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5 Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose: Oklahoma State Edition

 

 

Reason #1: Kendall Hunter Can Run

This will be the first game since the Nevada game where the Red Raiders have faced a formidable running game. Most of the teams up until this point have been predominantly passing teams, or perhaps it would be best to say that the teams prefer the pass over the run. Not Oklahoma State. Not only does OSU run for 273 yards a game, but the Cowboys are also incredibly efficient. Good for 5th in the country at a whopping 5.7 yards per carry (only trail Nevada, La. Lafayette, Oregon, and West Virginia).  The big reason for Oklahoma State's success is the legs of Kendall Hunter, who is averaging 135.56 yards a game. And just in case you're curious, Hunter's worst game was against TAMU and Baylor where he rushed for 90 and 93 yards, respectively. Those games, along with the Washington State game were Hunter's worst in terms of average per attempt for the season, however, Hunter is averaging 6.7 yards per attempt. That's just staggering.

Reason #2: Improved Oklahoma State Defense

As much as we like to discuss how much the Texas Tech defense has improved, there's no doubt that Oklahoma State can be more boastful.  Last year, OSU was 10th in the conference in total defense (8th in rushing and 12th in passing), but this year, Oklahoma State is markedly improved. OSU is 3rd (5th in rushing and 6th in passing) in the conference and 76 yards a game better in 2008 than in 2007. The numbers don't lie. Oklahoma State is significantly better on defense, and although the pressure isn't there, they are almost a full touchdown better from where they were last year in scoring defense.

Reason #3: Robinson Is More Efficient

Zac Robinson is almost a yard better than last year. Last year Robinson averaged 69 yards a game (6.7 yds/att) running the ball and 222 yards a game (8.4 yds/att) passing the ball for a 7.7 yard per play average. This year, Robinson has cut back his running (the attempts are still there, over 10 a game in 2008 and 2007) but the yards aren't. Robinson is rushing 3.7 yds/att, but becoming a more efficient passer, averaging 11.1 yds/att. Right now, Robinson is an incredible 8.6 yards per play for the season. Again, for comparison purposes, Harrell is not too far behind Robinson at 8.3 yards per play, but Robinson is almost 1 yard better than last year despite running less, a sure sign that he's got more than a handle on the passing game.

Reason #4: Stopping The Run In The Spread

I found it interesting that Oklahoma State does a better job of stopping the run against the in conference opponents that run the spread than any other offense. Oklahoma State has held Missouri and Baylor under 100 yards rushing while allowing over 100 yards for every other team. I recall watching that Oklahoma State vs. Missouri game and thought that OSU's run defense was spectacular. Of course, the Missouri game was one of the defenses' best performances of the year, limiting the Tigers to 3.56 yards a carry, but by far the best game for the Cowboys was against Baylor where they limited the Bears and freshman of the year candidate Robert Griffin to 42 yards on 31 carries for a 1.35 yard per carry average. Having not watched much Oklahoma State football, I'm guessing that their linebackers do a superb job of filling the gaps created by the wider splits in the spread offense. Texas Tech adjusted their line splits last week against Texas, essentially tightening up those splits at various times during the game. I'm guessing that we might wee more of that this week, but it certainly doesn't look promising for Texas Tech to continue running the ball when OSU has shown the ability to stop efficient running teams like Baylor (4th in the Big 12 in yds/att-4.62) and Missouri (3rd in the Big 12 in yds/att-5.21).

Reason #5: Special Teams

Rarely does special teams make an appearance in the 5 Reasons, but this week, there's no doubt that it should. Oklahoma State is deadly in the return game, namely because of Dez Bryant. Oklahoma State is averaging 19.50 yards a punt return whle Bryant is averaging 15.15 yards per return, which ranks him 4th in the nation, and he also has 2 touchdowns. Kickoff returns are a completely different thing for the Cowboys as Perrish Cox is only (I'm joking) 7th in the nation in kickoff returns, averaging 31.05 per return. Meanwhile, Texas Tech is 2nd to last in the Big 12 in punt return coverage, allowing 12.14 yards per return and 6th in kickoff returns, 22.52 per return. It's the punt returns that worry me the most considering the disparity in the return ability of Bryant and the inability to stop the return for Texas Tech (i.e., Jordan Shipley, I know, the block in the back). Bryant has the ability to absolutely break this game open with a punt return for a touchdown and that would be bad news for your Red Raiders.

Related, 5 Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose: Oklahoma State Edition.

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playing Devil's advocate...

My anti-rebuttal, if you will. The yin to yesterday’s yang.

1. Hunter can run, but he can be limited. A&M (#11) and Baylor (#8) are not very good run defenses, but they loaded the box and held Hunter to his lowest YPC of the year. Iowa State tried to do the same, they just weren’t any good at it. The common thread: Dez going bonkers for 489 yards and 9 TDs in the 3 games. Which poses an interesting question:

What schools (if any) would you think have the personnel to single-cover Dez Bryant? Texas and Missouri (and TT) or Iowa State and Baylor? Maybe it’s just me, but if you stink on defense, shouldn’t you try to take away the other teams superstar and make them nickel-and-dime you to death? Getting gashed for 7 yards a pop is never fun, but it’s better than giving up 60-yard bombs.

Anyway, I think Tech’s objective on defense should be to stop Hunter and rely on disguising coverages to limit Bryant. Surely the Raiders have better DBs than Iowa State or Baylor, and Texas couldn’t stop the run with an honest 7-man front.

2. The defense is improved, but there are still moments in the season (1st half against Texas, 4th quarter against Missouri) where I get the sinking feeling that we can’t stop anyone. Then the D pulls a turnover out of nowhere and I relax again. So as long as Tech protects the ball, they should still have success moving up and down the field.

3. The main reason Robinson is more efficient this year is because Dez Bryant >>>>> Adarius Bowman. His INT rate is exactly the same as 2007, but his yards and TDs are up because Dez is much more of a big play threat. However, Zac’s YPC is down from 6.1 to 3.7 and he has already been sacked twice as much as last year (10 to 5). His effectiveness as a passer is up, but his effectiveness as a runner has not shown on the field. He has not taken off running as much, which led to sacks against Texas. And opposing defenses seem more prepared for him to keep on the zone read this year. Tech fans will remember that he did as much damage with his legs in 2007 as with his arm. The 2007 version of Zac as a runner is something all OSU fans are waiting for, but we haven’t seen it yet.

4. Don’t forget Texas. Although they were moving the ball so well through the air the first 3 quarters that it didn’t matter. And to be honest, I think Missouri gave up on the run too early. But Tech’s spread is a different animal – much wider split and much more pass coverage responsibility for the LBs. It will be an interesting challenge for OSU if Tech makes it a point to establish the run.

5. Our return teams have been great and our punter is all-conference. But our kickoff team just allowed the kid from ISU to set an NCAA record. It helped that we kicked off 10 times, but he had 3 really long returns. Whatever it was, we need to fix it this week.

by wino1618 on Nov 6, 2008 1:27 PM CST   0 recs

interesting insight

Thanks for the post

by Tech92 on Nov 6, 2008 6:20 PM CST to parent up   0 recs

Thank you for this, and thank you OSU guy for your reply.

Peace

... I'm just sayin'

by antiswarm on Nov 6, 2008 2:11 PM CST   0 recs

quick stat!

One of OSU’s lowest productivity games, as you mentioned, was against the Aggies in which the Yds/Carry was 4.8. I can see that. So if we had similar success against the Aggie D (4.7 yds/Carry) assuming that our D is as good or better than the Aggies we may actually have a shot at at least containing the damage

by Tortilla Pirate on Nov 6, 2008 2:44 PM CST   0 recs

The big play

If you define “big play” as a single play netting a 30 yard gain or a TD from +25 yards, how many big plays has Tech surrendered this year? And, how many big plays has OSU executed? My gut tells me Tech’s defense has done remarkably well preventing the big play sans Malcolm Williams (twice).

by Jason Roberts on Nov 6, 2008 6:07 PM CST   0 recs

OSU Big Plays

Washington State – longest offensive play was 23 yards; but OSU had 68-yd and 48-yd punt returns to set up scores and a 90 yd KO return TD.

Houston – Hunter 58 yd TD, Bryant 39 yd TD, Toston 28 yd TD, Bryant 29 yd TD, Bryant 74 yd TD, Bryant 71 yd PR TD, Johnson 38-yd run.

Missouri State – Bowling 65 yd TD, Toston 56-yd run, Johnson 44-yd run, Hunter 35-yd run

Troy – Bryant 26 yd TD, Bryant 44 yd TD, Hunter 41 yd run

A&M – Bryant 29 yd TD, Bryant 78 td PR TD, Davis 45 yd catch

Missouri – Hunter 68 yd TD, Davis 40 yd TD, Davis 31 yd TD

Baylor – Bryant 37 yd TD, Bryant 52 yd catch

Texas – Hunter 31 yd catch (also 23 yd TD and 24 yd run)

Iowa St – Bryant 26 yd TD, Bryant 80 yd TD, Hunter 36 yd TD, Broadway 95 yd TD, Davis 50 yd catch

by wino1618 on Nov 7, 2008 6:21 AM CST to parent up   0 recs

Yarrggh Mateys issue cutlasses and grappling hooks - the Tech O and D line have a full tank of gas..

This game will hinge on the execution of o-line blocks and the d-line shedding of blocks /creating of a pile/multiple piles at the point of attack. We may see a breakout game for the Tech LB’s – why ? no blockers are reaching them all game long. Much has been made of the amount of gas in the tank for the Raiders. My thinking says this is a factor of emotional and physical energy. It’s available and untapped. I stood in Section 10 of the Jones on 01Nov and at the end of the game the team still had the fire in the belly. Conditioning and more conditioning – it’s the late season factor and its right where it needs to be. Tech can and will dominate the line of scrimmage. The term that leaps to mind is manhandle. I give credit to the OSU O- line they are a good unit. But expect the containment style rush to continue to be ferocious. It’s a fast paced Tech attack- it’s a wearing style of assault. The Texas O line is bit better(in my uninformed opinion – this OSU O-line is in for test. (And yeah I know they have at least 2 x all Big 12 offensive Linemen) On offense a Tech beating is in the offing for the OSU D-line(note the Tortilla Retort posting(s)) I expect them – the Cowboys down linemen to play well initially and be slowly ground down. One factor not really explored is the blast block effect supporting the rushing of Woods and Batch. In a word wearing. I DO not expect the OSU offnese to hold the ball for extended periods of time. Reversing the field the OSU running backs will have to block our defensive ends and do it well all day – 60 minutes – no exceptions otherwise we should expect to see 3-5 sacks by Tech before games end. Yarrggh Mateys – Issue Cutlasses’ and Grappling hooks the OSU galleon is in range!

by centexraider on Nov 6, 2008 7:47 PM CST   0 recs

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