Looking at common opponents TTU vs OSU
by RAIDERdweb on Nov 10, 2009 10:54 AM CST
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So usually I hate doing this and I'll admit its a dangerous way to look at things, but here goes... Hopefully no one has posted something similar.
I've been more than a little nervous entering this game knowing that SS has been injured in the past couple weeks, but if you look at common opponents I feel a little better about the upcoming game with Potts at the helm.
Our common opponents are UT, UH, Rice, and A&M.
OSU 35 vs. Houston 45
TTU 28 @ Houston 29
OSU 14 vs. UT 41
TTU 24 @ UT 34
OSU 41 vs Rice 24
TTU 55 vs Rice 10
OSU 36 @ A&M 31
TTU 30 vs A&M 52
Obviously the wildcard game is A&M where we got stomped at home and they one at the road, but if you discount that game given that it is the only real game where our defense was completely absent this season then we've played common opponents better. We allowed less points to both UH, UT, and Rice. UT and UH games were home games for OSU and road games for us. What calms my nervousness a little as well is that these games were with Taylor Potts at the helm, which is what I expect will be the case this weekend barring some quick rehab by SS. I think in comparison our defense is significantly better than theirs despite them ranking statistically slightly higher than us.
Defense Stats from yahoo sports
Total points against per game
TTU 23.4 vs OSU 21
Total yards against per game
TTU 355.6 vs OSU 331.3
The statistical gap is not that large between the two (<20 teams) with similar levels of competition in unshared opponents. Its always dangerous to put too much faith in this kind of comparison, but 4 common opponents is a decent crosssection and I thought I'd share as it calmed my nerves. If our defense plays as well as they have minus A&M, I think we win this game on the road. All the shared games featured Taylor Potts at the helm and I believe TTU fared better especially when you take into account that we played the two toughest (UT and UH) on the road while they had them at home. The wildcard is the A&M game, if we have another letdown like that we won't beat anybody. Here's to hoping these games tell us something. Wreck 'em Tech!!
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Man, I don’t know about this… We’d a 4-2 advantage over the Sooners w.r.t. margin of victory over common opponents last year. (UT, OSU, KU, KSU) – (Neb, Bay)
In fact we’d won all of those common games while OU had lost one of them… to UT.
Final score: OU 65 Tech 21.
Also, OSU’s o-line looks rock solid. I saw the first half of the UT-OSU game and the Horns’ d-line was getting absolutely zero penetration. UT’s secondary bailed them out. That game could’ve been much much closer than 41-14.
I’m telling ya.. we better watch out.
Dangerous yes...
I agree with you that it is a dangerous way to look at things, and I realize it is inherently flawed, however I simply stated that it did make ME feel a little better about our chances. I think last year against OU was significantly different with respect to what was at stake and momentum going in than this year is. I don’t think we’ll overlook OSU in any way. I’ve felt that OSU was going to be one of the biggest games of the season before we even started playing games as far as statement games goes. They are supposed to be the team on the rise this year and us beating them in Stillwater would do a lot to establish us as next in line. I definitely agree that we should watch out, I was not trying to say that based on common opponents we’ll win, just that even with Taylor Potts at the helm I think we have a great chance to win this on the road.
It’s going to come down to our ability to stop Toston and maybe Hunter. If we have fewer than 7 in the box all day, we’re doing something wrong.
Agree
Hopefully Ruffin isn’t too stubborn. Hoping Sharpe will continue to dominate as well even though OSUs oline has been great thus far.
Defense will be the difference maker
in this game. Throw away all the stats as with this team this year you never know who will show up to play. If Ruffin prepares these guys and they want to play we will win. I think our defense can compete with anybody provided the game planning is there and player motivation. OSU always plays Tech tough when it’s in Stillwater so expect a close game early on. I don’t see this being a close finish as I figure one of these teams will dominate late. I’m hoping Tech wares out their defense. I keep preaching the running game because I strongly believe in it. Batch and Jeffers could be the best combination in the back field among all Big 12 schools. I say use these guys as opposing defenses plan to cover pass plays all day. Our backs will break down OSU’s line over time and dominate the running game. If the correct Tech defense gets off the bus we win this game.
Best defense wins
I agree that defense is the way to win this game. I think that was my biggest reason for comparing common opponents is that I believe our defense is better than theirs. I know that they are slightly ahead of us in most statistical categories, but I the team has done enough to make me believe we have the better defense of the two teams (provided they don’t lay an uninspired egg like at aTm).
Defense and turn-overs
Agree ‘92. Defense will dictate this game and specifically our run defense. However, our running game can, in effect, be a 12 player on the defense this week. Meaning if we can establish a decent running attack, it will keep them off the field and will give our D a chance to rest and regroup.
So even though Batch is a running back, I’m listing him and anyone else at RB this week under the defense roster. It’s uber important to limit the 3 and outs. Need each offensive series to go at least 5 – 6 plays minimum.
Unless of course we have about 7 or 8 seventy yrd passing TD’s. I’d be okay with that.
by imisswesttexas on Nov 11, 2009 11:56 AM CST up reply actions
I agree with Johnlaf…there is nothing to be gleaned from the common opponent idea. Each game unfolds in its own unique way. Bad throws, missed reads, penalties, minor injuries, penalties…they all play into a particular game.
All it tells me is we played the common opponents fairly evenly with only marginal score differences. Tech and OSU are VERY similar in most aspects of the game – the key differences being they have one heck of an offensive line (four sacks all year), and we have a sketchy unit; and they run the ball more often than we do. Other than that, there’s not a statistically significant difference between the two squads to this point.
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