still have a prayer. It may take a miracle, but we’re not out yet.

Wes Welker can't be stopped.

by 10forTech on Nov 25, 2008 7:44 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

This argument . .

is getting a lot more play than some may realize. I’ve seen at least 4 places where a 12-1 conference champion Texas Tech should get the nod over an 11-1 Texas.

I still think it’s a bit of a longshot, but if I were a BCS coach I’m not sure I’d want to set that precedent—I beat Team A, have the same amount of losses as Team, played an extra conference game, and won the conference title and yet I’m not in the national title game. Remember LSU’s leap over idle Georgia (and it’s not like LSU played well in that game versus Tennessee).

by DoubleB on Nov 25, 2008 9:55 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It sucks that it’s out of our players’ hands at this point…all they can do is play Baylor and maybe Mizzou.

by Tech92 on Nov 25, 2008 10:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I should add

that the computers with a victory over Missouri would show Tech and Texas to be very, very close. You’d have to find the votes in the polls.

by DoubleB on Nov 25, 2008 9:56 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

A Prayer For Texas Tech

My soul magnifies the Lord,
and my spirit rejoices in God my Savior.
He who is mighty has done great things for us, and holy is His name.
And His mercy is on those who fear Him from generation to generation.
He has shown strength with His arm:
He has scattered the proud in the imagination of their hearts.
He has put down the mighty from their thrones,
and exalted those of low degree.
He has filled the hungry with good things;
and the rich He has sent empty away.

Wes Welker can't be stopped.

by 10forTech on Nov 25, 2008 10:49 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Oklahoma St.

is coming off a bye week.

Wes Welker can't be stopped.

by 10forTech on Nov 26, 2008 10:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It can happen. It’s happened before.

Wes Welker can't be stopped.

by 10forTech on Nov 26, 2008 11:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, It’s happened before.

Wes Welker can't be stopped.

by 10forTech on Nov 26, 2008 11:28 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

BCS rankings are compiled less than 24 hours after Saturday games are complete. They’ve always been too reactionary and it doesn’t seem like voters take the time to really analyze what they’re doing. Add that to the fact that it seemed as if everyone was too eager to write off this TTU team if/when they lost so they could get back to the more comfortable and familiar UT/OU discussion. At this point I would love to see us win the Big 12 just so the voters have to squirm and come up with explanations for where they rank TTU, whether it’s in the top 2 or not. I think it’s the TPCF (Traditional Powers in College Football) who have the clout to sustain the BCS and they do it because it gives them an advantage every year from day one. The TPCF hate the fact that TTU has a chance to be in it, but TTU has been too big of a story and plays in too big of a conference for them to blow off, like they do to others like Ball State, Utah, or Boise State. A National Champion shouldn’t be a judgement call and everyone knows it, but the TCPF are the only ones who can change it and they don’t want to. So while you and I and others think TTU should still have a chance at it, they realistically don’t.

Still, I’m tired of reading obituaries for the Texas Tech season. It’s not over yet…

by jeraco on Nov 25, 2008 2:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

polls are flawed and NCAA needs playoff

Just looking at the AP polls for the year
preseason 5 are now not in top 10
wk 1 5 are now not in top 10
wk 2 5 are now not in top 10
wk 3 5 are now not in top 10
and so on until you reach wk 7, then and only then do the rankings seem to fit and only do teams move in and out of the top 10 (in the 7 thru 10 slots).

Do away with polls that count for anything until at least week 7 or 8. If you want your conference to play for the National Championship, you must have a conference championship. If you are not in a conference, too bad – you don’t getta go.

by blackbeard on Nov 25, 2008 11:31 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Disagree

I’m sorry but I have to disagree with you on this ranking (Tech #3). I’m as big a Tech fan as any but after the loss to OU, I can’t put this team at #3. I understand your point about having only one loss but it was a very bad loss somthing the other one loss teams do not have. Penn St loss was pretty bad but the USC loss does not look as bad as we thought when it happened. Your point about OSU lossing bad to Tech and Mizz bad loss to Texas, thats why they are not in the top ten (lost 2). I would put Tech at number #5 after a 65 to 21 loss.

I love Tech and am proud of this team for the 11-1 record (gonna happen) but after the bad loss, they have to drop because of how bad it was. Time to ralley the troops and be proud of the opp this team still has to win the Big 12 (with help) and play in a BCS game. Just my opinion.

Go Tech.

by GPD on Nov 25, 2008 11:49 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I totally agree with 'disagree'

I totally agree with ‘disagree’ -
We got smoked by OU and # 3 isn’t fitting - #4 or 5 would be the more appropriate placement. I also agree with the previous sentiments that we are generally getting the shaft from the national audience — We do have the same record as the others, and as usual deserve more respect ((7th!!??? geesh)).

by CoryCardwell on Nov 25, 2008 11:58 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I understand what your saying however....

I believe a blowout loss to the #5 team in the BCS at their field isn’t as bad as

1. Florida’s loss to unranked Ole Miss at Florida. Yes at the “Swamp”
2. USC’s loss to unranked Oregon State at Oregon State – A team that lost to Stanford
3. Penn State’s loss to unranked Iowa at Iowa – Have you watched Iowa play this year?
4. Texas – We beat them head to head. If your going to reward OU with a head to head and work off most recent history then you have to stay consistent and work backwards. Our victory occured 3 weeks ago and Texas’ victory over OU occured 6 weeks ago. The media wants to make late season losses hurt and apparently wants to make Big 12 South victories more valuable late in the season.

Everyones knee jerk reaction is to throw us out because of the beat down. Losing to an unranked team in far worse in my opinion. Not to mention the top 10 teams we have beaten have actually held their ranks pretty well compared to the top 10 and 25 teams the other guys have beaten. IMO

by adubb05 on Nov 25, 2008 12:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

True dat!

by natkcole on Nov 25, 2008 2:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Interesting side note, of the three games, all were against highly rated teams, but arguably Texas lost the “worst” matchup (if you only go by the team comparisons) and yet gained the most benefit.

AP Rankings, BCS added when available:
UT v. OU (#5 v. #1)
TT v. UT (#6 v. #1) or (#7 v. #1)
OU v. TT (#5 v. #2) (same in BCS)

The UT win cost OU 3 spots (#1 down to #4 the next week) and gained UT 4 spots (#5 → #1). Our win cost UT 3 spots (#1 → #4) and gained us 4 spots (#6 → #2). Our loss cost us 5 spots (#2 → #7) and gained OU 2 spots (#5 → #3). Now if you want to argue we lose big for our spanking, that’s obviously been factored in, but if that hurts us so badly, why doesn’t OU see the comparable benefit? Either margin of victory matters, or it doesn’t.

by HeeroTX on Nov 25, 2008 2:07 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

A&M (primetime 2012)

What is your deal.
First off I disagree with this the #3 ranking this person is talking about after the OU game. Second of all your an AGGIE FAN so you have no room to talk anything football this year. As a Tech fan, I dislike everything aggie but I find myself hoping they beat Texas this year. Margin of victory does matter big time and thats what hurts Tech in the ranking, as well it should (we all know that Tech fans)

There is a nice blog called the 12th man try it out. bye

by GPD on Nov 25, 2008 3:41 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

I try to not even think about this mess. The whining that people call logic is ridiculous. If TTU is so bad, how does UT explain losing to them? Oh yeah, they were tired and on the road. Weak BS. What about the OSU team that nearly beat UT at their place and then got creamed in Lubbock? How come the whorns didn’t cream them. They were at home and not ‘tired’ yet. The level of denial is unbelievable..

What amazes me is how no team has been able to maintain any type of dominance throught the conference schedule. We came close but then peed down our legs in historic fashion. How could OU do that to us and then lose to the whiners that we beat? For that matter, how could you lose every statistical measure, trail the entire game except for 1:28 when you led by a whopping 1 point, then convince yourself that the loss was a fluke? Must be something in the mountain oysters.

Screw it. I’m gonna root for us against Baylor and then go where the masters of football tell us to go. If OU loses, I’ll take the Big 12 CG and not feel the least bit undeserving. Let UT whine to the BCS gods till the cows come home. If you ask me, any system that encourages and even rewards poor sportsmanship needs to be tossed anyway.

by TT_ on Nov 25, 2008 3:47 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

nice!

by bleedredblack on Nov 26, 2008 1:22 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

My rankings would be more fluid.

The only reason there’s some dispute about the order in which OU-TTU-UT are ranked is because those teams all beat each other. That’s what creates the issue. Under the circumstances, throwing out the head-to-head matchups is the only fair thing, because you can no more argue that Tech should be above UT than you can that Texas should be above Oklahoma. Saying that we beat Texas is as — probably less, actually — compelling a point in Re: the rankings as saying that UT beat OU. You obviously weren’t compelled by UT beating OU. But you are compelled by us beating Texas?

You look at the totality of circumstances and I have a hard time seeing how TTU is above either OU or Texas. Ignoring head-to-head records, or even deemphasizing them as inconclusive, we don’t have much in common with either OU or Texas’ schedule. Our non-con was worse than OU’s. Our conference schedule was worse than Texas’. Margins of victory favors OU and Texas. SOS favors Texas.

None of which is to say that we’re resigned to 3rd fiddle behind UT and OU. But we’re guilty, here, of the same faulty logic that says Texas MUST go ahead of OU. Where a three-way-tie exists, you can’t simply resolve the head to head in your team’s favor by putting the one you beat below you and the one who beat you ahead. That ignores the twisting logic and SOMEONE gets screwed, as some team inevitably has to be ranked below a team they beat.

But if OU loses to OSU, head-to-head is no longer irrelevant. We’re 11-1 if we beat Baylor, UT is 11-1 if they beat A&M. We’d still go to the Big-12 Championship for the simple reason that head-to-head matters. There are unique circumstances where head-to-head doesn’t matter, and we won’t be in it assuming an OU loss to OSU. In which case we go on to 12-1 and head-to-head suddenly becomes very, very relevant. We should then be ranked ahead of both OU and Texas, the former in virtue of their having two losses, the latter in virtue of our head-to-head win over them.

But for now, where head-to-head is either irrelevant or deemphasized, I have a hard time accepting that the rest of the available data points towards TTU over UT. I find the defense of this ranking based on leapfrogging to be totally inadequate. The simple statement:

thats not how leap frog works.

Doesn’t tell us anything. Yea, you’re right, that isn’t how leap frog works. So why, besides the result you want, should we care “how leap frog works”?

Who cares about non-con schedule? Voters? Who SHOULDN’T care about a team’s schedule? Should Utah be ahead of us? Boise State?

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 4:43 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Argument we should be trying to make is...

why should an 11-1 Texas Tech team go over an 11-1 Texas team to the Fiesta Bowl or elsewhere where a 12-1 OU is in the NC? I think Tech should go but will need to articulate that point if OU beats OSU. Same argument if OU wins against OSU but loses to Missouri. Again you have a straight 11-1 Tech vs. 11-1 Texas. Why should they go anywhere in front of us?

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 4:46 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

well crafted

by Plano Jeff on Nov 25, 2008 4:54 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

The Fiesta will

take Tech if we win the Big XII (I think that’s the right bowl…). If we don’t win the Big XII and OU does, do you seriously think the Fiesta Bowl exec committee would bypass Texas and their MUCH larger national following and MUCH larger travel party for Tech? TV ratings are in the mix and if they can swing a USC v. Texas matchup they would frankly be silly not to.

Say the unthinkable happens and we lose to Baylor, OU loses to OSU and Texas plays for the Big XII. If they win that, they play for the nice trophy. Then it comes down to either Tech, OU or Mizzou for the next BCS bid. I’ve read where it would be Mizzou/OU who gets the next BCS bid in that case.

I really think our only shot for a BCS bid is to win the Big XII. Even in that case, I have my doubts about the odds of Tech getting into the national championship game. That OU loss smells really, really bad and the voters would likely try to keep us out over OU/UT if the choice came down to it.

Summary: If we don’t win the Big XII outright, we go to the Cotton Bowl.

That doesn’t make it right, and it doesn’t give me joy – but it is the reality of it.

by Tech92 on Nov 25, 2008 5:11 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

What do you mean the Fiesta will take Tech if we win the Big XII? I thought conference champion of Big XII had auto bid to Fiesta?

If OU wins the Big XII they will go to the national championship and the Fiesta Bowl will obviously take Texas, since that three-way-tie discussed is already in play. If OU goes to the Big XII championship and loses, that’s what I view as the largest shit storm possible, but Missouri would go to the Fiesta Bowl since they are the Big XII champ auto bid. The issue then is whether we can go to the national championship as the strongest one loss team. That’s certainly a more difficult case to make without a win over Missouri, but I’m not DISMISSING an 11-1 team against an 11-1 team we beat. That’s absurd.

In either event, since our bowl chances only include auto bids or national championships, bowl execs and the like really don’t factor in whatsoever. We’re not going to the Sugar Bowl. We’re not going to the Fiesta Bowl except as conference champions. And we’re going to have a hard time making it to the NC without a Big-12 championship. “hard time” does not mean “impossible” but far less likely.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 7:22 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

We’re not going to the Fiesta Bowl except as conference champions

I’d like to add: Probably.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 7:30 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

Say the unthinkable happens and we lose to Baylor, OU loses to OSU and Texas plays for the Big XII. If they win that, they play for the nice trophy. Then it comes down to either Tech, OU or Mizzou for the next BCS bid. I’ve read where it would be Mizzou/OU who gets the next BCS bid in that case.

Well of course it would be OU? Both them and Texas Tech would be 2-losses and they’d have the head-to-head over us. That shouldn’t be shocking.

That OU loss smells really, really bad and the voters would likely try to keep us out over OU/UT if the choice came down to it.

But if OU loses it can’t be between UT/OU since one of those teams will have two losses, yes?

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 7:23 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Expand outside the Big XII

And why should Florida or USC or Penn State be ahead of either UT, OU or TTU? That’s the logic I don’t get. None of those have beaten a top 5 team and all of them lost to unranked teams (though Oregon St. could end up ranked.

by natkcole on Nov 25, 2008 5:13 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Because

while they did indeed lose, nobody was pasted like Tech was. We’ll be punished until the start of next year for that game. We simply dropped too far and you can only have two teams from one conference in the BCS.

by Tech92 on Nov 25, 2008 5:16 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Let's not dismiss losses...

we got smoked, but is losing to Ole Miss at home or Oregon State on the road, straight up, dramatically better than losing so bad to OU? I say dramatically, because our quality wins are superior to both Florida’s and Penn State’s and USC’s.

The fact we only dropped 5 spots after losing by so many points was actually very encouraging to me. It tells me that the computers still love us (they do) and that the human voters can be brought around. This all assumes we handle our business, which we might not, and that OU loses to OSU, which they might not. The albatross around our neck isn’t so much the OU loss in and of itself, but rather the 3-way-tie created by that loss. So long as the discussion is UT/OU/TTU, it will end up being OU or UT. If the discussion is OU/TTU, we’ll lose that as well. If the discussion is TTU/UT… we’re cookin’ with grease.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 7:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I appreciate your

optimism. I am assuming OU will win Sat. In that case, we are Cotton bound. If OU loses, we regain a shot at the BCS. If we lost in the conf championship game v. Mizzou, it’s Cotton. If we win, it’s Fiesta.

Getting to #2 in the BCS and a shot at the national title: I just don’t see how we can make up .142 on Texas if they beat ATM. eg. OU has a VERY slim chance of making up .0084 on Texas if they beat OSU. Our only hope is to win the Big XII and then pray like heck that the voters totally flip their ballots (the same thing OU is hoping for).

Let’s assume OU lays an egg in KC (after assuming they win Sat)…The computers do like Tech, but they like Texas a little more. So do the voters. UT is already ranked above us in the human element and computer polls. How do you visualize them moving Tech up enough (and past USC, as well) to make the NC as the #2 in the BCS?

Even if Tech wins the Big XII, I still think we have a tough row to hoe to make the national title game. Much easier, obviously. But if we don’t win it, we have almost no chance. We aren’t the darling we were two weeks ago. I’ve read in numerous blogs and sites where the 44-pt loss is recent and large enough to prevent Tech from advancing past anything but the Fiesta as conf champs.

Frankly, this site and our sister sites are the only places I’ve encountered that even includes Tech in the national title discussion. Why? Because most national writers (good bad or indifferent) don’t feel Tech “should” go anywhere ahead of UT or USC at this point. Look, I don’t like it any more than you do, SP, but it is what it is.

by Tech92 on Nov 25, 2008 9:59 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Re:

I agree that we are PROBABLY Cotton Bowl bound if OU wins on Saturday, but consider: OU wins Saturday, loses Big 12 Championship to Missouri. They are now 11-2. Texas and Texas Tech are both 11-1. What argument would there be for putting UT over Texas Tech in that situation? The three-way-tie is dead, why would Texas get the nod over Texas Tech?

I would be happy with Cotton Bowl if we lost to Missouri in Conference Championship. We’d deserve nothing more. Missouri would go to Fiesta and Texas would go to NC.

I have NO idea on what you are basing OU’s slim likelihood of passing Texas. I think they will be just about equal in the computers, and the human voters will go ga-ga for OU. The human voters ALREADY moved OU in front of Texas.

The way I visualize them moving us past Texas is that, once OU is eliminated from the three-way-tie, they have to seriously re-evaluate their rankings. And they will have weeks to do that because WE’LL be the ones playing an extra game and we would be the ones winning a conference champion. And everyday voting coaches and Harris Pollers will hear "Do we really want to send Texas to the National Championship even though they didn’t win their conference and the team that did win their conference beat them head-to-head and has a better record? How could they possibly justifying doing that?

I think if OU loses in KC we are less likely to move past Texas than if we were 12-1. That said, I’m certainly not conceding that, between two teams with identical records, the winner of a head-to-head matchup should be left behind. That only makes sense if there is some extrinsic event invalidating the head-to-head game, and that extrinsic event is and can only be Oklahoma remaining a one loss team. You’ve just hypothesized it away. What I am trying to say is that the CURRENT ranking of UT>OU>TTU only makes sense when all three are involved. If it was UT and TTU, voters will have to reevaluate why they have UT in front of TTU. If you are asking me how I literally visualize them changing their vote, I imagine a coach, I imagine him writing down names of teams on a piece of paper, I imagine him listing Texas Tech in front of Texas, and then I imagine him submitting that piece of paper as his ranking. I do the same with Harris voters. Nothing about this series of events seems the least bit miraculous to me, especially since I think it is also the only right and just thing to do.

Is there any precedent for the voters sending a non-conference champion to the title game over a conference champion with an identical record and a head-to-head advantage? Does that even seem possible? Plausible? Have you heard, explicitly, any voter say he would absolutely never put Texas Tech in front of Texas no matter what happens? Are you certain he will feel the same way if we were 12-1 Conference Champions? Why is it that every single tie-breaker in the entire universe of sports goes Record first and Head-To-Head second? And suddenly becomes irrelevant even if we’ve got MORE wins? Because we lost to Oklahoma?

My point isn’t that we’re going anyplace special, maybe they take some other team (USC?). But you can’t well argue that Texas will go in front of a Texas Tech team with an identical record, the h2h victory, and no paradigm shifting three-way-tie on which to throw out certain results.

I’m not really interested in what national writers think about Tech right now. We’re a few days removed from the worst loss of the season, of course they’re down on us. The idea that their brains are immutably set is simply too ridiculous to assume for me, because it likewise means I have to view Texas at 11-1 as somehow more deserving as a 12-1 Texas Tech. I’m not going to assume an illogical result.

“it is” not “what it is” until that happens. I refuse to concede that point just because you think it’s unlikely voters replace Texas with Texas Tech at some point in the future that contemplates a TT conference championship.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 10:39 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't mean to sound flippant.

I’m just extremely hostile to the voter reasoning that you’re suggesting. It seems very bizarre to me and for that reason I think we’re in much better shape than you think given a 12-1 record.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Nov 25, 2008 11:02 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs

I don't

take what you say as flippant, so no worries. All I’m basing this on is what I’ve read/heard by people much more connected than you or I. The voters are individuals, so who knows what they’ll ultimately do. I’m just not confident in relying on people outside the Tech bubble to make the call for us. When we have a few more seasons like this, I can really see the odds increasing should this scenario play out again. But historically, the traditional powers get benefit of the doubt if given a choice.

As for OU’s slim chances…I’m talking about how Jerry Palm explains OUs chances of moving past UT. He calls it slim…since the entire national media relies on this guy, I will too.

by Tech92 on Nov 26, 2008 9:18 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

If OU loses Big12 Campionship...

Then Texas goes to BCS (probably, but not “certainly” NC). I don’t discount the possibility of USC jumping Texas, but massive voter bias will hop UT into the BCS regardless of the head-to-head. All you need to do to confirm that is look at rankings:
-We lose to OU, we fall 5 places to #7
-UT loses to us, they fall 2 places to #3

Worse than that:
-UT beats (then) #1 OU, UT immediately jumps to #1 (from #5)
-TT beats (then) #1 UT, TT only goes to #2 (from #6)

And you KNOW there are people that would’ve still voted UT ahead of us if they could reasonably argue it. (if you look at some polls, not “important” polls, some people did ANYWAY) UT is gonna get BS “tradition” bias. We need to win the Big12 championship to go to BCS, and even then, voters are gonna try to hop UT over us into the NC.

What is great is that for the next few days every single Longhorn is gonna chant the mantra “head to head” (because that’s where they lead OU), IF Oklahoma loses (a big if) then that chant should bite em in the ass.

by HeeroTX on Nov 26, 2008 12:41 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Too many ifs

Florida has to beat Alabama.

OU has to lose to OSU and USC has to have a bad day or an additional loss.

TTech has to complete blowout Baylor like 70 to 7.

Then and only then does Tech play for not only the Big 12 Championship but a win against Missouri would get them into the NC.

Otherwise, Tech will most likely go to the Holiday bowl with an outside chance at the Cotton.

by Pablo M on Nov 26, 2008 6:09 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I don’t think the Holiday is in play. It really looks like Mizzou is headed that way if they lose the Big XII. The Cotton gets third pick in the pecking order and will take Tech over Mizzou because we have one loss and a massive fan base in Dallas.

by Tech92 on Nov 26, 2008 9:19 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

agree with Tech92

Barring a COMPLETE collapse against Baylor, we’re BCS or Cotton bowl, I don’t see us falling any lower than that. If we don’t go to Big12 Championship, then in a “worst case” scenario, UT or OU (who does) loses. Missouri then goes to BCS and UT or OU (which ever didn’t just lose to Missouri) goes to BCS. That leaves the choice between an 11-1 Tech and an 11-2 UT/OU. I’d assume we get that nod, altho if the loser is UT, they WILL look enticing. If Missouri loses the Big12 championship, then they have a worse record than us AND we’re already in Texas, so we’re going to Cotton Bowl.

If we get into the Big12 Championship, if we win, we go to BCS. If we lose Missouri goes to BCS and UT also goes BCS. (can’t think of a logical scenario that puts us in the Big12 Title game with an 11-1 OU sitting outside) That leaves 11-2 Tech v. 10-2 OU for the Cotton Bowl, I think we get the nod there.

It’s not IMPOSSIBLE we get stuck in the Holiday Bowl, but fairly unlikely right now and would basically require the Cotton Bowl thinking our fans aren’t going to show up for the closest bowl we can hit.

by HeeroTX on Nov 26, 2008 9:59 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Yes, it's a long shot, but it's possible

Florida will beat Alabama handily after pulling off a squeaker against FSU.

Oklahoma State can beat OU at home. (Did you see the Texas/OSU game?)

USC is a non-factor. They lost their chance when they choked on some Oregon St. Beaver… (Yes, Wally. They lost to the Beavers!) The only reason they’re still ranked high is because many voters want a TT/OU/UT vs. USC matchup. I’ve heard the talking heads mention this (or something similar) several times in the last 3 weeks:
"I’d like to see Texas Tech’s high powered offence against USC’s defense."

Tech will beat Baylor handily. Running up the score might work negatively against us.

Wes Welker can't be stopped.

by 10forTech on Nov 26, 2008 10:07 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

You have really thought this out.

However, when all things are considered, the Big-12 is without a doubt (South division, anyway) the toughest in the land. That being said, I think Alabama is overrated as a result. My vision would have the following:
1. Oklahoma
2. Texas Tech
3. Texas
4. Alabama
5. Penn State
6. Utah
7. USC
8. Boise State
9. Florida
10. Ball State
Just saying. BIG-12 Rocks!

TTpilk

by TTpilk645 on Nov 26, 2008 12:30 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

Florida

Really? Number 9? You don’t think they would lay it to Utah, Boise, PSU? We’ll see what they do against a really good Bama defense, but I would have to put them in my top 4 no matter what.

by Tech92 on Nov 26, 2008 4:24 PM CST reply actions 0 recs

SEC all name no real quality

I have to disagree that Alabama is a top 5 and Florida is also not a top 5. They are SEC leaders thus they are given special preference because of the media bias.

If Florida had to play OU, Tech and Texas they would come out with three loses. It would be a toss up with OSU so its possible that Florida could lose 4 if they had to play in the Big 12 south. Bama would lose 4 possibly 5 if they were in the BIg 12 south.

Florida is like Baylor but better. Shut down Tebow from running and absolutely make him have to pass to beat you and Florida struggles or loses.

Abama has an average offense and a pretty good defense. But its just not enough against high quality teams that they would have to play on a regular basis.

SEC is not the big bad power house conference they once were. No matter how much ESPN and other pudits try to hype it up to make the SEC sound better than they are. The truth is that the SEC is on its way down not up. I suspect that SEC will start to look like the big 10 if not the ACC in the next couple of years.

by Pablo M on Nov 27, 2008 2:34 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

Wow

I most vehemently disagree that Florida is ANYTHING like Baylor. At all. In any way. Tebow won the Heisman, and some may argue he’s still kinda good this year, too. Percy Harvin? I guess he’s chump change. Their defense? #9 overall in the country. Let’s assume their numbers are skewed because of bad offense and drop them 20 places. That still puts them almost 30 spots higher than UT.

C’mon, man. Be realistic. Fla would have maybe one loss if they played OU, Texas and Tech. They would demonlish OSU. The SEC may be overrated this year, but Florida is not.

by Tech92 on Nov 27, 2008 10:31 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

They

lost to an unranked Ole Miss on their home field. I don’t see them beating OU, UT, or Tech, and maybe winning a squeaker against OSU on a neutral field. If they were Tech, they’d be ranked 12th-13th. Yes, Tebow won the Heisman, and then proceeded to lead his team to a loss against Michigan in the Capitol One Bowl! Yes, Michigan; the same team who’s defense had such a hard time earlier that year against a spread offense with a running quarterback. (Appalachian St.!!!!!!!!!)

Tebow=overrated

Wes Welker can't be stopped.

by 10forTech on Nov 27, 2008 11:33 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

Tech92

You make the same mistake that all the pundits are making. You are looking too much into the Media bias and too much into the ESPN bias where they have to hype the hell out of the SEC for money concerns. After all, they spent a fortune to have the exclusive rights to televise SEC games over all others. Thus ESPN and most of the Eastern Pundits which make up better than 60% of the AP and Coaches have a stake in making the SEC greater than they are.

The point is look at USC. As bad as the Pac 10 really is, the Pundits are pushing USC as the big bad boys who are better than all others this season.

The truth is that ALL teams and ALL conferences have down times. Right now we are seeing the Big 10, Pac 10 and ACC fall significantly off of their projected hyped historical strong position. Thus they act like Texas A&M and big up the past to hide the present and the future.

The SEC defenses are OK. But are they really that good to match up to the hype? SEC has horrible offenses that does not score very many points against anyone. So is the Defenses getting more hype because they are benefiting from horrible offenses across the board?

I will use an SEC and ESPN argument to bring this home. They blast the Big 12 for not having any defense at all because of the powerful offenses in this conference. But is that really true? Or is it more like the Pro style NFL offense that came out in the early 1980s which is the grandfather of the Spread offense who was called a gimick and made defenses look bad when they really were pretty good. Think of it as the Big 12 bing the NFC and the SEC the AFC. Thus during the 1980s and 1990s the NFC was way stronger than the AFC. But the AFC eventually adopted the offensive style and improved to the point that now the AFC runs a spread type of offense and the NFC still runs the older Pro style as a general rule. Now the NFC has to play catchup.

The point here is that the SEC is overrated and in all honesty, I did not think Tebow was all that and should not have won the Heisman last year. But he is in the SEC and ESPN push like hell for him and they were negociating the big contract over the last 14 months prior to the agreed one they signed a couple months back.

Florida seems big and bad, but the truth is that Florida lives and dies with Tebow. The team can not get it done without him. Tebow has to do it all for the team to get most of their wins. Shut down Tebow where he can not run and make him actually have to pass and Florida does not do well. Ole Miss sold out to stop the run and played man up in the Secondary. They beat Florida in their own stadium.

Something Tech should have done against Oklahoma. Bad Defensive scheme and planning when everyone on the planet knew that Tech sucks against real teams in a zone only coverage defense. All our big wins had man coverage with 1 or 2 deep man under formation. Our secondary coaches are not very good and they have failed to teach coverage methods and give our boys the tools they need to actually play well in a zone.

But the point is that the SEC is not that good this year or last year. And Florida is not a top 5 team in my book.

You are right however, that on any given day any team can beat any other team. That is why its call a sport!

by Pablo M on Nov 29, 2008 3:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

It's all specualtion anyway....

OSU could beat OU, or not. A&M could beat UT, or not. Alabama could lose, Florida could lose. We could lose to Baylor, then none of it would matter. It’s ALL total speculation. I say, lets prays that everyone in the top 5 loses this week. Screw it!

Go Tech!!!

by jwhitettu on Nov 27, 2008 11:06 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

I just spent the better part of an hour

reading the back and forth between Skin and 92 and had a blast. If you two are not lawyers, you missed your calling writing appellate briefs. 92 has the “the way it is” argument and Skin the, “The way it outta be argument.” I hope State wins and ffffs it all the f up. I freakin hate all those damned walmart t wearing ou/ut “fans” in the highest order. Case on point: My favorite radio personality here in DFW, Corby has his degree from TCU and Craig Miller graduated from UNT, but they’re OU “fans.” They go to ou games and wear ou colors. nothing would make me happier than seeing those front running prima donnas get what they have coming. Texas is just as bad. I know a dude with a degree from SWT who has season tix to ut and a longhorn sticker on his car. Where’s the freakin loyalty. Wreck Em TECH!!!!!

by Plano Jeff on Nov 28, 2008 2:24 AM CST reply actions 0 recs

LOL +1 on the loyalty and the hangers-on, Jeff. I would NEVER wear an orange shirt in place of my black and red, but you’ll have to excuse me for not having any Baylor gear in my closet (Tech didn’t have a law school in those days).

by TT_ on Nov 30, 2008 11:34 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs