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First Year Quarterbacks at Texas Tech

For the first time in two seasons, Texas Tech has a brand quarterback and although we're accustomed and grateful for what Graham Harrell did, it's time to look a bit forward and wonder what Taylor Potts might bring to the Red Raiders as a first year starter under Mike Leach's system.

Going into Graham's second year, I asked how much he could improve from one year to the other, but this time I thought that it might be a good idea to take a look at Symons, Cumbie, Hodges and Harrell's first (and sometimes only) year. The nice part about this is that it's a nice mix of players. It's not just one type of quarterback, which means that perhaps there's actually something to gain from looking at what we can expect. I did not include Kingsbury's first year, although I thought about including his first year in the Air Raid system.  Ultimately I decided that it wasn't in the spirit of what I was trying to do, so I left him out. I don't think the numbers would have changed that much.

Join me after the jump for the numbers.

Star-divide

YR PLAYER YD CMP ATT YD/ATT TD TD/ATT INT INT/ATT CMP% WINS
2003 Symons 5,336 429 666 8.01 48 13.88 21 31.71 64.4 8
2004 Cumbie 4,742 421 642 7.39 32 20.06 18 35.67 65.6 8
2005 Hodges 4,197 353 531 7.90 31 17.13 12 44.25 66.5 9
2006 Harrell 4,555 412 617 7.38 38 16.24 11 56.09 66.8 8
AVG ---- 4,707.50 403.8 614.00 7.67 37.25 16.48 15.50 41.93 65.83 8.25


The Anomaly

Which one of these doesn't belong? Which one of these is not like the others?

I say this every time I take a look at Symons numbers from 2003, but what a freak of a year. Just off the charts in terms of production. It would be easy to throw out Symons stats and say that it is an anomaly, but personally, I consider Symons' 2003 season to be the bar that Potts needs to shoot for. That's not me trying to say that I think that Potts needs over 650 attempts simply because the running game is going to be outstanding, but I like that high bar and I don't think that Leach will be afraid to let Potts go.

Run Percentage

In setting that high bar, you're thinking that there's probably a correlation between the number of rushing attempts and passing attempts, which allowed for Symons to have such incredible numbers.

Leach has just about always run, somewhere in the range of 25% to 35% of the time. We have the two seasons where Leach took it to both extremes in terms of running the ball and passing the ball:

YEAR PLAYS RUN PASS RUN% PASS%
2003 1015 288 727 28.4% 71.6%
2004 944 293 651 31.0% 69.0%
2005 896 308 588 34.4% 65.6%
2006 875 219 656 25.0% 75.0%

In Hodge's 2005 year, behind Taurean Henderson and Hodges' 109 rushing attempts, the offense was pretty balanced, at least more than it has been in recent memory, but it would make sense that the lowest run-to-pass ratio would in Symons 2003 season, but it was Harrell's 2006 season, where Leach not only didn't run the ball very much, but the offensive tempo wasn't there either. There were 185 fewer plays in 2006 and 2003. That's all about tempo and being comfortable, not about running the ball. If Potts could take one thing away from Symons' 2003 season, it's not necessarily the yards or the touchdowns, but rather it's the number of plays while sustaining a very high level of success.

Playing It Safe

What's the one thing that jumps out at Harrell's 2006 season? For me it's the fact that he had over 50 attempts for every interception. Contrast that with the touchdowns per attempt? Now, contrast that with Symons and what does that tell you? For me, it tells me that Symons was a guy that was going to take chances, while in Harrell's first year, he was dead set on playing it safe, evidenced by the lowest yards per attempt of any of the four, although he only beat out Cumbie in that category by one-one-hundredth of a point. There's got to be some middle ground here, and taking a look at Cumbie's 2004 season, his touchdown to attempt ration is far and away better than his partners in crime. Statistically, he's really not much better than his fellow quarterbacks and lost in all of this, sometimes is that Cumbie was just damned good at putting the ball in the endzone.

My Favorite QB Stat

I've probably beaten everyone over the head about yards per attempt and it's a really bad habit, but if you'll indulge me here, I'll try to make this quick. In the Air Raid offense, there may not be a more telling statistic about the success of a quarterback than yards per attempt. Every offense is better when the team is moving the ball vertically, rather than horizontally. That's probably one of the real misconceptions about Leach's offense, is that the intent may be to make it a dink-and-dump offense, but I think this is more than likely a product of the quarterback rather than the offense itself. Exhibits "A" and "B" are Symons and Hodges. Granted, the Air Raid is not as vertical as many other offenses, but taking last year as an example, Texas Tech ranked 20th in the nation at 8.11 yards per attempt. The offense bogs and becomes not as effective if the pass is going sideline to sideline.

Potts Predictions

This is where I hand it off to you. Considering Potts' arm strength, you'd like to think that he's going to be close to 8 yards per attempt, perhaps 40 touchdowns and 15 picks? How many yards?  What about the running game and how will that affect Potts statistics, especially considering this may be one of the most talented Texas Tech backfields with Batch and Jeffers?  What says you?

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Potts

As much as I would love to see Potts throw for over 5,000 next year, I don’t think it will happen. Don’t get me wrong, I think he is very talented and capable of achieving this stat, but I believe next year will be the most balanced we will be in the Leach era in terms of running and passing the ball. The backfield is too talented to simply block for passes all the time. Personally, I think the offense is most fun to watch when the passing game is clicking on all cylinders, and if I had to choose between an extremely balanced attack or a ridiculously powerful passing attack I would choose the latter, because I have always loved passing plays in general. One more thing, something that concerns me about Potts and his ability to break the 5,000 yard mark is his release. Maybe I am the only one who has noticed, but his release is somewhat awkward and it is not very quick at all. Perhaps it won’t matter as much as I think it will, but Potts seems to wind up and push the ball which takes a lot longer than say a Graham Harrell release would.

by techtom4 on Mar 24, 2009 12:18 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

On the flip side

Maybe due to his arm strength, Leach can design some new plays that take advantage of his best aspect and we will get to see a few new plays that past Tech QBs could not execute because their arms aren’t as strong. It will also be very cool to see a 6’5" 220 pound QB in our backfield—-something that has probably never happened.

by techtom4 on Mar 24, 2009 2:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Yep

I agree with you on his release. He definately winds up before he throws the ball. That could lead to problems if he is in a shrinking pocket. Defenders love to grab the ball when a qb is winding up to throw. I hope Leach will improve his release before the season starts.

I think Harrell gets a bad wrap about his arm strength because his release is so quick. Andre Woodson has a cannon for an arm but it takes him too long to get the ball out of his hands.

by txtecheng on Mar 24, 2009 3:46 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

BJ Symons was a monster.

If he had protected the ball a little bit better, we’d never have lost a game.

I’ve always felt that Cody Hodges was the worst of the Tech QBs; just never passed the smell test with me. But he does have some of the better numbers in YPA and int. Looking at the rushing numbers, that and my gut tells me that he was the beneficiary of having more help, from the ground game than the others. I’ve never been an advocate for running the ball more, but perhaps if we’re really interested in Potts continued development, we’d do him a big favor by handing the ball off ~ 33 of the time. Our run game should be strong enough next year, even with the linemen out, especially if Potts demonstrates that big-arm early in the season and keeps opposing safeties deep.

Then again we threw Harrell to the wolves in his first year and that worked out.

More of our offensive plays should be eff it we’re going deep.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Mar 24, 2009 12:22 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Hodges was one of my favorite TTU players. He was a gamer, the only one who would try to (and succeed at) making plays with his feet. Hodge’s biggest problem was his propensity to be tricked into making a certain read (ie the fade route) by coverages. We lost the Cotton Bowl due to that (in addition to a few other things that still haunt my nightmares).

Cumbie was always my least favorite TTU QB, he always seemed slow in decision making and stubborn with his options. In retrospect, he’s probably the one who has had the most successful pro career.

by kayakyakr on Mar 24, 2009 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Or if we would have a any kind of defense that year.

by ST04 on Mar 24, 2009 2:34 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I gotta agree...

I never liked Sonnie Cumbie who looked like a cross between Craig Biggio and a Serial Killer or Cody “fade route” Hodges.

Lets remember BJ played the second half of the season including the Rope a Dope in Austin on only ONE GOOD KNEE. I was behind the goal post upright around which the field goal attempt went wide left by about 2 feet.

BJ was the man!

by Tortilla Pirate on Mar 24, 2009 3:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I say that the Amish Hobo will do pretty well at qb

He seems to have all the tools (arm strength, mobility, height), he just needs to work on accuracy. I expect Potts to be BJ Symons-like except more mobile (BJ had a leg injury of some sort if I remember correctly.)

by Thundarr on Mar 24, 2009 1:13 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Predictions

I say that mike Leach is going to run the ball around 35-40% in 2009. HJ and BB are too good to be denied carries. Potts will have around 40 tds with 10-20 Int.

by Thundarr on Mar 24, 2009 1:31 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Problem

I only see one problem with your analysis. I believe you have misinterpreted the TD/Attempt ratio for Cumbie. I believe that the lower numbers are better. Saying that Cumbie knew how to throw the ball into the endzone would be untrue, he was actually the worst at getting the ball into the endzone. It took Cumbie 20 attempts to gain one TD while Symmons would put it in after 13.

It should also probably be labeled as an Attempt/TD ratio. Cumbie’s TD/Attempt ratio would be .050 or 5%.

by kayakyakr on Mar 24, 2009 1:17 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Agree.

I would tie both stats to attempts, not each other. TD:INT ratio is a good quick smell test, but not a reliable indicator of what we really want to know, which is Int percentage. TD percentage might tell a story about the running game.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Mar 24, 2009 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree, too

Symons easily had the best ATT/TD ratio. His only problem was, because his insane arm strength, he tried to put into the wrong place too often. The best thing about this table is it indicates the ATT/INT ratio went down with each successive “new” QB. What this says is that the play-calling and decision-making seemed to improve. With a better (I hope) running game and improved defensive scheme (again, I hope) this coming year, the PASS/RUN ratio should be better than ever. Also, the number of plays may not change much either way due to this better balance. Also, if the INT/TD ratio is greater (re: wider margin), we could be looking at a similar season to the one last year. I could go on and on about this, but it all points to a good chance to have a great year. GO TECH!

TTpilk

by TTpilk645 on Mar 24, 2009 4:11 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I'll try and correct that tonight.

Sorry for the confusion.

Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation

by Seth C on Mar 25, 2009 7:21 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Unleash Potts

AFter calling for this for two years I must admit that I give Graham Harrell all the props in the world for what he accomplished. But now we get to see a kid that has a real chance to play on Sundays work his magic. I do not believe that the Pirate will swing dramatically to the run game and we will see alot of the big arm. And, in two years, when it comes time for the pros to come calling, the 6-5 Potts will be our first legit big time pro quarterback since Billy Joe surprised the world with his antics. It will be fun and I can’t wait to watch the evolution of Jr. Pirate Potts.

by eddyc555 on Mar 24, 2009 2:46 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

leach

Leach has said it a million times, the last thing he looks for in a qb is arm strength. Quick release, accuracy and fast reads is what leach wants. Hopefully Potts can add his cannon in with those attributes. If so look for Symons’ type numbers.

On a side note. With those highlights of HJeffers the other day, Is he that good or is our future defense that horrible?

by allknowing on Mar 24, 2009 3:54 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

A little of both?

Jeffers is a step up from what we have had for several years (see Ricky Williams) and the D, though improved, is no match for him. Nor will any other defense be a match for him. Think BIG!

TTpilk

by TTpilk645 on Mar 24, 2009 4:14 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Horrible defense

Are you sure those are all starters he is running all over? I would guess the majority of his highlights are against a significant amount of backups.

by techtom4 on Mar 24, 2009 5:06 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

future

i wouldn’t think those are the starters, seems like he would be going up against the “future” defense.

Hopefully he is just that good.

by allknowing on Mar 24, 2009 5:28 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

But...

not being able to tackle is a coaching problem. There’s really little reason for anyone to break 2-3 tackles a run, even against a 2nd team. If Jeffers is really “just that good” then there are running backs elsewhere in the conference who are likewise as good. That’s a problem.

I would much prefer to see him break open scheme runs than simply fail to get tackled, since I have more confidence in our offense opening up things in a game-scheme than I do in our defense’s ability to tackle. I would much prefer to see highlights where our defense was tackling reliably, first string, second string, scout team, who cares? Scout team needs to tackle, too.

Go register. Or else.

by Skin Patrol on Mar 24, 2009 6:59 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Don't Worry

Heres a couple of things to chew on:
1. This is the scout team, not starters
2. More talented players are being introduced into the system by recruiting so the defense is getting better

by Thundarr on Mar 24, 2009 6:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I agree

This offensive system doesn’t require a passer with great arm strength. This is what makes Potts so interesting. Just think what the offense can be like with a QB who DOES a a huge arm.

by techtom4 on Mar 24, 2009 10:55 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Receiver stats?

It would seen to me that you would need to include at least the two leading receiver stats for each of these first year groups. Some thing like 40 times, height, weight and drops per attempt. I just have a hard time making the comparison with out knowing something about what each QB had to work with. I really think this plays in to the yards per attempt number since a faster more physical WR will get further down the field.

I think Potts will get 5000 not so much due to his arm, but because of the improved running game.

Just in case you guys forgot, the BCS still sucks.

VIVA LA FIGA!

by bmaxw on Mar 24, 2009 10:12 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

You have been...

a member of Al Queda for how long?

Just kidding,

VIVA LA FIGA!

by bmaxw on Mar 25, 2009 8:57 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

hahahaha

I liked that one.

by techtom4 on Mar 25, 2009 11:05 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

I see

I see Potts opening plenty of eyes.Not taking anything away from Harrell-Crabtree,but look at the recivers that are still there.And Potts did not arrive on a greyhound bus 24 hours ago.He has had plenty of time to learn.Any Leach QB to date has been READY.They step in and just DO THEIR JOB.

In my opinion the defense is what I am high on in 09.With what Ruffin showed this year,I think he will know what adjustments to make in games like OU.I just hope the offensive line that needs to be shored up will gell esp. in spring practice.Eveyone expects us to step back from 08…“AINT HAPPENNIN”. I think we will be just as compeptitive.And you all know how I seel about Texas the third game.That is when POTTS will grow big time.With a win…..in Austin.

This my be petty but an open note to Potts. Cut your hair and shave the beard please.Just looks dirty to me. And does not fit the QB status…..JUST MY OPINION GUYS JUST MY OPINION…..

by slycanyon on Mar 24, 2009 10:21 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Heck No!!!!!!!!!

Keep the beard, way cooler than tattoos.
No other QB in the Big 12 is even shaving yet.
Colt and Sam can play the sweet momma boy who ushers in church on Sunday all they want.
We got ruff tuff bite your head off spit down the hole; I grew up playing the hell out of Odessa and Midland;
and if you don’t like my looks get the heck out of my house TAYLOR POTTS!!!!

He is in Lubbock every thing is dirty.

VIVA LA FIGA!

by bmaxw on Mar 25, 2009 9:42 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Is there another team like this?

What stands out to me on these stats is their consistency. They are consistently way above average for D1. One has to ask the question, how long can this go on? Until Leach is no longer the coach at Tech? Until the wheels fall off? Clearly, the system works and barring major rules changes, will continue to work.

It seems to me, that the system works so well that it a sort of equalizing factor in terms of QB performance. Cody Hodges had loads of heart, but not loads of physical talent. Yet his numbers are not that far off from the others. BJ and Graham seemed to me to have the most talent of this group, but their numbers are similar to the rest. I have never been a proponent of the system quarterback philosophy, but the truth of what is going on is in these numbers somewhere.

What I’m trying to say is that we should be encouraged by how similar the stats are. The system will, in fact, cover up some flaws in a rookie qb’s game. By the same token, even a QB playing at the top level of the league will not double or triple the stats of his predecessor unless something else is added to the mix.

by garodgers on Mar 24, 2009 11:20 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Magic Dust

As was stated in the 60 Minutes interview, Leach sprinkles magic dust on his QBs.

by RR77 on Mar 24, 2009 11:54 PM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Symons/Potts

Was a great QB. Leach stole him from OU when he came to Tech. I honestly don’t understand why he didn’t get more than one year at the helm. The Air Raid offense is about spreading the field and creating space. While you don’t have to have a QB with a great arm to do that, a QB with a stronger arm certainly helps because you can stretch things vertically as well as horizontally. Symons gave Tech that capability. The other thing about 2003 was that, because the field was stretched more, Symons made a lot of plays with his feet when the play would start to break down (until he blew out his knee and started playing in a brace). Again, I think this is a product of creating more space by having a more vertical attack.

WIth Pott’s arm strength and Batch/Jeffers in the back field, the run is going to be more successful because the field will be spread more. The RB safety valve could be very effective as well. My biggest concern is red zone offense. If I recall correctly, that was one area Tech struggled with Symons at QB. Hopefully, with Batch and Jeffers, along with some overall improvements in run blocking on the line, we’ll have more than one option (the corner fade) when we’re standing on the goal line.

by NM99 on Mar 25, 2009 7:17 AM CDT reply actions   0 recs

Symons didn’t get another year because Kliff Kingsburry was the 3-year incumbent. That’s the “downside” to recruiting 1 QB every year: If every qb you recruit turns out to be a starter, you never wind up with a multi-year player.

by kayakyakr on Mar 25, 2009 8:29 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

IMO, Symons was a better QB than Kingsbury. That was my point. I see a lot of commonalities between the Kingsbury-Symons transition and the Harrell-Potts transition. I don’t know for sure that Potts is that guy, but he has the potential.

by NM99 on Mar 26, 2009 6:58 AM CDT up reply actions   0 recs

Leach says

Potts has the strongest arm of any QB that he has coached at Tech. Anyone remember the late night ESPN televised game with the Aggies, where Symons was throwing frozen ropes. It was amazing watching Symons thow the deep outs and how Symons and Tech were marching down the field to score. This was the first game that I heard the crowd around me shout “1st down” in unison with the ref’s signal. If Potts has a stronger arm than Symons and if Batch and Jeffers are productive runners, our offense could dominate the teams we play. I really believe that it could happen. Tech’s offense in the hands of a “seasoned” 1st year QB has been very productive. I think the overall talent level of Tech on both offense and defense is better than when Symons played. Tech has a chance to be very competitive this year and win the big XII. Wreck’em Tech!

by faunchin on Mar 25, 2009 1:56 PM CDT reply actions   0 recs

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