Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: Texas Longhorns Edition
by Seth C on Sep 16, 2009 12:00 PM CDT
in Texas Tech Football
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This weekly feature considers five reasons why Texas Tech will win and five reasons Texas Tech will lose to each opponent. Check back tomorrow for "Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win // Texas Longhorns Edition".
Reason # :: The Power of McCoy: How could I not lead off with the myth and legend of Colt McCoy. And to be honest, it's completely deserved, especially for what he did in 2008, which still astonishes me on some level. McCoy almost averaged 9 yards an attempt (actually 8.9) which is off the charts impressive and then he went ahead and lead the Longhorns in rushing. The only blemish last year wasn't necessarily McCoy's fault. The entire offense wasn't holding up, from the line on down. But I just can't accept the fact that McCoy and the Longhorns aren't still bothered by what happened on November 1, 2008. I don't think that McCoy needs to prove anything, but I think he wants to prove something on Saturday. This is statement game for the Longhorns as the next two are UTEP and Colorado. Texas needs to win decisively, I think, to have that strength of schedule that plagued them last year.
Reason #2 :: Muschamp Really Wants It: I've talked above how McCoy wants it, but if I had to wager who wants it more, it's Will Muschamp. Much of what's been written about the Longhorns thus far is that Muschamp has been holding back a bit the first two games. Somewhat of a vanilla defense and there's the thought that Muschamp will release the hounds on Saturday night. I don't think that Muschamp should or does feel responsible for last year's loss any more than McCoy or Mack Brown or any other player, but Muschamp seems like the sort of guy that feeds off of this sort of thing in that he wants this game and I get the feeling that he's going to relay that message to his defense quite clearly right before kickoff. Muschamp doesn't want to see 474 yards through the air and 105 on the ground in 2009.
Reason #3 :: Unreliable Running Game: I could not have been more disappointed in the fact that the Texas Tech running game still didn't get on track against Rice. Only 14 carries on 52 yards isn't going to cut it. I'm not a Beyond the Box Score mathemetician and tell you that the lack of effecient running is going to be the downfall of this offense, but if something doesn't change this week, it very well could be. Think back to last year where the offense averaging over 117 yards a game. 2009 is no where near that sort of production with only 46 yards on the ground a game against North Dakota and the second game to Rice who gave up 300 yards last week against UAB. Even if you take the small sample size of the first two games of 2008, you still have 20 and 23 carries during those first two games while 2009 you have 14 and 13. That's not going to cut it.
Reason #4 :: Defensive End Depth: This goes both ways in that the Red Raiders don't have enough of it if Rajon Henley doesn't play, while the Longhorns have plenty of it behind the relatively quiet Sergio Kindle and Sam Acho, who has really led the defense thus far. Henley was injured early in the first half of last week's game and my hope is that it's superficial, that the staff decided to keep Henley off the field against Rice and save him for Texas. That's my hope. I've mentioned this week that Ryan Haliburton played quite a bit in Henley's absence and he's a much better player than I give him credit. DE's Daniel Howard and Brandon Sharpe are workhorses and are the kind of players you like because they absolutely refuse to quit, but depth is a huge concern.
Reason #5 :: A Huge Game, on the Road: Road games are tough. First big road games against a quality opponent with an offense that's so dependent on a quarterback can be rough. Go back to 2006 where the Red Raiders were able to get through SMU and UTEP without a loss and then traveled to TCU who just whipped Texas Tech 3-12. Or how about the first relatively big road game of 2007 where the Red Raiders had to face off against Oklahoma St. and lost a heart-breaker in Stillwater. Both games were the third game of the season and whether it was the offense or the defense, one unit wasn't prepared. Taylor Potts is going to be tested, as is the rest of this team and perhaps more will speak to this 2009 team and the ability to bounce back, like Graham Harrell seemingly did all of 2008.
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Good points Seth
Unfortunately you could have posted a different version of this article with 5 new reasons every day this week and made good points on every one of them. I have all the faith in the world in our team and coaches, but everyone knows this is an uphill battle. I think these five reasons are very appropriate and vary from the other ~150 articles I’ve read about the game this week which is also a plus.
Good write up Seth… looking forward to the 5 reasons we win tomorrow though :)
My bet is its close like the 03 Austin game..but we win of course
Reason # 1 :: The Power of McCoy
Certified Raider Killer, Sooner thumper and Aggies throttler well not so much 1 out of 3? Right?. A major reason we get the "W" in 08 was hitting, pressuring and open field tackling by the entire Raider defense. B. Williams, M Williams and Whitlock all got a hand or face mask on colt. This alone made for a fun event. As stated in other forums I am not belittling his arm strength but just can’t help but feel we will see a lot short throws. Defensively we need to be prepared to be nickeled and dimed to death with short accurate passes. Kind of funny to have our own M.O. flung back at us.
Reason #2 :: Muschamp Really Wants It:
Yes indeed. Defensively the guy is volcano. Second repeat of the earlier post. They are holding back because Mack the schemer wants some level of surprise. If Texas had gotten down by 2 TD’s against Wyoming, we would have seen the Sergio gone wild stunt scheme. Now we will see it in Memorial Stadium on Saturday. BTW Coach Moore will have a couple of extra drills for the O line to spring on Mr. Sergio as well. We might just win this one with Mr.Olson, Mr. McDaniel or Mr.Winn.
Reason #3 :: Unreliable Running Game: Reverse the argument on Mack holding back on showing his hand. It would appear that Leach Riley and Simmons have been forcing (read coaching up ) Potts into throwing many more than required game time passes to get more reps under his belt. Thereby starving the Tech RB’s of touches. Sorry for the over simplistic view. I am not a coach. I expect to see the correct and proper 20 plus touches by running backs in this one.
Reason #4 :: Defensive End Depth: I feel pretty good about this just because Coach Sadler has been to a few rodeos. He has most likely accounted for the worst case hurry up offensive scheme by the horns to wear out the D Linemen. So yeah a lot D line men will play. I would love to see 3 or 4 sacks racked up against a nicked up Texas o line.(smile)
Reason #5 :: A Huge Game, on the Road:
The Raiders could vent their bowls, but I don’t think so. Lots of big stages to play on and quite frankly they seem to be getting better at dealing with the hostile venues. See Kyle field. Oops Norman darn it ! . okay so it’s dicey. The lateness of the contest should allow plenty of inebriated horn fans to visit the toilets, puke on their girl friends and get seriously rowdy. Unpleasant but not unexpected. Remember Raiderville was pretty lubricated by 0830pm on 01 Nov 09.
5.a We got a great Special teams play in 08 i.e. J Wall 38 yard KO return, we will double that in 09.
"do routine things routinely"
darn spell check
it should read “bowels” not bowls. Just can’t spell (:
"do routine things routinely"
by centexraider on Sep 16, 2009 2:09 PM CDT up reply actions
second error
.. Raiderville on …01 Nov 09 should read .. Nov 08. :(
"do routine things routinely"
by centexraider on Sep 16, 2009 2:24 PM CDT up reply actions
The only thing close to showing up for a big game on the road I’ve seen this team do is KU last year. Magnify this game a few times and that’s where we stand. I’m a homer, but I pray we just don’t get embarrased. I saw a pretty good OU team take all they could handle from Baylor in Norman a few years ago, so we have a decent chance if all goes right, but my stomach will be in knots for the next 80 hours.
You and me both!!
I really believe our running game will be spot on. I don’t think we’ve been holding it back, but I think Batch and Jeffers are going to destroy the UT defense.
" Answers -- Become Resources."
Without Questions; There are limited Resources...
I think more than anything the difference is that this game is in Austin. I really hope we win, and I think this Texas Tech team is capable of winning, but taking history into account, it would be a surprise.
I don’t think Texas is significantly better than we are, but I think the atmosphere and the fact that this is Potts first road start spell trouble. I’d feel better if we’d played a lesser away opponent first — I’m worried that Potts is going to slip back into the nervous habits he showed during the UND game (at least for the first half) and his mechanics are going to get all screwed up.
Check down, check down, check down.....
That’s the mantra for the first few series if ut tries to turn up the heat early. I don’t think ut db’s run to the short balls nearly as well as ou does and that is is the difference. Also, run behind Carter & Winn and then when ut tries more “stuff” fling it down the field. I understand Potts isn’t perfect just yet but his arm strength will get it in coverages that all other Tech Qb’s(maybe Symons some) have not been able too. So some how we win this thing!!!!!!! Wreck’em Tech
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