Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: Nebraska Cornhuskers Edition

by Seth C on Oct 14, 2009 12:00 PM CDT in Football Comment 9 comments

This weekly feature considers five reasons why Texas Tech will win and five reasons Texas Tech will lose to each opponent. Check back tomorrow for "Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win :: Nebraska Cornhuskers Edition".

Reason #1 :: Dominant Defensive Line: It's not cool to gush about a defensive lineman so much, but Saturday should be an absolute treat in that we'll have the opportunity to watch one of the more dominant defensive linemen I've seen in quite some time. We talked yesterday about how Ndamukong Suh can affect the passing game a number of ways, but there's quite a bit of talent along that defensive line where Jared Crick has been good, but the strange part is that the 2 defensive ends aren't putting a ton of pressure on opposing quarterbacks. DE's Pierre Allen and Barry Turner have 1 sack each and I get the feeling that their job is to stop the run and contain the edges. And that's working to the tune of allowing 8.00 points a game. That's good for 2nd in the country and quite frankly, a shocking number.

Reason #2 :: An Inexperienced QB: As much as Texas Tech fans have discussed the Potts vs. Sheffield debate, there is one certainty in that Sheffield has never played a game in front of a crowd quite like Nebraska. To say that it's not going to matter just isn't true. It does matter. Playing on the road, almost always has an effect on the players and it hasn't looked as if Sheffield has been shaken much, but we're talking about a completely different animal in Lincoln. I'd love to say that it won't have any effect on Sheffield whatsoever, but in trying to be realistic, I do think there will be situations where the Red Raiders will need to overcome mistakes and going into hostile environments, on the road can be very tough, just ask me about my trip to Norman last year.

Reason #3 :: Converting in the Red Zone: It seems like a perfect combination for success is have a defense that only allows 8 points a game (this will obviously increase in conference play) and an offense that will convert red-zone scores. For the year, Nebraska is 19 of 20 in converting in the red-zone, converting 14 of those scoring opportunities into touchdowns and the remaining 5 into field goals. I think this is more of a case of doing what the offense asks you to do, which is not turn the ball over (only 1 a game) and put points on the board. That's not a bad way to win games and thsu far, that's exactly how Nebraska has done it thus far.

Reason #4 :: Offensive Patience: I think we all came away from that game thinking that the bend-but-don't-break defensive philosophy was multiple punches to the gut. It was a very patient Joe Ganz who kept the chains moving, along with very capable possession receivers who seemed to tower over the Texas Tech defensive backs. This morning, DC Ruffin McNeill stated that Nebraska completely changed their offense prior to last year's game (perfect question for Ask a Husker):

"They changed their whole offense before our game last year,’’ said McNeill, who said what Nebraska ran was nothing like what he had watched that week on videotape. "Totally different plays. Totally different passes."

If that's the case, then I can only hope that things will change this year as the Red Raiders will have had a full year to game-plan. What we have seen on the field though is a Texas Tech defense that has played more aggressive, especially with CB's Jamar Wall and LaRon Moore, but don't think for a second that the Cornhuskers won't try to wear down the Red Raider offense.

Reason #5 :: Playing the Spread: I think it works to Nebraska's advantage to play two spread offenses two weeks in a row, Missouri and Texas Tech. I know, more and more teams are moving to the spread, so it's not that big of a deal, but I'm guessing that it's much easier for a defense to prepare for similar offenses. Last week, Missouri struggled against a Nebraska defense and there's something to be said about the downpour of rain (this weekend's weather looks to be perfect) and it's affect on the players, but I think it's silly to deny that Nebraska simply wore Nebraska down in the 4th quarter. It should also be mentioned that the Mizzou QB Blaine Gabbert was injured on one of the early series, affecting the game. Nebraska is going to get after who ever is at quarterback and it will be interesting how Pelini will adjust this week.

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Lincoln NE a great venue for a win

#1 Turnovers: Equals points for a Pelini coached team. Give away the ball to NE and expect to get a FG or 7 points hung on you. As stated by Seth – based on the Huskers very good red zone offense its more likely to be a TD.

2 Special teams: Playing positional football. Punting to pin folks in their own end of the field. It’s an art form and NE can do it very well. However Erlexban is pretty accurate as well. Question is: Can we get a block on a kick or strip of a Hukser return man? In the monsoon Mizzou game there were 3 x muffed, botched or misfired punts by NE in a driving, cold rain kept the Tigers in the game. That is unlike a NE team. If we get one our chances increase exponentially of prevailing. If they get one of ours we probably give up a score. (Like aTm did on us last year.)
3 Trench warfare: Techs O line is good NE d line is also well coached, well conditioned and smart. It’s a push in my mind. Perhaps a slight edge to NE because of the All American N. Suh. But the QBs for Tech are good at the quick release. So if they don’t sack Sticks we win. How simple is that?

4 Tech linebackers must tackle for no gain consistently. As talked about earlier it’s a game plan to push our rush defense to the limit. If Tech stops the first down play at 4 or less yards per carry we have a huge margin for victory. That’s not likely to happen. Let Helu get 6 or 7 yards on first down and it’s a going to be a certified nail biter. Tech has a poor record when letting any opposition get up around (or over) 200 yards on the ground.
5 YAC: Tech must execute on every pass because we are not going to get very many opportunities in Lincoln. Guess what I am saying is make the most of the opportunity given. Unlike the NE receivers who after a catch want to keep the clock rolling. Who want to stay in bounds after gaining 6-8 yards. The Raiders on the other hand need to catch and get out of bounds. It’s the opposite of what they want to see happen. Ok maybe it’s not exactly how they have been coached but they want to run the clock. We need to preserve the clock because we’ll want multiple scoring opportunities. Tech wins routinely if we score more than 35 points. They want to limit the exposure of their defense to our passers quick release. I feel our receivers are in better shape than their linebackers. We need to make them run up and down the field a lot. Enroute to picking up a whole S@#$potful of first downs.

"do routine things routinely"

by centexraider on Oct 14, 2009 1:38 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

You know I never thought about this, but

Since we have an enless supply of recievers/ running backs which will have to be covered by LBs and they don’t know if it’s a decoy or not, AND they don’t have an endless supply of LBs, might we just run fly routes until either the LBs tire out OR the give up and we’re wide open. Oh well, would prolly mess the pass patterns.

by Plano Jeff on Oct 14, 2009 10:03 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

KEY: SHEFFIELD

I think this game simply rides on the shoulders of SHEFFIELD. If he takes what the defense gives him and does not force the ball, especially in the RED ZONE, I think we win . The defense will play off the momentum of the offense. I expect the offensive line to have several holding and off sides that kill, or nearly kill some drives. This is where Sheff has to keep his head, and not force the ball on 3rd and long. If the offense keeps the momentum of the game , the defense will respond accordingly. I see a game, alot like the UT game,in turnovers and penalties, but we have a better QB this game, and if he calls a good game, we win.

by Dr. Mark on Oct 14, 2009 2:11 PM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Correct Dr. Mark

I see it the same way. Literally a game where Tech must overcome adversity (setbacks) on every drive.

"do routine things routinely"

by centexraider on Oct 14, 2009 2:16 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

I agree that the TTU qb can cause the team to lose, he if does not play well the team clearly will not be able to score points or move the chains.

But Shefflied could play a perfect game and others on the team not do so and still a loss could occur.

The coaches consistently talk about the sides of the ball, even getting to four sides this season, that is the key to the win—everyone playing well and doing what they have been coached to do.

by TallMike on Oct 14, 2009 10:07 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs

Sheffield important, agreed.

But I think equally important for Batch and Jeffers to have a big game (blocking and running).

Random keys for Tech IMO:
1. Gotta be committed to RUN the ball. It won’t be pretty against their front, but you have to make them respect the run a little. Otherwise you might end up with a similar game to the Mizzou game 2 or 3 years ago.

2. Sheffield and Leach need to be patient and continue to call Run plays to keep front d-line honest. Again, won’t be pretty.

3. Limit mental mistakes and turn-overs (obvious). Gotta protect the ball b/c this will be a very physical game.

4. LB’s (and rest of D for that matter) need to play their role and trust the other guys to do their job. Need to be disciplined on D this week.

5. Don’t try to do too much. We’ve had success this year when we just play our game and focus on everyone doing their job. We’ve struggled when we try to do too much or make the spectacular play.

Sorry if this seems a little too obvious. But, that’s how I see it.

by imisswesttexas on Oct 15, 2009 9:32 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Only 2 reasons why NE might win

Last year the Huskers did two things and almost won. First of all they have to play a perfect game on both sides of the ball. They were almost flawless last year and it was a dog fight if you remember. The second thing is the coaching. The Huskers had a perfect game plan last year. They controlled the ball and ran out the clock. It was scary being at the game and seeing the long time consuming drives by the Huskers.

All the hoopla about Suh is just that. He had 6 tackles last week, one a sack and one for a loss ( I believe). The O line will be fine. Tech needs some D stops or we lose this one…

by DoubleT on Oct 15, 2009 11:18 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

I saw Ruffins comments about NE

and how they changed all their plays last year. Too bad Leach didn’t do that against OU last year. It would have confused them. They knew the exact plays we ran – Oh Duh…

by DoubleT on Oct 15, 2009 11:21 AM CDT reply actions 0 recs

Too right!

Guess thats the tendancy over whelming the tactics. Ie We can’t learn any new plays because we might confuse someone on our team. I think dedfisher said last season “if Tech runs the ball” .. we win. That was vs Ole Miss..

"do routine things routinely"

by centexraider on Oct 15, 2009 1:25 PM CDT up reply actions 0 recs