Random things to worry about for the upcoming Bowl game

Sitting in section C333 of the Arlington Jerry World stadium and then re-watching the Baylor replay. I was struck by the up and down nature of this season. Fellow bloggers you should worry that the same  non precision executing team which played aTm shows up -  as it collects its Bowl swag and  limps home to Lubbock. I am not predicting a poorly played game. But sometimes the Raiders worry me.

 Leach talks about consistency. I think that’s about right.  Our much admired Raiders will play a 13th game this season. That’s a good thing. So let’s look for a bit of a surge, a coming out party if you will or a plain old beat down versus our esteemed Michigan State Bowl opponent.  And yes  the Spartans def coordinator  will undoubtedly  copy the Al Groh coached Cavaliers  @  the 07 Gator Bowl, or  the Bo Pelini Neb,  2008 Lubbock  game plans.  Heck, Even Baylor tried to run a pass heavy version of keep away.  Briles and his staff just didn’t count on the 3 x fumbles forced by the Tech defense and a stiff red zone defense. Which included a interception by a guy who played two snaps.  The Big 10 opponent, Michigan State -  will use this game plan - you  can bet on it  baby. We will see 3 - 5 time consuming drives consisting of 3 yards and cloud of dust- on first and third downs, and a 4 yard pass to keep the clock rolling. While the opponents defense  runs a series of zone blitzes in order to get "Nick"  to start getting happy feet. All designed to get "Nick" to not be able to make his 3rd read that is routinely open. I saw at least 4 of the 18 misses by – he who is named Nick -  where the 3rd receiver was open but not thrown too.  BTW we punted 5 times  or turned the ball over and then attempted to converted 3 of 5  4th downs vs.  Baylor? One does not count because it was fake FG and that was cool. Trying to win and daring greatly is neat.

Looking at Michigan State offense how do I put this -  it is okay? Might be too tepid a word but they lost to 5 opponents by an average of 8 points or less. In fact the only game they lost where they could not score enough to keep up was Penn State losing by 28. In that game the Nittany Lions exploded for 4  x scores in the 3rd period.  Versus Wisconsin, Minnesota, Central Michigan, Iowa and an average Notre Dame team – in all these games they had the chance to draw even or win.  Much as I hate to quote a media  tool – Gary Danielson – he is right. It’s not about team strength versus strength it’s more likely how the other hand matches up.  So it is really the Tech defense versus the Michigan state offense. Can they stop a pass heavy attack with a balanced  power running  game?  They throw about 2/3rds of the time, averaging 36 plus passes and 24 rushes a game. It strikes me that these guys look like Minnesota in the Insight Bowl and not just because they are in the Big 10. Now what I don’t think we have to worry about is the Tech Special teams. Excellent senior long snapper- Austin Burns, excellent holder Austin Zouzalik -  nice consistent kicker  in Matt Williams and a competent punter / kicker combo of  Ryan Erxleben and  Donnie Carona. I think we can count on D. Carona getting 2 tackles in this one and 4- 5 touchbacks. No out of bounds kick offs please. Minimum return game for the team in green. Who btw averages over 26 yards per return.

The fact that people we play in bowl matcg ups have a lot more time to prepare for the head pirates style of play gives them what I call a total derailing advantage. There are no Leach play calling tendencies that are not uncovered and packages are developed which are designed to stymie /counter / stuff whatever spread the field advantage a raider offense has. Pat Narduzzi the MSU def coord is a very fine coach.  The scout team for  MSU has a sophomore QB throwing all over the place and a junior running back acting as Baron Batch.. so you see a predictable pattern develops. Tech is forced into 3 and outs, lots of Raider punts and lots of back and forth jockeying with the MSU return and or kick teams. Followed by lots of Raider short outlet dump off completions by Tech QB "Nick" to the RB’s for little gain because those extra DB’s are tackling in space and doing it very well.  After Erlexben punts  - we get to see  lots of Spartan short outlet dump off completions  by QB  Kirk Cousins whose receivers stay inbounds after getting 7(+) yards. Here’s your scouting observation does MSU have any preseason All American Offensive linemen? Because that’s who they run Larry Caper behind.  I worry he gets close to a 100 yards on the Tech front 7.  Houston Nutt had the most talented bunch of the three latest bowl games opponents. The only reason the 08 Cotton Bowl wasn’t a 21 plus point blowout was Darcel McBaths TD interception.  The Raider offense was streaky and off rhythm the whole game. Mostly because the Ole miss defense was plastering the Raider tendencies and swatting at G. Harrell with D linemen. Techs last 13 points scored were essentially in 4th quarter garbage time with no chance to actually challenge the Rebels. Let the Raiders  complete the 6 -7 yard pass  try to keep the receiver in bounds or let the Raider RB take the shovel pass run for a 15 yards gain, just keep him in bounds,  just keep the clock running .

So what should we worry about versus a Big 10 opponent like Michigan State ?  A flip in tendencies 40 plus rushes and 20 plus passes.  Maybe. The QB draw, the trap play ala aTm. Rewind the MSU offense do it again. And our offensive counter is to up the total number of rushes by the Tech RB force their defense to play close to line of scrimmage and then dissect the MSU defense with the slant over the middle at the  (-)10 to 20 yard range. Coach Dantonio will anticipate this very strategy too.

"In terms of disappointment, last year's seniors set the bar for us," MSU coach Mark Dantonio said after Saturday's 42-14 home blowout loss to Penn State. "We were a 9-3 football team. They set the bar. The bar was set. And we didn't measure up to that bar."

 Point, counter point. It would surprise me if this game takes much over 3 hours even with television time outs. Never mind the tv advertising will push it out to 3 hour 45 minute plus that is guaranteed.

I worry "Nick" throws three interceptions. I would be happy with his obligatory  1 x  pick per game. Oh and please do it early in the game. Before I have to buy 2 x more beers for my brother. It’s a second quarter thing folks. You know beer is rented not purchased.

I worry we give up 3 x sacks inside the MSU Red Zone. I am very uncomfortable with the 30 sacks allowed. Injuries got it.  Suspensions got it. Cohesion and position switches got it. Fellow  DTNers that’s not Tech football. And we have the same scenario shaping up for next year with 3 x seniors graduating one being the center. Ouch! I will stop worrying about this unit when they stone Mr.  Greg Jones, the MSU linebacker, leading tackler, who has 9 sacks and 62 solo tackles. And do it 2 x plays in a row Raiders.

I worry Tech only runs back 3 x kicks for scores against MSU. Eric Stephens is money. I for one would really like to see the game changer return very quickly. Seriously after an over 40 yard FG by M. Williams in Arlington and considering it’s an indoors venue  i.e. without wind-  I still worry we have to kick 3  x FG’s. I would like to see multiple TDs by any means and preferably before the end of the 3rd quarter. Who else thinks likewise? The MSU team defense gave up 115 points in the 4th quarter this season as far as points allowed it’s their worst period.

I am not worrying about the  pass rush. Brandon  Sharpe, Rajon Henley and Daniel Howard will get 4.5 sacks between the three seniors.   Maybe it’s a hunch but the Raiders are really going to need them too. I keep remembering the Minnesota tight end Jack Simmons  7  x  receptions /138 yards/ 1 TD.  Who replaced the All American tight end (forget his name) and winner of the Mackey award in 2006. Simmons the backup played lights out versus A. Huffman, M. Bunton  and the other  Tech CB’s through 5/8th’s of the Insight bowl.. does this sound familiar with  the player suspensions on MSU ‘s part?

"STAR WATCH: WR Keshawn Martin had a 71-yard touchdown pass from backup QB Keith Nichol late in the Penn State game, which meant nothing in terms of the game, but it continued Martin's torrid pace. It was his fourth touchdown of 70 or more yards this season, and it gives him 1,213 all-purpose yards."

I want to stop worrying that the Raider running game won’t get 25 x touches and gain 100 plus yards. It’s about breaking tendencies and taking what they give the offense. CPT  Leach can be counted on to confound us sideline pundits if nothing else. In other words if like versus Kansas there are no LB’s on the field it’s going to be a rushing attempt. We hope.

The last rant: bye week or bowl month prep breaks. Leach made the team show up in pads after the Baylor game on Sunday .This is encouraging. However… from  an earlier write up – below:

  I.e. the raiders have a silly weak link in the team prep statistic or put another way a tendency. They lose the edge by breaking the preparation discipline. The opposition plays a big role they are preparing to halt our preferred play selection but it’s deeper than that. In that the Raiders show up sloppy for the first half of a game which has any aberration, any change or any disruption in the practice rhythm. I don’t know maybe it’s too much time off or some such distraction. Seem to throws the practice and preparation rhythm out of joint. Examples include the 06 Cotton bowl, 07 Colorado, 08 Gator bowl, the afore mentioned thrashing in Norman 08.  -  Late season note the Raiders didn’t look real great against OSU in 09 after a bye week. (sad face)

I am ready for criticism for sticking a needle in the Captain but here it is. In last year’s finale the team looked like they needed another week of practice. I am not  a Coach. But I can count. Leach, Harrell and Crabtree picked up a few frequent flier miles before the Cotton Bowl.  Practice sessions are cumulative. Let the hate mail fly.

"Michigan State's 2009 season still has a bowl game left, likely the Alamo in San Antonio or the Insight in Tempe, Ariz. It can already safely be said, though, that this season is a disappointment."

Any statement by a team which portends that woe is me  -  ie  we haven't got a chance is a worry.