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Previewing Texas Tech vs. Ole Miss:  Receivers

RECEIVER

Player Ht/Wt Class Rec Att Rec Yds Rec Avg Rec TD
Michael Crabtree 6'3"/214 So. 93 1,135 12.20 18
Detron Lewis 6'0"/209 So. 71 869 12.24 3
Eric Morris 5'8"/177 Sr. 64 682 10.66 8
Tramain Swindall 6'3"/175 Fr. 42 528 12.57 2
Lyle Leong 6'1"/165 So. 17 199 11.71 3
Adam James 6'3"/217 So. 15 159 10.60 1
Mike Wallace 6'0"/180 Sr. 35 704 20.11 6
Shay Hodge 6'1"/207 Jr. 42 676 16.10 8
Dexter McCluster 5'8"/165 Jr. 38 542 14.26 1
Lionel Breaux 6'1"/191 So. 12 178 14.83 0

Texas Tech

Were you expecting some other
picture of Mr. Crabtree?

I'd like to tell you that this is somewhat close, but it's not. As dominant as Graham Harrell is to Snead statistically, so are the Red Raider receivers to the Rebel receivers. It's about sheer numbers and having one of the most talented receivers in NCAA history.

Starting at the top, there's no doubt that Michael Crabtree continued to improve on his successful freshman season. There were no break-out games like in 2007, but in 2008 it was all about the touchdowns. In 2007, Crabtree had 17 touchdowns in his first 6 games and only 5 touchdowns in his last 7 games. Crabtree was shut out of the endzone against OU and obviously against Baylor due to his injury, but up until those two games, Crabree was a regular touchdown machine. Six touchdowns against Kansas, Texas and Oklahoma State. It should also be noted that Crabtree toughened up this year and the days of trying to jam Crabtree at the line of scrimmage to throw him off of his route are behind him. Play too close and he'll beat you deep, play to far back and he'll catch the ball and run over you.

There's still some question as to whether or not Crabtree is going to play due to his ankle injury, but if he could have played the week after the Baylor game in a Big 12 Championship Game, then I like my chances.

Detron Lewis emerged as a legitimate threat going over the middle and taking over Danny Amendola's old position. Not quite the 100 catch season that Amendola had, but there's no question that if Crabtree leaves, Lewis should be the new star of this offense. Emo continues to simply rack up the yards and score touchdowns. It's that easy if you're 5'8" (stretching it and see McCluster below). Some serious credit needs to go to Britton for becoming a more consistent catcher. There's no doubt that Britton always had the speed, but it's doing something with those passes (i.e. catching them) when they're thrown your way and Britton has done that. Swindall has quietly, or at least to me, produced an excellent season, and despite the fact that this is his first year, he's been pretty good at making tough catches and holding onto the ball.

Philosophically, Graham Harrell did a better job of spreading the ball to various receivers and although it meant that Michael Crabtree didn't match his 2007 numbers, the offense was more effective. In 2007, the top 5 receivers for Texas Tech caught the following percentage of passes (i.e. the average of the total receptions of the top 5 receivers and their percentage of catches of that total):

2007 % 2008 % Delta
Crabtree 33.84% Crabtree 31.00% -2.84
Amendola 27.53% D. Lewis 23.67% -3.86
E. Morris 18.94% E. Morris 21.33% +2.39
E. Britton 12.12% T. Swindall 14.00% +1.88
G. Walker 7.58% E. Britton 10.00% +2.42

The thing that stands out to me is that the bottom three of those top 5 receivers received a bigger share of the football, which means that Harrell did a better job of spreading the wealth.

Mississippi

Rebel Mike Wallace, not Mike Wallace

I'm actually very impressed with Ole Miss' receiving corp and it doesn't take someone with a ton of smarts to realize that what the Rebels miss in number of receptions, they make up in average yards per catch. All four of Ole Miss's top receivers are averaging more than 14 yards a catch and are really getting behind secondaries or getting the ball down the field, which is something that I noted about Snead's yards/attempt in the Quarterbacks Preview.

Shay Hodges is the receptions leader and is more than likely the possession-type receiver at a measley 16 yards a reception. Hodges has good size and judging by his numbers, eight touchdowns, he's a threat to score. In fact, he scored at least 1 touchdown 8 times this season (i.e., he only had 1 game with multiple touchdowns, against Memphis) and is good for a TD a game.

Mike Wallace is the senior of the group and he is by far and away, the best deep threat for the Rebels. At the beginning of the year, he was quite inconsistent, but as the year's progressed, he's been very effective, averaging over 81 yards a game in the month of November.

We breifly talked about Dexter McCluster during the Running Backs Preview is that Nutt wants to get McCluster the ball all over the field. McCluster is very hit-or-miss in the passing game. He's caught 132 yards on 7 catches against Vandy and against Mississippi State, he had 1 catch for 7 yards. As McCluster's rushing attempts have increased, so his receptions per game has decreased. Makes sense, there's just so many opportunities to pass around.

As inconsistent McCluster is, Lionel Breaux is even more inconsistent. I think it's safe to say that Breaux is not much of a target for Snead and has only caught passes in 5 games this year, although he did catch 1 pass for 39 yards against LSU. Don't look for Breaux to do much at the Cotton Bowl.

Conclusion:

Much like the quarterback position, this matchup was pretty easy. One team has a two-time Biletnikoff winner and the other team does not.

Previous Matchups

Quarterbacks :: Running Backs ::  Receiver :: Offensive Line :: Defensive Line :: Linebackers :: Secondary :: Special Teams :: Coaching

 

Matchup

Advantage

Quarterback

Running Back

Receiver

Poll
Who do you think wins this matchup of receivers?
Texas Tech
213 votes
Mississippi
43 votes

256 votes | Poll has closed

0 recs  |  Comment 16 comments |

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Comments

Display:

Give me a break!!!!

Crabtree gives you the receiver advantage, but you do not have a huge advantage in running backs or quarterback. Tech plays in the no defense Big 12. Ole Miss plays in the big defense SEC. Any team with a half way decent offense puts up huge numbers in the soft Big 12.

Swap quarterback and running backs and Texas Tech doesn’t miss a beat while Ole Miss wouldn’t be nearly as good.

The two games to watch are Oklahoma/Florida and Texas Tech/Ole Miss. There is a reason Oklahoma has lost four out of their last five bowl games.

Ole Miss has the better defensive and offensive lines. Games are won in the trenches. Our defense is better than Oklahoma’s. We won’t beat you as bad as Oklahoma, but we will beat you. Rebelistic.

by Rebelistic on Dec 15, 2008 1:31 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

...said the SEC fan.

This argument has been making the rounds all season:
“Big Defense SEC” or “No Offense SEC”?
“No Defense Big 12” or “Big Offense Big 12”?
As with most things, the correct answer is usually somewhere in the middle.

Easy, guy. We know you love the SEC. But this analysis is hardly “a joke” or “ridiculous” as you stated in another comment. It’s based on numbers, and while the stats don’t tell the whole story, they do help shine some light on our opponent who very few of us – if any – have been able to see play.

As for Ole Miss’s bowl record against the Big 12 – that’s somewhat irrelevant, seeing as how the most recent game was in 2004 against a 9-4 OSU team. Needless to say, some things have changed since then. The Rebels’ last game against Texas Tech was prior to Mike Leach’s arrival.

I agree that Ole Miss is underrated and just a few plays away from a ten-win season, but there are just some things that you state as fact that you have no proof of. How do you know Ole Miss has better D- and O-lines? How do you know your defense is better than Oklahoma’s?

We are glad you decided to stop by, and we welcome some conversation and information about the Rebels. But, this isn’t your usual message board.

by djollie111 on Dec 15, 2008 3:00 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

*last bowl game*

against TT was before Leach. The last game against Texas Tech was that Symons v. Manning shootout in Oxford, and this is how that ended.

by djollie111 on Dec 15, 2008 3:20 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

If your defense and offense is better than Oklahoma’s then why wouldn’t you expect to beat us by more than they did?

by willthetechfan on Dec 15, 2008 3:16 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

(meant defensive and offensive lines)

by willthetechfan on Dec 15, 2008 3:17 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

there's also a reason

Tech has won five of their last six bowl games…you guys are just glad to be there…we’re actually disappointed we’re there. Enjoy Dallas.

by Tech92 on Dec 15, 2008 4:08 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Mr. Rebelistic

This is a forum for serious football fans who appreciate and respect the stat laden work our site editor and contributors do for us at no cost. You won’t find more comprehensive analysis regarding OUR two teams’ matchups anywhere. When I read the analysis, I find it to be quite respectful and complimentary of Mississippi’s strengths. The author has a right to give a conclusion based on the data presented. So feel free to put some research into your team’s numbers and come back with an argument for your opinions, which are supported by facts. Please see the scout and rivals forums for empty assertions and other non-game topics.

by Plano Jeff on Dec 15, 2008 7:55 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Hopefully you understand

that I do put quite a bit of time into these preview and although it appears that I’ve made the decision based on Mr. Crabtree, I think I’d be completely legitimate in saying that Texas Tech does have the advantage because of his performance on the field.

As far as running backs, there’s no doubt, the SEC is at an offensive disadvantage compared to the Big 12, but we haven’t even gotten to the defense yet.

I prefaced the beginning of these previews by stating that I haven’t watched lick of Ole Miss football, so statistics is all I’ve got and I’m trying to be as unbiased as possible. I know that I’m a fan of Texas Tech, so I’m naturally biased, but I’m really trying to be objective.

The Rebels day will come soon enough. Trust me.

Thanks for coming by DTN, bring some stats and let’s talk some football.

Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation

by Seth C on Dec 15, 2008 8:40 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

Rebelistic is obviously not the same as Realistic

But keep thinking that way. And get the players to think that way, too. Snead = Harrell? Excuse me while I double over in laughter.

by TT_ on Dec 15, 2008 2:32 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Rebelistic has a point on Snead but the SEC defense dominance card has been

played out a little too much.

Snead was in pretty close competition to McCoy before failing to win the job so I wouldn’t say he’s nothing close in comparability to Harrell.

As far as the SEC dominating Big XII offenses, remember the last time an SEC team coached by Nutt played a Big XII team? That’s right last year’s cotton bowl- Mizzu over the Razorbacks.

OU has proven to be a huge disappointment finishing the past several years but that’s what happens when you have starters get in trouble, fail in the classroom, or injuries during that too long of a period before the next game of 4-6 weeks. The championship game should be a good match up but I do think the Gators will prevail because of their special teams and not their defense.

Obviously Ole Miss will put up a good fight but in the end I don’t see them pulling it off. Tech has too many options on offense to be stopped especially when you’re playing a team from another division that doesn’t see that type of spread offense year end and year out…..(i.e. Mizzu vs Razorbacks). The wild rebel will keep it close IF Sneed gets on a roll with his passing game.

I don’t think it will be a blow out.

by ashton99 on Dec 15, 2008 3:14 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I wasn't sure if you were commenting to me or to our Ole Miss friend

but I think the difference between Harrell and Snead might be pretty big. Snead completes only 55% of his passes and Harrell completes over 70% of his passes. I know that we’re talking about two different offenses here, but 55% is pretty bad, although Snead does a good job of getting vertical.

Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation

by Seth C on Dec 15, 2008 8:47 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

The simple truth

of this game is this…if Tech plays their best game, and Ole Miss plays their best game this one will be a dud. Tech will roll quite easily. Even if we’re off a little I don’t see this being a great game. Probably why I can’t even muster up the slightest bit of animosity towards Ole Miss…that, and the four losses they bring to the table with that “stout” defense.

But wait, the Rebels protest, our losses were by a combined N points! Could care less. A loss is a loss. Their signature win is as fluky as our signature loss. And we have three other Top 25 skins on the wall to go with it. C’mon, they lost to Wake Forest (average at best); Vandy, (no good); South Carolina (average); Bama (very good).

I frankly frankly don’t see this game as being competitive beyond halftime.

by Tech92 on Dec 15, 2008 4:16 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

It's why we play the game.

The AP apparently agrees about Ole Miss’s lines. They gave both the offensive and defensive line a 1st team all-American pic. Players don’t make all-American if they aren’t getting support from their team mates. We will most likely have two first round draft picks from the defensive line if Hardy comes out early.

There is a lot of difference from the early season Ole Miss team and the late season team. New head coach, new running backs, new quarterback. 135 – 13 in the last three games with only a sole touch down to LSU speaks volumes are where the Rebels are at no compared to earlier in the season.

You are right, if we can’t put pressure on you it will be a long day for the Rebs.

by Rebelistic on Dec 17, 2008 1:55 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

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