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Recruiting On The High Seas: Reflecting on Progress

The question as to whether or not Captain Mike Leach has significant improved the talent level at Texas Tech has been posed, but I'm not sure that I've sufficiently taken a look at the numbers to make sure what I thought was happening, that Leach and his staff was improving the talent, or if the program was treading water.  My theory has typically been that Leach is slowly but surely improving the program, no major leaps forward, but no real steps back either.  After crunching the numbers (this is the one thing that I'm concerned about . . . whether or not I've accurately added, multiplied and divided correctly) I think that theory is still true.

Offense

Year # 5* 4* 3* 2* Avg Rating
2009 8 0 3 5 0 3.375
2008 8 0 1 5 2 2.875
2007 15 0 1 11 4 3.000
2006 15 0 2 9 4 2.866

2009

We won't get too wrapped up in recruiting until signing day, but the thing that jumped out at me, is that right now, Texas Tech has 0 2-star athletes. Again, I'm crossing fingers and holding my breath, for an entire month, but I consider that to be a pretty significant improvement. Not to mention, there's three 4-star players committed right now.

2008

This was a relatively small class and there are two 2-star players in this group, in part because Carona was a 2-star and you never expect your kicker to be a real highly rated player and the second 2-star player is Austin Zouzalik and was offered a scholarship late after a player decommitted (I think). Again, this was a very small class because there were few players that graduated, but I can see the improvement. Harrison Jeffers was the lone 4-star recruit.

2007

There were four 2-star recruits on the offensive side of the ball and none of them have contributed yet, although I think that it's safe to say that there was an expectation that these guys were going to sit for a while and develop (Stefan Loucks, Omar Castillo, Dominique Delpheche and Justin Keown). Lonnie Edwards was the lone 4-star recruit in this class and he should be a star next year along the line. This class was also very receiver heavy (Jacoby Franks, Rashad Hawk, Tramain Swindall and Detron Lewis). That's a pretty impressive group of athletes for Potts to throw at next year. There were a couple of position changes here as running back Jared Flannel switched to the defensive side of the ball and Matt Moore gained an offensive lineman in David Neill, formerly a DE.

2006

Much like the defense, one of the two 4-star recruits was Ofa Mohetau and he never quite panned out like we thought. Lots of players here that never actually stuck around and by my count, there's 6 players of 15 that didn't work out, not including Steven Harris who may, or may not be back on the team in 2009, but is on the defensive side of the ball now. Oh yeah, a Michael Crabtree was an athlete in this class and the other 4-star recruit.

Parting Thoughts

It seems to me that there's a high-risk and high-reward to previous classes and it's pretty amazing to see how the 2-star player has almost entirely been eliminated. That's progress. It's slow and steady progress, but it's progress nonetheless. Not to mention, the three 4-star players is what truly pushes this class over the top.  Nevertheless, Leach has been pretty consistent on the offense.

Defense

Year # 5* 4* 3* 2* Avg Rating
2009 10 0 0 9 1 2.900
2008 8 0 2 5 1 3.125
2007 11 0 0 7 4 2.636
2006 19 0 2 13 4 2.894

2009

James Scott, right now, is the only 2-star commit, however, I wouldn't be surprised to see his stock rise a bit so long as he qualifies. There is a ton of talent in this class in the defensive backfield and DT Romario Cathey was recently upgraded to a 3-star, perhaps the toughest position to recruit. No elite players (i.e. 4-star), but some really good players here.

2008

The big players in this class was McKinner Dixon and Brandon Sesay. Dixon is a difference-maker and Sesay seems to be still getting his bearings, on and off the field. Broderick Marshall didn't qualify, Joey Fowler is off the team and Brandon Reid is having grade issues. Cody Davis should see lots of time next year and it would be really nice to see Jarell Routt step-up a bit, although I'm not counting on that in the least.  I think it should also be mentioned that Ruffin McNeill was named as defensive coordinator during 2008 and there just might be a correlation with the higher level of recruits.

2007

A very large class and there's a lot of talent here, that's still with the team and contributing in a big way. Agoucha was a casualty and I think that Daniel Howard has been better than a 2-star recruit, he's exceeded my expectations. Where this class will shake out is if and when we get to see Sam Fehoko and Tyrone Sonier hit the field, while Bront Bird is already playing quite a bit. Again, this was a really solid class.

2006

This was a huge class and honestly, I can't remember some of the players that committed, but never made it. However, the two 4-star players, Leonard Hewitt and Daniel Johnson, never made it to Texas Tech and 2-star LB Trevor Reilly is actually a 3-star DE commitment this year as he was on a church mission. The absolute star of this class is DE Brandon Williams who was rated as a 2-star DE, but has turned into a tremendous player.

Parting Thoughts

Much like the offense, there was a reliance on the 2-star recruit in 2006 and 2007, but the tide turned a bit in 2008 and 2009 and I think the quality of player has certainly improved. Keep in mind that the two 4-star recruits that made the numbers look so good in 2006 didn't play a down for Texas Tech while the two 4-star recruits in 2008 factored heavily in an improved defense. It would be nice to have some 4-star recruits in 2009's class, but I'm not complaining and the staff isn't settling for 2-star guys.

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When we can average closer to 4 than to 3 overall,

then we will be bringing in players that an develop faster and be of greater impact on the play on the field. I feel there is a definate improvement in the level of talent the coaches are going after and signing. It is so difficult to pull the 5 and 4-star recruits away from UT, OU and A&M, as well as Baylor. What really hurts is when Nebraska, Miami, Forida State and others reach into texas and pull out some of the top talent. Hopefully, with the improvement of the Big-12 overall, more of the recruits will remain in texas, with us getting our “fare” share. If the share can be on par with the aformentioned schools, THEN we will have arrived, especially with the coaching abilities of the texas tech staff.

TTpilk

by TTpilk645 on Jan 8, 2009 12:20 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Bare in mind these rankings an be worthless

Great job summing up the progression in the talent pool. I am a firm believer that it’s more about developing an athlete than what these reports state. Speed is something too look at that counts the most. Tech’s defense needs serious help with regard to LB’s and DB’s. I hope out ’09 season has some incresed speed in the secondary and possibly some freshman. Tech has definately improved in recruiting and should only get better. Still find it hard to believe that schools like A&M and Baylor attract good football recruits.

by Raider1992 on Jan 8, 2009 12:45 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Great Analysis

Nice Work Seth. As a follow up, I would also be interested to learn how the other Big 12 programs have fared to see who is above us, below us, as well as to see our progression (or lack thereof) relative to other Big 12 schools. Not that you have anything better to do.

Thanks again!

by LondonRaider on Jan 8, 2009 1:33 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

I still do not understand how TAMU gets multiple 4 star WR recruits

year in and year out. I cannot remember the last time they have completed a pass for more than 10 yards at a time but still get good receiving talent.

I guess a school can live on their reputation for quite some time but I was really hoping we would see significant improvement in our recruiting class this year because of the year we had on the field.

Alot of people say you wont see the effect this season has on recruiting until next year but I still find it hard to beleive especially with the sucess Crabtree has had here that we havent attracted any stud WRs.

I am very happy where we are as a program but just saying…..

by WALKERMAN on Jan 8, 2009 1:45 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Great work Seth!

I think that is you look on Rivals and see who Tech has aleast recruited and even been in the conversastion with you will see that our “stock” is definitely going up. To actually have 2 4star Wideouts from mid-west consider and even visit is a real coupe to me. Also, Tech aleast again was in the conversation with 2 5 star players. I don’t think our recruiting in the last 40 yrs has been quit as bad as 60 minutes made it out to be but Tech still has to work hard to find the real jewels each year. As far as A&M it seems either their recruits are way over valued or they don’t develop them. This area will continue to get better. Tech must continue to improve facilities but they Jones crowds are definitely a plus when a kid visits during a game. Wreck’em Tech Keep Leach

by techgolf44 on Jan 8, 2009 2:26 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks Seth! I love to hear about improvement in recruiting!

Don’t have time to read it all right now, but I’ll sure read every word next time I get a chance.

by TT4EVER on Jan 8, 2009 2:55 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Thanks for the data

I can’t believe how many of those kids washed out. That sucks.

by Plano Jeff on Jan 8, 2009 3:46 PM CST reply actions   0 recs

Defense…I think Tech’s primary issue is the fact that the depth is terrible almost across the board defensively. Having only one or two quality recruits each year is a killer. There has been almost no improvement (lack of attention to it?) in Tech’s defensive recruits if we are only looking at stars. So is it any wonder we haven’t really gotten THAT much better on defense?

There are more variables than stars that determine if we’ll have a solid unit (coaching, scheme, players adapting to college, grades, chemistry, leadership, etc) But if recruiting is a good place to start with the evaluation, you don’t have to look that deep to see why we fall short in the performance on the field.

Offense…I think we do fine with offensive recruiting. We seem to have a very good knack for finding guys who are rated somewhat low and elevating them into really good college players. I credit Leach and the other offensive coaches for that. It’s tough to find the glamour guys when they don’t grow up wanting to play for Tech, though with some of the kids that could be changing.

I can really understand how very, very difficult it is to persuade a highly rated offensive player to pick Tech over the OUs/UTs of the world – their offense is just as dynamic as ours, they have better facilities, they have traditions, they almost always play in a BCS game and they almost always contend for titles. On top of that, the other guys seem to send a LOT of guys to the NFL. We don’t. Yet. Offensively,

I don’t worry too much about the guys we get for offense. There are so many more good high school athletes to pick from on the offensive side, that even if we don’t win the head to head battles with the traditional powers, there are plenty to go around.

Where we have to really work and focus is on the limited number of really good defensive recruits who are D-I ready. There are just fewer of them to pick from (we all know high school coaches put the best players on offense if they can).

by Tech92 on Jan 8, 2009 6:07 PM CST up reply actions   0 recs

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