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5 Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose: The Big 12 South Edition

 

5 Reasons Why Texas Tech Will Win and 5 Reasons Why Texas Tech Will Lose will be a weekly post, but this week, because of the bye, we focus on why DTN thinks Texas Tech will win and lose the Big 12 South. Comments, criticisms and thoughts appreciated.

Reason #1: The Bad Loss

We've talked about the bad loss before on DTN and every year, there seems to be a loss to a bad team that makes Red Raider fans want to pull out their hair. We're all hoping that things have changed and this year will be different, but if history tells us anything, it's that this team will be due for a bad loss, and it will be when it's least expected (please don't let it be Texas A&M) and it will be devastating.

Reason #2: Total Defense Isn't Up To Par

The yards bother me. Despite being more stingy the defense is still 62nd in the nation and 8th in the conference in the Big 12. Texas Tech has played some pretty good offensive teams thus far, but they've all been relatively weak teams generally. The offenses in the Big 12 will be a big step up in talent and I'm not sold that the Texas Tech defense will be able to stop opposing offenses. Perhaps the number that gives me the greatest concern is the pass defense, which is giving 246 yards a game, which is 95th in the nation and 9th in the Big 12.

Reason #3: Unhealthy Offensive Line

One of the biggest reasons for Texas Tech's success last year was that the team fielded one of the best offensive lines in the country, especially in terms of keeping Harrell upright through a game. Rylan Reed is still recovering from an ankle injury in the Gator Bowl and Louis Vasquez still isn't quite himself, sitting out the UMass game. That's your entire left side and the most important in protecting Harrell. Opposing defenses only managed 15 sacks all of last year. When Stephen Hamby has moved over to guard with Shawn Byrnes replacing him at center, the offense has struggled a bit to protect Harrell. Granted, this year the offense has only given up 1 sack in 4 games, but the relative strength of those teams is relatively weak. Texas Tech needs Reed and Vasquez to be at 100% in order for this team to have a chance at the Big 12 South title.

Reason #4: Harrell Is Off

Graham Harrell just hasn't been himself. There have been numerous instances where Harrell has tried to force the ball deep, throwing up passes to receivers that just weren't there. Harrell's been prone to having a bad game and so far it hasn't happened, but Harrell's inconsistencies are troubling. I think this is a minor point, being one that the national media may not see, but it's one that Texas Tech fans will certainly can see that he just hasn't been playing up to his 2007 standards. It's been nice to see Harrell defer to his running backs, but in order for the Texas Tech offense to hum like we're accustomed to seeing, Harrell needs to be better. I'm confident that any issues that he's had will be remedied, but for now, I'm a little worried.

Reason #5: Carona-Extra Point

Saying that freshman kicker Donnie Carona has struggled would be an understatement. So much so that Mike Leach asked a student who kicked a field goal during the UMass game to try out for the team. Carona is only 1-5 kicking field goals, the longest being 35 yards, and has had 2 of those field goals blocked. Not to mention, Carona has already missed 2 Carona-extra points. So far, this hasn't been a huge problem, but at some point during the season a game will be on the line and Leach is either going to allow Carona to kick or he's going to go for it, putting the defense in a precarious situation should he the 4th down attempt fail. Carona has got to get better, but the problem is that there may not be a better alternative.

Hat-Tip to the great South Carolina blog, Garnet and Black Attack for the idea.

0 recs  |  Comment 8 comments |

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Harrell

"Harrell’s been prone to having a bad game and so far it hasn’t happened, but Harrell’s inconsistencies are troubling. " I would have to say the Nevada came should be counted as a bad game. He played like crap.

Being an accountant and famous don't go together. If you're a famous accountant, you probably did something wrong.

by Boarder on Sep 25, 2008 3:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Carona

Luckily, the Matt Williams coach Leach meeting on Tuesday went well. He’s now on the team and practicing. That should fix one of the potential downfalls this season. Once Harrell remembers how to release the ball without standing there patting the ball 20 times he should regain his former form.

by GiantRaider on Sep 25, 2008 3:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Re: Harrell

As far as I’m concerned, Harrell and the receivers connection has been less than par up to this point. The fact that they have had an average (below average) passing attached and shown signs of a running game is exactly what we need. They will need a running game regardless of how good Harrell is against OU and UT. The OU game last year was pure evidence of that. Home field advantage was our win….OU would have been toast if they had a running game to kill the clock like they showed against Nevada this year. Of course that was Nevada.

The defense is giving up being yards but that’s not a surprise considering the conservative line up call by McNeil. If he brings pressure coupled with the D backs continuation of geling as a unit I think we’ll be pleasently surprised this year. Especially the D line against the run which has killed us every year. I’ve never seen a Tech defense under Leach like McNeil showed in the 3rd quarter of the Nevada game. When he brought pressure the offense had no chance and it was a sight to see. Go Tech!

by ashton99 on Sep 25, 2008 4:24 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

field goals

Unfortunately, I think the kicking game will be our downfall to becoming a BCS bowl team this year.

The best part of college football is you never know!

by ashton99 on Sep 25, 2008 4:28 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agreed, but...

I think there is viturally no chance of Tech getting to the BCS this year no matter what defense or kicker we trot out there. There can only be two teams from one conf in the BCS and unless we win the south we are probably Cotton bound – which ain’t bad. Otherwise I see either OU/Texas and Mizzou getting a BCS bid if things continue on the path they are on. All things being equal, we wouldn’t be picked over any of those three schools. We don’t bring near enough fans or ratings to the bowl games outside of Texas.

by Tech92 on Sep 25, 2008 8:51 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Reason # 2 debunked.. the Raiders are up to par.. and its going to be ugly..

Folks the Raiders need a dominating series of defensive performances in this 4 game stretch of the 08 campaign. Here’s what I am talking about.
Kansas state: 4 sacks on Josh "I’m the best QB.. " Freeman – 7 hurries and 3 picks or forced fumbles. Punt returns average 15 plus yards per. And no defensive penalties. 3 x Kansas penetrations of the red zone equaling 1 TD and 2 field goals.

Nebraska 5 x first downs (or fewer)in the first half 6 first downs allowed in the second half. 2 penetrations into the red zone 2 field goals or 1 TD and a blocked FG. Less than 150 yards rushing allowed less than 200 yard passing allowed. Hurry Ganz 15 times. Sack him 3 times. Punt returns 1 blocked and we average 15 plus a return. 2 sacks or 2 forced fumbles on special teams getting us the short field. 6 pas break ups all in their end of the field. 1 x penalty by the defense.

Texas A & M 4 x picks off of J. Johnson, 3 sacks and 8 tackles for a loss. Return 2 x KO’s for 50 plus yards. Only allow 6 first half and 4 second half first downs. Hold A& M to less than 175 yards on the ground and 200 (or less) in the air. No defensive penalties for first downs. Recover a fumble in their end of the field.

At Kansas hurry T. Reesing 12 times, sack him 4 times with 10 pass break ups and or 2 Interceptions and 1 blocked FG. Return the punts an average of 15 plus yards. 10 tackles for a loss Allow less than 100 yards on ground with 7 (or less) first half and 6 second half first downs. 3 TDs allowed – 1 at the end of game. 3 penalties or less by the defense but they all stop a scoring attempt. Force 1.5 to 2.0 fumbles recover at least 1.

Note you can redo my math by trading sacks /tipped balls or interceptions- as long as we get the total numbers of great defensive plays. Bottom line if the Raider defense can make our opponents face multiple 3rd and long situations – I feel we can dominate this 4 game stretch. My going in position is the defensive line is the best thing we have. Allowing Coach McNeill to play from 2 scores up ( or down hill) vastly increases our chances of negating a home field advantage or an up and comer playing above themselves. Disrupt, disrupt and force the turnover. Note punt returns(a transition game) are a strength of this team. I will take them (punts) anyway we can get them.

by centexraider on Sep 25, 2008 7:44 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Harrell

Graham had his WORST game of his career against Nevada from a statistical stand-point….he usually has two really bad games a year….we hope that was one of them, and the defense can bow up and win the other one for us.

by jdubmed on Sep 26, 2008 2:50 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Kicking Game

I think this is a part of the team that will get better over time. We have a true Freshman who is playing at a level and is shell shocked right now. Wether or not Williams steps up and becomes the starting kicker remains to be seen. All in all, it will improve.

I see the kicking game as a whole improve and will will see a whole new side of this part of the game starting with Kansas State.

Just remember one thing! Texas Tech is the only team to beat the 12th man recover squad! Lets do it again!!! Because the 12th man is meaningless against our Raiders who have beaten it.

Based on what I have seen from A&M, they are ripe for another to bust off a kick return. Let make them loose their volunteer group like we did in the past.

As for the rest of the team all things hinge on the defense. Stopping the Run has to be main priority! I can live with 270 yards of passing. I can not live with more than 130 rushing!

Tech season will live or die with how well our boys defend the rush. Stop the rush and you will see a team fall. Its why Leach has failed in the past!

We have to have an agressive front 4 who will stuff the run and force teams to be pass only. Only then will we have a BCS team. Offensively, Harrell has to stop trying to throw a TD every time he makes a pass. Sometimes you only get a 7 yard play and that’s it.

That is the difference this year verses last year. Harrell is trying to throw the TD every down rather than just passing to the play which the D gives him. Once Harrell stops trying to pass the TD every down will his numbers increase and we will see the return of last years type of numbers.

by Pablo M on Sep 27, 2008 5:48 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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