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Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win :: New Mexico Lobos Edition

This weekly feature considers five reasons why Texas Tech will win and five reasons Texas Tech will lose to each opponent. Related: Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: New Mexico Lobos Edition.

Reason #1 :: The Proverbial Chip on Shoulder: Jeez, what a week and although I'm not anyone connected with anyone, I'm thinking that this team just might be a little ticked. You guys mentioned it yesterday and I think we all get the feeling that if the team doesn't come out and simply dominate, then if you thought last week was fun on DTN . . . just wait. With that being said, I don't think that happens and I think the Red Raiders will have somewhat of an attitude on Saturday afternoon. And I think we'll know a lot about our Red Raiders and whether or not they have the stomach for the fight.

Star-divide

Reason #2 :: Dominate Statistically: I'll just lump each and every one of the statistical categories into this one reason, rather than spread them out over a few reasons. Long story short, the Lobos are struggling mightily and although the Red Raiders aren't necessarily world-beaters in almost every statistical category. Perhaps the biggest statistical categories that might be germane to handling the Lobos is quite simply the total offense of Texas Tech which is 13th in the nation vs. the New Mexico defense which is 107th in nation. I just don't see how New Mexico scores enough points to keep pace.

Reason #3 :: Find Batch Early, Often and Late: One of the best stories that came out of last week's loss to Houston was the fact that the running game got back on track. Perhaps the biggest part of that was that Terry McDaniel got the start at left tackle, Chris Olson moved to guard, who looked really good pulling and making blocks down the field. I thought the other advantage that the running game had was that Leach reunited RG Brandon Carter and RT Marlon Winn that looked really good. Unfortunately, the Carter-Winn reunion will take a one week hiatus, but the key will be for Texas Tech to continue what they started. And I don't just mean running the ball early, like last week, but the team needs to continue to run the ball all game long. I'm very excited about seeing round 2 of Baron Batch, Eric Stephens and Harrison Jeffers.

Reason #4 :: Maturation of the Run Defense: It's strange to think that this time last year, the Red Raiders were 32nd in the nation in rush defense, after playing Eastern Washington, Nevada, SMU and Massachusetts. This year, this defenseis 29th in the nation in rush defense after playing two highly explosive offensive teams and there's a lot of credit that should go to the play of MLB Brian Duncan, SLB Bront Bird and WLB Marlon Williams. I think that for a game like Saturday's, where New Mexico has a large back in James Wright, I think you'll see the tremendous value of having a guy like Bird be able to stop the run. New Mexico has struggled to really so much as complete a pass and I could see Ruffin McNeill selling out to stop the run this week.

Reason #5 :: Pushing the Long Ball: I think Taylor Potts is statistically doing just fine in his 4th game of his young career. Potts is currently sitting around 7.56 yards per attempt, which is plenty good, especially for playing 2 top 20 teams, but on Saturday, I'd love to see Potts air it out a bit down the field. Of course, the first part of this is that the Red Raiders will need to give Potts plenty of time in the pocket, which shouldn't be a huge issue, but I'd love to see guys like Lyle Leong, Tramain Swindall and Edward Britton get deep on the New Mexico secondary. These guys are due for huge days.

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All good points...

here and I do think the passing game will be huge in this one. I really want to see more of our running attack so I hope Mike keeps that in the game plan. Teams up the road will expect Tech to pass on nearly every down and fine tuning a running game among our elites will serve as good practice. The defense has played awesome so far IMO. I hope to see our secondary pull some interceptions out of the air. This would also be a great game for our special teams to show some promise that we have all been expecting to see. Lastly, if I were Leach I would emphasize the penalties we have been receiving and make it clear that those are killing our game plan. Tougher competition lies ahead and this would be a great opportunity to work out some weaknesses.

by Raider1992 on Oct 1, 2009 1:12 PM CDT reply actions  

Last Week Hurt Like No Other!!!

I was at the 1980 SMU game when we had the #2 team in the nation down w/10 seconds left in the game…. and lost on a 100 yard kick-off return. That one hurt. But the loss to Houston last week hurt about 1000x worse to me. To say that emotions have been running high since then would be an understatement. (for both fans and players) I have no comment on Brandon Carter because I was punching everything in my house. I wasn’t just hurt, I was incensed!!!! I can’t even begin to imagine how the players feel deep down in their gut. I’m certain it’s not pretty.

I have to believe that the team will play like no other this week. The wrath that will be released will be like nothing we’ve seen before. I don’t think hanging 100 on them is out of the realm……..I really believe that they’re that p.o.‘d. These Red Raiders are more than fierce competitors, they’re winners!!!!!!

Actually, I’m really hoping that the fury unleashed this week is beyond measure….mainly because I’ll be there to watch it!!!

GUNS UP!!!!!!!
WRECK ’EM TECH!!!!!!!!!

"There's nothing that cleanses your soul like getting the hell kicked out of you." Woody Hayes

by cityman on Oct 1, 2009 2:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Its going to be rough on Lobos( Lupus,Lupus)

Tech wins this game going away. Raiders in getting off the mat can do the following: the offense displays its precise and rapid scoring capability and the defense forces numerous changes of possession. In effect exercising the demons from the last 2 x road games. We are at home and it’s the Jones. Nice.

Reason #1
Exactly the problems the Raiders faced in the last 2 x games at Houston in particular – will be dogging the Lobos. Travel. Hostile crowd, (lots of noise) faster Raider DB’s and receivers, a Line backing corps which appears to have found itself. IE they the LB’s – lead in tackles for the team. I like that. OBW It’s not comforting when your team is not good at third down conversions. Of any stripe apparently.

Reason #2 It’s tough to throw when your o line is not holding the d line out. Look at the completion rate of the Lobos offense. In a word ouch.

Reason #3
The Lobos are not going to get many chances because the running game of the Raiders is going to dominate the TOP battle. Just saying we have started to run like we were expected to do. Weapons galore amongst the Tech RB’s. Conversely I’d expect the Lobos to try to shorten the game with their RB’s and a short high percentage throws and try to replicate the Nebraska game plan. It doesn’t appear that their young team has the O line and depth to get this type of run game going. None of their opponents to date have displayed as good a defense (maybe Air Force??) as the Raiders have shown over the last several weeks. I agree with Seth the raider defense has been as severely tested as anybody in the country over the last 2 weeks. Lots of post game hot tub time and pain killers distributed.

Reason #4
The special teams of the Raiders are way over due for a block and a monster return or two. I’m not talking about blocking FG either it’s a punt we are after. If the offense does its job as I expect they will to the tune of 5- 9 scoring drives that means lot of strip chances, conversely the Lobos kick off only 1 – 2 x times and punt 7- 9 x times. With that number of punts its fair bet we get a couple of long returns.
Did I mention that it’s at the Jones and the hostile Techsans are going to welcome the visitors with a lot of hysterical and debilitating crowd noise?

Reason #5
If you think the distractions of suspending a player are bad, just imagine the confusion and hesitation displayed by a Coaching staff at war with itself. Good lord if the Coaches can’t keep their emotions in check do you think the players are getting quality practices, reps and technique refinement? I’m not saying it’s a game changer but it’s got to be another distraction in the club house.BTW I listened to their Head Coach last night on Tech Talk and he sounded very calm and collected .Good for him. But I wonder about those staff meetings.

"do routine things routinely"

by centexraider on Oct 1, 2009 2:54 PM CDT reply actions  

Starting with this game

I think the team gets back on track to how we all thought they would be heading in to this season. The fallout from the UH game is finally settling down (myself included—my faith in the team is restored) and I think they will woop up on UNM before starting conference play. From there, I truly can see us running the table, but even if we don’t do that I think we only lose one more game max. Hopefully, OU and OSU can beat UT. If that happens and we run the table, a big 12 title berth is OURS!!!! That isn’t THAT unlikely of a scenario, either.

by techtom4 on Oct 1, 2009 3:27 PM CDT reply actions  

No predictions or embellishments. We just win against a team that is having it much harder than Tech. How badly they lose may be determined on how hard they play. I hope they put up a good fight as I wish nothing bad on them, except defeat.

TTpilk

by TTpilk645 on Oct 1, 2009 9:09 PM CDT reply actions  

We don't need five reasons

We are playing one poor stuggling team who is on the road in one of the most favorable home fields in college football.

What we need to see on offense is a team that looks like an Air Raid football team. Accurate passes, timely passes, caught passes. Then a running game that is as much a surprise to the defense as it is effective.

What we need to see on defense is quick return of the football to the offense. It does not matter how as long as it is without a score, int’s, fumbles, three or four and out.

Special teams need to be fundamental and special.

The score will take care of itself as will any stat.

by TallMike on Oct 1, 2009 9:43 PM CDT reply actions  

I’ll be at ACL during the game but I hope you guys can cheer the team on in my place. Hopefully I can get some cel reception in the middle of 60,000 people so I can get the scores.

Anyways, the only reason I need is that NM lost to the Aggies by like 35 points. If we can’t win we need to seriously reevaluate ourselves.

The sky is not falling. Losing to two teams by a combined 11 points on the road that are both ranked in the top 12 now I believe, and having a new QB in a passing offense is not reason to panick. We just need to keep improving and do our jobs. The wins will follow.

by logan5555 on Oct 2, 2009 9:57 AM CDT reply actions  

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