Texas Tech Receivers and Overall Production
Being a little bit bored on Friday night I thought I'd take a look at how the top 4 receivers performed for the past 4 years and how their seasons were a part of the total passing yards for the year.
I didn't have any clues as to how this would play out, so with that being said, let's dive into those numbers. Hat tip to College Football Stats for all the statistics.
First Receiver
| Year | Player | Rec. | Yards | TD | %Rec | %Yards | %TD |
| 2007 | Michael Crabtree | 134 | 1,962 | 22 | 25% | 32% | 43% |
| 2006 | Joel Filani | 91 | 1,300 | 13 | 21% | 27% | 33% |
| 2005 | Joel Filani | 65 | 1,048 | 8 | 17% | 22% | 24% |
| 2004 | Jarrett Hicks | 76 | 1,177 | 13 | 18% | 25% | 38% |
Crabtree. Just amazing, especially those touchdown percentages. I remember that 2004 season and kept thinking that Hicks was having an unbelievable season and then . . . he never lived up to those expectations. It really puts Mr. Crabtree's year into perspective for me.
It's safe to say that the #1 receiver for the Red Raiders can expect 20% of the receptions, especially under Harrell's guidance. Interesting that in 2005 and 2004 those numbers were down slightly as Hodges and Cumbie both involved the third receiver a little bit more.
Also interesting to note that at the very least 24% of the passing touchdown production comes from the first receiver and each of these guys have a little bit of size to go and get the ball, especially in and around the endzone.
Second Receiver
| Year | Player | Rec. | Yards | TD | %Rec | %Yards | %TD |
| 2007 | Danny Amendola | 109 | 1,245 | 6 | 20% | 20% | 12% |
| 2006 | Robert Johnson | 89 | 871 | 11 | 20% | 18% | 28% |
| 2005 | Robert Johnson | 67 | 951 | 4 | 17% | 20% | 12% |
| 2004 | Trey Haverty | 77 | 1,019 | 6 | 18% | 21% | 18% |
Pretty consistent and the biggest fluctuation comes from Johnson's touchdown totals in 2006, a year after being in the system. This exercise also taught me that Haverty's year in 2004 was pretty special, again in touchdown production, but keep in mind that his touchdown total is the same as Amendola's in 2007, yet Amendola's touchdowns only accounts for 12% of the passing touchdown totals whereas Haverty's accounted for 18%. Again, a testament to Crabtree's ability to get into the endzone.
The second receiver can also expect about 20% of the receptions as well as 20% of the yards. It will be interesting to see if this statistic remains consistent this year, where Detron Lewis is stepping into Amendola's spot, but Morris might be considered the second best receiver on the team. I'm going to hedge my bets that Lewis does take over that second spot, but receivers tend to trend upward in production the longer they are in the system.
Third Receiver
| Year | Player | Rec. | Yards | TD | %Rec | %Yards | %TD |
| 2007 | Eric Morris | 75 | 767 | 9 | 14% | 13% | 18% |
| 2006 | Danny Amendola | 48 | 487 | 5 | 11% | 10% | 13% |
| 2005 | Jarrett Hicks | 65 | 850 | 10 | 17% | 18% | 29% |
| 2004 | Neihemiah Glover | 62 | 660 | 1 | 15% | 14% | 3% |
This might be the one spot that has the most variation. Morris' 75 to Amendola's 48, a 27 reception difference, is fairly significant and now that I have a chance to put Amedola, Hicks, Glover and Morris' seasons together, I still scratch my head to try and figure out why Amendola struggled so much in 2006. Granted, over 40% of the passes were to Filani and Johnson, but the same could be said for Amendola and Crabtree last year, but Morris seemed to perform pretty well, especially in the touchdown department, but more than that Morris out-performed his counterparts from the previous three years except for Hicks.
Fourth Receiver
| Year | Player | Rec. | Yards | TD | %Rec | %Yards | %TD |
| 2007 | Edward Britton | 48 | 631 | 4 | 9% | 10% | 8% |
| 2006 | Eric Morris | 25 | 347 | 1 | 6% | 7% | 3% |
| 2005 | Danny Amendola | 34 | 395 | 3 | 9% | 8% | 9% |
| 2004 | Cody Fuller | 43 | 505 | 0 | 10% | 11% | 0% |
Again, the norm seems to be 9% or 10% of the passes and about the same percentage of yards. The 2006 year was the down year for Morris in 2006 as well as Amendola in 2005 and I get the feeling that perhaps after 2006 Harrell recognized that perhaps he should involve all four receivers in order to have better results, corrected that problem and started spreading to his receivers as in previous year. Leach has always said that he needs all four receivers to be productive in order for the offense to really hum and production alone (over 5,700 yards in 2007 to 4,555 in 2006) says that Harrell did a much better job of getting receivers the ball, especially if you look at Britton's 2007 season in comparison with the fourth receiver the previous three years.
Running Back
| Year | Player | Rec. | Yards | TD | %Rec | %Yards | %TD |
| 2007 | Aaron Crawford (6th) | 38 | 246 | 2 | 7% | 4% | 4% |
| 2006 | Shannon Woods (3rd) | 75 | 572 | 2 | 17% | 12% | 5% |
| 2005 | Taurean Henderson (4th) | 67 | 528 | 5 | 17% | 11% | 15% |
| 2004 | Taurean Henderson (6th) | 60 | 286 | 2 | 14% | 6% | 6% |
The number in parentheses is where each receiver ranked overall and it should also be noted that Crawford's numbers were in only 8 games. If anything, it speaks to the fact that Crawford and the four receivers referenced above were the only guys who caught significant passes from Harrell in 2007. The receptions and yardage in 2006 through 2004 seemed to be much more the norm and had Crawford played in 12 games, he would have had better numbers that Henderson's 2004 season, but nothing quite like Henderson's 2005 and Woods' 2006 seasons.
TOTALS
| Year | Rec. | Yards | TD | %Rec | %Yards | %TD |
| 2007 | 366.00 | 4,605.00 | 41 | 67% | 75% | 80% |
| 2006 | 253.00 | 3,005.00 | 30 | 58% | 63% | 77% |
| 2005 | 231.00 | 3,244.00 | 25 | 59% | 70% | 74% |
| 2004 | 258.00 | 3,361.00 | 20 | 61% | 70% | 59% |
This is perhaps the most interesting of all statistics. Harrell learned to lean on his top 4 receivers moreso in 2007 than in 2006 and did so with much greater success. We all know that Mr. Crabtree has quite a bit to do with the numbers, but increasing his reliance on the top 4 receivers 9% from the previous year in receptions is a significant jump. Especially when you consider that about 60% is the normal rate. I'm beginning to wonder if Woods' lackluster effort, if that's what was holding him back, made Harrell more determined not to involve Woods and instead trust the guys who were wanting to play.
I hope you've enjoyed this exercise and feel free to post any comments, criticisms or critiques.
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i’m interested in seeing all rb’s combined for each of those years. That may be more telling on the passing game.
but I like the idea that your top 4 are going to be your most talented receivers and it’s a rare year when your #5 and #6 are true threats (maybe just threats in training). We are 6 deep this year with walker and leong worth playing time. It’ll be interesting to see how that effects things.
by kayakyakr on Aug 4, 2008 12:01 PM CDT 0 recs
By Position
I’d like to see the same analysis but by position instead of statistical finish. I think it will show that the receiver position is not evenly spread. I also think the average yard of the catch (not including the yards after the catch) varies as well by position.
by FOR Raider on Aug 4, 2008 2:49 PM CDT 0 recs
My memory
is never any good to remember receiver positions, but if someone helps me I’ll put it together.
Go Raiders . . .
by Seth C on
Aug 5, 2008 5:22 AM CDT
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0 recs
Wow
When your third WR has 75 catches and 9 TDs…that’s the number one guy’s output on 90% of the D-I teams. We throw a lot : )
by Tech92 on Aug 4, 2008 8:44 PM CDT 0 recs
So what does it mean?
I have to confess that part of my job involves analyzing statistics, so I am always a bit skeptical of the numbers. Here are some of the things that crossed my mind as I thought about the numbers:
The number that stuck out to me was the Crabtree’s TDs. But when I looked at the season, he had 17 in the first 6 games and only 5 in the last 7. Over 1000 yds in the first 6 and 888 yds in the last 7. I think part of this descrepancy is in part due to the schedule, but may be due to the fact that teams were keyed into Crabtree over the last half of the season (though I also recall Leach dishing out a little humility to him over about a 3 game stretch). I wonder if this may be a little more indicative of what his numbers will be this year?
I also tried to figure out a way to calculate efficiency for a receiver (I have never seen this sort of stat) to compare Crabtree to other receivers with fewer opportunities. I tried a few things, but I couldn’t find a stat for drops. The best I could come up with was Yds/Catch x TDs/Catch, though I think it favors receivers with fewer catches. Removing receivers with less than the average (61) receptions/game, here are the top 10…
NAME…..................REC….......YDS….......Yds/Catch….......TD….......TDs/Catch….......Rating
Steve Johnson,......61…........1052…...........17.2…..............13…...........0.213….............3.666
Kentucky
Marcus Barnett,......62….........862…............13.9…..............13…...........0.210….............2.915
Cincy
Trae Johnson,........70…........1088…...........15.5…..............13…...........0.186….............2.879
Tulsa
James Hardy,.........79…........1125…...........14.2…..............16…...........0.203….............2.876
Indiana
Jeff Moturi,...............65…..........891…...........13.7…...............13…..........0.200….............2.740
UTEP
Mario….....................72….........1174…..........16.3…...............12…..........0.167…..............2.717
Manningham,
Michigan
Kenny Britt,..............62….........1232…..........19.9…................8…...........0.129…..............2.568
Rutgers
Darius Hill,..............65…...........926…...........14.2…..............11…..........0.169…..............2.403
Ball St
Michael Crabtree,...134….......1962…..........14.6…..............22…..........0.164…..............2.397
Texas Tech
Cortez Gent,.............64….........1082…..........16.9…...............9…............0.141…..............2.377
FAU
Crabtree is still in the top 10, though not as high as I would have thought. Perhaps this gives credence to the “product of the system” argument. Or it could just be that my made-up rating system is flawed.
The other thing that stuck out was the numbers across the board in 2007 vs. 2006. Take a look at Harrell’s stats. Perhaps part of the increase was due to the running back situation, but the increase in efficiency is interesting. I have to think that it is in part due to having Crabtree as the go-to receiver.
..........................2007…..............2006…...............% Chg
Att…................... 713….................617…................15.6%
Comp…............ 512….................412…................ 24.3%
Pct…..................71.8…................66.8…................7.5%
Yards….............5705…...............4555…..............25.2%
Yards/Att…........8…......................7.4….................8.1%
Int…................... 14…...................11…...................27.3%
TD…...................48….................. 38…...................26.3%
Rating…............157.31…...........145.54….......... 8.1%
Att/G…............... 54.8…............... 47.5…................15.4%
Yards/G….........438.8…............. 350.4…............. 25.2%
I’m not sure how Harrell can improve on these numbers, except in INT’s. 72% completion rate is amazing. He threw the ball 96 more times in ‘07 vs. ‘06…and completed all of them…plus 4 more.
Even if teams are able to contain Crabtree more as they did over the last half of the season, a 1,700 yard season with a dozen TD’s is pretty darn good. The stats for the other receivers that you pointed out show that there are plenty of targets for Harrell to choose from, so I don’t think putting up points will be a problem. Unfortunately for Crabtree, unless he breaks Jerry Rice’s record, I think many will consider this season a disappointment.
by NM99 on Aug 5, 2008 12:52 PM CDT 1 recs
Agree with
What NM say’s about a “disappointment.” It will be very difficult, even with Crab’s ability, to match last season. He was a freshman who had never caught a pass in college when he started the first game. Nobody thought twice about him…not to mention the competition was weak. But still, that’s a ton of production even against air, so we can’t take too much away his stats.
I do worry about national perception if he “only” grabs 100 for 1300 yards and, say, 15 TDs. Sure, a big drop off from ‘07, but still better than almost any other receiver will have. The key thing for him is he has many of the measurables that the scouts pant over. Size, speed, hands, balance, strength. He will have a great 2008, but will it be enough to put him in the Top 15 draft picks? I think so, when you take what will likely be a stellar body of work, plus his measurables.
The thing that could potentially scare a few scouts is the perception he has in some circles for being a bit arrogant and difficult in the locker room, deserved or not. But unless he has a TO like blow-up this year, it shouldn’t be a major factor.
by Tech92 on Aug 5, 2008 2:57 PM CDT 0 recs












