Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Lose :: Houston Cougars Edition
by Seth C on Sep 23, 2009 12:00 PM CDT
in Texas Tech Football
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PrintThis weekly feature considers five reasons why Texas Tech will win and five reasons Texas Tech will lose to each opponent. Check back tomorrow for "Five Reasons Texas Tech Will Win :: Houston Cougars Edition".
Reason #1 :: A Patient Offense Can Beat a Bend But Don't Break Defense: This reason alone probably worries me the most. Thus far, Ruffin McNeill's defense has been very good with pressure from typically just four players, plenty of stunting, solid tackling and the safeties playing not to get beat deep. That's the thing about Houston, is that the short passing game is their thing and a veteran quarterback will be patient until the defense makes a mistake. And that's not to say that the Cougars do not have players that can't go deep, because they can, but Mike Leach mentioned that Houston QB Case Keenum runs the offense very well, and when he says that, I think that means that Keenum gets the ball all over the field and he takes advantage of what the defense gives him. Add Keenum's arm, decent wheels to scramble out of the pocket, and a good running game and there's the recipe for disaster.
Reason #2 :: Better Than Advertised Pass Defense: So I mentioned yesterday that the pass defense isn't anything to write home about because Houston hasn't played a passing offense with only 2 games on the ledger. I still shouldn't take anything from the Cougars, who were able to hold Dez Bryant to only 85 yards on 5 catches. They went for some yardage, but Bryant wasn't getting the ball on a consistent basis. The other interesting thing is that of the 18 completions during the Oklahoma St. game 6 of them went to running backs, which means that Zac Robinson refused to look down the field, or Houston did a good job of making sure that OSU didn't let Bryant beat them by himself, and they weren't going to get beat deep.
Reason #3 :: Skillful Skill Positions: Sophomore RB Bryce Beall was outstanding as a freshman, rushing for 1,272 yards and 13 TD's) and he's been pretty good this year with 136 yards and 2 TD's. But the talent out of the Houston backfield doesn't stop there as Charles Sims, another freshman, is a multi-purpose threat, who has 36 yards on 12 carries, but had 128 yards on 6 catches against Northwestern St. and 5 catches for 46 yards against OSU. And then Houston has Tyron Carrier, who just dominated OSU with 7 catches for 111 yards. There's a ton of talent at the skill positions for Houston and just like Texas Tech, Houston finds a way to get these guys the ball in open space.
Reason #4 :: Depleted Defense: The Red Raiders did yeoman's work against Texas, but I'm concerned about the ability of the defense to keep this sort of pace. It seemed as if this unit was tired at the end of the game, despite the offense going on long, sustained drives to give the defense time to rest. Still, the defense was a few men short, and I think in the long run, the team will be better for it as players step up and show they are capable of filling positions. However, if DE Rajon Henley (not at practice), DE Ryan Haliburton (was back at practice), DE Brandon Sharpe (was back at practice) and SS Franklin Mitchem (not at practice) can't play for a second week, you could see a tired defense by the end of the game, especially if Houston stays on the pace they did against OSU, which was 82 freaking plays. Depth could be a huge concern going forward.
Reason #5 :: Converting Third Downs: It's only been 3 games, but thus far at home, the Red Raiders are converting 52% of their third downs, while n the road (yes, it's just 1 game) only converted 23% of their 3rd downs. It's a really small sample size, but Taylor Potts and his compliment of receivers have to do a better job of converting on the road. Getting it done only 3 of 13 times is worrisome, and there's the thought that Texas Tech really has 4 downs to get it done, but putting your offense in a tough position, potentially putting your defense in another tough position depending on field position, is something I'd like to avoid on the road.
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I agree with you somewhat on UH holding bryant to 5 catches while double teaming him, but I think our overall talent level at WR is better than OSU. Potts just needs to spread the wealth and make UH concentrate on all WRs. This will insure that most guys are man covered or can slip into a hole in the zone.
If they score quickly, I hope they do it fast coz our offense needs to have the ball back. Otherwise it’ll be Nebraska 2008 all over again.
They’ve had a bye week and hence more time to study us.
# of Dez Bryant's catches
I think last year against Tech Bryant had that overwhelming total of 1 catch! We are way more than one receiver and that is what will cause them D problems. Also, remember our D sees this O everyday in practice. The problem for us is when our scout team has to simulate other O that we don’t run, in fact that is uh’s problem cause they only have 3 really good receivers Tech has @ least 6-8, big problem for them. I do hope we get our run game blocking worked out cause that will help a ton! Wreck’em Tech
I read Tim Griffin
Tim Griffin said this: Texas Tech “can’t afford to wallow in the disappointment” of losing to UT “with a tough game looming at underrated Houston.” WHAT! He calls UH UNDERRATED! Just what is Texas Tech! Talk about fodder for the team. Tech simply needs to tear UH up: hold them to less than 20 points, score more than 45 points. Only then will anyone, especially those ESPN talking heads, start noticing Tech is a really good team, capable of defeating many other ranked teams. Personally, I am so sick and tired of Tech having to prove themselves over and over each and every year to the football “gods” in order to receive a decent ranking. Can they not see that this program has risen to the upper echelon of football powers, improving steadily over the last several years in so very many ways? That’s OK. You don’t need to answer that. I know the answer. It is a resounding “NO”. Even if they do recognize it, they are so against Tech entering into their perceived “elite” teams, that they will knowingly ignore anything Tech does as long as possible. This year’s team deserved preseason consideration as a top 20 to 25 team and got zip. Well, I feel this team that is supposed to be rebuilding is going to surprise a bunch of talking heads, so much so that they are going to HAVE to recognize them starting next week. Time to “GET YOUR GUNS UP, TECH”
TTpilk
I always feel like intelligence has been somehow sucked out of my head any time I read something that Tim Griffin writes.
Not sure
Houston v OSU is not a game to be focusing on though it is a signature game for a CUSA team to beat a Big 12 team.
Why? OSU simply is an extremely overrated team who will finish 4or 6th in the conference if not lower again!
Secondly, OSU is a primary running team. The 18 completed passes is a symptom of why OSU is severely overrated. But then OSU burned Houston running. The problem is that OSU only has one weapon for the most part in the passing game. Bryant. The others are horrible and the running backs had to take up the slack.
Houston WRs were just faster than the OSU secondary and it was that darn obvious!
QB for Houston reminds me of Zebbie Lethridge for those who are old enough to remember and the numbers are simular as well.
Houston has not face a lights out offense in passing. OSU is not the team to compare to Tech with at all or remotely. Yes Bryant is a very good receiver. But that is all OSU has right now. Thus its pretty impressive that he caught 5 for 85 given how little they threw 18/31 for 240 1 TD. That is not all that bad in the overall scheme of things when you see the 194 rushing yards. Simply, Houston is like Tech in that they got more yards and TDs while OSU is banging it out on the ground. Its one of the reason why Tech beat OSU last year as it was the same kind of performance that OSU puts in year in and year out. Teams that can not stop the run and can not get TDs get beat by OSU.
Houston has basically two main threats. Beall and Edwards. Stuff the run and Houston has to put everything on the shoulders of Edwards who is the main goto guy that Keenum uses when they absolutely need yards. More or less Houston’s idea of a Crabtree this season.
Tech has to run against Houston while at the same time pass like we normally do. The run is there for a 200 yard day. The pass is there for a 600 plus yard day. Thus Tech has to play its game and not Houston’s game.
Keys are offense:
Rush about 25 to 30 times.
Pass for about 35 to 45 times.
Not allow special teams free points for Houston.
Defense: Stuff the run!
Take Edwards out of the game.
Put Keenum on the turf every chance we get.
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