Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: Oklahoma Sooners Edition
This weekly feature considers five reasons why Texas Tech will win and five reasons Texas Tech will lose to each opponent. Check back tomorrow for "Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win :: Oklahoma Sooners Edition".
Reason #1 :: Sacks = Losses: I wish I could give you some great statistic about how when this team gives up sacks the Red Raiders tend to lose. That's really not the case. In losses, the Red Raiders are giving up 2.25 sacks per game for 123 yards and in wins, it's 3.00 per game for 160 yards. The only thing that I can say with absolute certainty is that the continued inability to protect the quarterback is having a certain negative effect on the rushing game (more on this below). Meanwhile, as discussed yesterday, the Sooners are terrific at rushing the passer and getting behind the line of scrimmage, good for both 2nd in the nation. In fact, DT Gerald McCoy has 13.5 TFL for the year and the below-mentioned Jeremy Beal has 16 TFL.
Reason #2 :: Rushing the Passer with Success: Quick question, how many 100 yard games did Texas Tech have last year? It's 11. This year, it's a grand total of 3 games where the running backs have accounted for more than 100 yards. For the year, the Texas Tech offense has gained 712 yards for the year, and if the Red Raiders were to add yards lost due to sacks, the Red Raiders would be sitting at 995, which is a lot closer to being the Texas Tech of 2008. It's the sacks and the sacks lead to significant negative yards and the significant negative yards lead to long 3rd downs and the long 3rd downs will eventually lead to bad decisions as a quarterback tries to make up that yardage. To reiterate, the Oklahoma defense has been absolutely killer at sacking the quarterback and to dedicate 2 reasons to just one reason proably doesn't indicate the nervousness about this Texas Tech offensive line trying to protect this quarterback.
Reason #3 :: Jones Can Play: It's easy to pick on Oklahoma QB Landry Jones, however, despite his 11 interceptions, he's still thrown 17 touchdowns for the year, the scary part is that he's capable of throwing 5 picks and 5 TD's in any given game. If you take out the horrific game against Nebraska and now Jones is looking like a pretty good option at quarterback, especially considering the very youthful offensive line. Jones is a lot like Potts in that there's certainly talent and ability there, it's more of a question of doing it consistently. If Jones doesn't get pressured, then he should have no issues making all of the right throws.
Reason #4 :: Beal is One of the Best: Despite injuries along the defensive line, DE Jeremy Beal has been out-freaking-standing and now Beal with have the distinct pleasure of lining up against two tackles that have seemingly given up at times during the game. I'm not a draft expert, but my guess is that Beal is an elite prospect for the NFL. Not to mention, Beal helped lead the charge last year with 2 sacks for 19 yards, including a forced fumble. I won't have time to truly detail the type of success the Oklahoma defense is having this year, but the truth is that the defense has been absolutely dominant. The most points the Sooners have given up all year is 30 against Kansas St. and they still won by 12 points. It would be unfair and irresponsible to blame the OU defense for any of the losses, sans the loss to Miami (this is a stretch) where they gave up 21 points.
Reason #5 :: Running for Wins: If I had to guess, I think that the OU offensive coordinator will try to run the ball in the hopes that it takes some pressure off of Jones. In OU's 4 losses, the Sooners rush for only 83.75 yards a game, while in wins it's 194.17 yards a game. OU's maligned offensive line was the concern early in the season, however, this group is no longer inexperienced and the key for the Sooners will be establishing the run early and often against the Red Raiders. I know this is a five reasons why Texas Tech will lose, but another factor is that the Sooners are great running the ball at home, averaging 216.00 yards a game, while on the road, it's only 106.00 yards a game and in neutral sites, its 51.00 yards a game.
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Comments
Offense
Both teams have had ups and downs from all sides of the ball, so this game, to me is a toss-up. Since Tech is at home, I must go with the Red Raiders….by a point or two.
TTpilk
by TTpilk645 on Nov 18, 2009 12:19 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Mostly, sacks are hurting the offense
because neither of our quarterbacking options can stay healthy when they’re getting domed on a regular basis, win or lose. If last year’s O-Line was the Secret Service to Graham Harrell’s President, this year’s O-Line is the Praetorian Guard to the quarterbacking corps’ frequently assassinated Roman Emperors.
by mojavereject on Nov 18, 2009 1:38 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Funny but painful
So to be more direct other pretenders to the throne of the Tech QB position are trading sacks on Ebay to the highest bidder? Give me $100 and I’ll let you hit the QB?
"do routine things routinely"
by centexraider on Nov 18, 2009 2:26 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
All of the above...
are great reasons why we should lose this game. Hard to stay motivated and positive about our season. I would like to win out but I just don’t see us beating OU with this squad. Hopefully it happens but it could be a very long day. I would have never guessed back in August we would be fighting for bowl eligibility at the end of the season.
by Raider1992 on Nov 18, 2009 2:57 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I am with you, Seth, except where the sacks are considered part of the rushing game.
Yes, indeed, there is little to discuss when thinking plus yards, minus yards, it was not a pass. In truth, a sack is part of the passing game, it is a passing game risk, the same as a td…hey, a qb even gets credit for a completion in the event of an interception.
The rushing game can benefit from a sack attempt that goes to the good of an offense when the qb breaks containment and gets positive yards, but that was not the plan, it was not the called play, it was not the indended result, it was dumb luck and athleticism.
This is significant this season because it is painfully a chronic problem this season.
Bottom line remains as you indicated, when TTU gains more than 100 yards on the ground there are more wins for the Air Raid and so goes the converse with less wins.
I expect there is as much concern about the Air Raid Offense’s passing game as there is about the coming team’s defense. They are having a dickens of a time simply executing the fundamental kiddie football kind of plays. I saw a team of 12 year olds execute two of the pass plays to the wr behind the LOS lined up triple wrs right and triple wrs left. They did it with ease in a league play-off level game.
Another thought is that both Marlon Williams and Wall are likely out for the game.
by TallMike on Nov 18, 2009 3:49 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
We gotta stop OU’s run game. We have to make landry beat us with throws. We need to get in his face the whole game. i hope the offense can play with some consistency this game. We cant afford to leave points on the field.
by wrench_raider on Nov 18, 2009 6:14 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
I plan to be pleasantly surprised when we beat OU Saturday.
Things don’t look good, but I hope we win. We’ve been so inconsistent all year, you just have to figure this will be our game to bounce back and play lights out on offense.
by merrik on Nov 18, 2009 6:36 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Interesting thoughts from campus
1. There are more people camped out for this game than any other game this year.
2. Raidergate still managed to get rid of all passes even though its at 730 am
3. We all agree to hate OU
4. It’s blackout
5. Rumor has it, if we win we are rushing the field (I do not condone in this situation, but what the hey right?)
by RdrPwr on Nov 18, 2009 9:42 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
Raidergate is incredible !!
I hope some of the Lubbock locals exert effort to support these youngsters with vittles and refreshment.
by TallMike on Nov 18, 2009 10:12 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
breakfast tacos, ribeye ends, mimosas, bloody marys, coors light, miller light, josh abbott band, washers, and passing a football around sound good enough? We can sleep when we’re dead!!! All the Lubbock locals need to do is distract the state troopers at the student entrance so they dont put us on the freedom bus for stumbling.
by RdrPwr on Nov 19, 2009 12:53 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Well, in all honesty, if the party is alcohol based, it is not prudent for the locals to get so involved, they risk being nabbed for contributing.
by TallMike on Nov 19, 2009 8:29 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
True, but it really doesnt matter out there. Cops tell everyone there to just make sure all drinks stay in the cups, so they “dont see alcohol”. Only people I have ever seen cops give any trouble to at all were some kids that got into a fight last year. My freshman year I had a TABC officer tap me on the shoulder as I poured a beer. Scared me pretty bad, but he just laughed and asked me to make sure and put that can in the trash when I was finished. I think its good the way they handle it since no cars can leave there until half. Let kids be kids! But after attending every raidergate since I’ve been in Lubbock, walking past those troopers still bothers me.
by RdrPwr on Nov 19, 2009 8:38 PM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Thank you for your objective replies. I admit that I am out of sync with what happens. I still think and react the way I have for many, many years—the way I was taught. When I was a frosh or a soph, I would be in jail…and nearly was a couple of times.
by TallMike on Nov 20, 2009 8:13 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs
Hopefully there will be many painted faces
It’s “Brandon Carter Out” . . .should be a fun game. I’m staying optimistic.
by taraebeth on Nov 18, 2009 10:56 PM CST reply actions 0 recs
thanks for the reminder!!!
will have dye and face paint at my front right corner at raidergate for all.
by RdrPwr on Nov 19, 2009 12:51 AM CST up reply actions 0 recs

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