The Pirate Captain, The Riverboat Gambler, and the Correctable Loss
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 15, 2010 3:33 PM CST
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Ive taken the liberty of what, in MY mind, exactly what it is we expect from our new Coach.
For years we've been grinding our teeth with our beloved Captain at the helm and bearing it because we'll take the occasional bad loss in exchange for national rankings (not top 10), leading the nation in passing, and all around national attention. The hope here at Double T Nation had always been that we could get over the hump with the Captain still at the wheel.
But alas that was not the hand we were dealt. Pun intended.
If we have gone to the drastic point of changing captains mid voyage then we have to know exactly what it is we expect from Coach Tuberville.
First let me define what the correctable losses are by dividing them into THREE categories:
1. The Bad Loss. The run of the mill, everything goes wrong, you had no business losing to those guys loss.
2. The Defensive Loss. This is the typical, "Texas Tech never wins THOSE games" loss. The game is either a nip and tuck low scoring affair like the 2005 Cotton Bowl which we lost 13-10 to Bama. I did not go that far back in my analysis. This could also be the high scoring affair which we could have won if it weren't for ONE stop we couldn't get. The UT track meet in 2007 where the two teams were like Rocky and Apollo sluggin with one hand and hanging on to the ropes with the other.
3. The Bad Coaching decisions Loss. This is the worst one of the bunch. The other two types of losses are almost taken as givens but THIS type of loss is the most egregious and makes everyone grind their teeth into a fine dust.
Ive analyzed to the best of my recollection all the losses from the last FOUR seasons and applied a what if scenario. What if one of those three types of losses had not happened to us? This is what we expect from our football program when our Athletic Director and Administration (such as they are) take such a DRASTIC step as to dismiss our head coach.
| 2009 | Opponent | Record | Conf Record | Bad Loss | Defensive Loss | Bad Coaching Decisions Loss |
| September 5 | North Dakota | W 38-13 | 1-0 (0-0) | |||
| September 12 | Rice | W 55-10 | 2-0 (0-0) | |||
| September 19 | at No. 2 Texas | L 34-24 | 2-1 (0-1) | |||
| September 26 | at No. 17 Houston | L 29-28 | 2-2 (0-1) | X | ||
| October 3 | New Mexico | W 48-28 | 3-2 (0-1) | |||
| October 10 | Kansas State | W 66-14 | 4-2 (1-1) | |||
| October 17 | at No. 15 Nebraska | W 31-10 | 5-2 (2-1) | |||
| October 24 | Texas A&M | L 52-30 | 5-3 (2-2) | X | ||
| October 31 | Kansas | W 42-21 | 6-3 (3-2) | |||
| November 14 | at No. 19 Oklahoma State | L 24-17 | 6-4 (3-3) | X | ||
| November 21 | Oklahoma | W 41-13 | 7-4 (4-3) | |||
| November 28 | vs. Baylor* | W 20-13 | 8-4 (5-3) | |||
| January 2 | vs. Michigan State* | W 41-31 | 9-4 (5-3) | |||
| Corrected Record | 12-1 (7-1) | |||||
| 2008 | ||||||
| August 30 | Eastern Washington | W 49-24 | 1-0 (0-0) | |||
| September 6 | at Nevada | W 35-19 | 2-0 (0-0) | |||
| September 13 | Southern Methodist | W 43-7 | 3-0 (0-0) | |||
| September 20 | Massachusetts | W 56-14 | 4-0 (0-0) | |||
| October 4 | at Kansas State | W 58-28 | 5-0 (1-0) | |||
| October 11 | Nebraska | W 37-31 | 6-0 (2-0) | |||
| October 18 | at Texas A&M | W 43-25 | 7-0 (3-0) | |||
| October 25 | at No. 23 Kansas | W 63-21 | 8-0 (4-0) | |||
| November 1 | No. 1 Texas | W 39-33 | 9-0 (5-0) | |||
| November 8 | No. 9 Oklahoma State | W 56-20 | 10-0 (6-0) | |||
| November 22 | at No. 5 Oklahoma | L 65-21 | 10-1 (6-1) | X | ||
| November 29 | Baylor | W 35-28 | 11-1 (7-1) | |||
| January 2 | vs. No. 25 Mississippi* | L 47-34 | 11-2 (7-1) | X | ||
| Corrected Record | Undefeated & National Champions | |||||
| 2007 | ||||||
| September 3 | at Southern Methodist | W 49-9 | 1-0 (0-0) | |||
| September 8 | UTEP | W 45-31 | 2-0 (0-0) | |||
| September 15 | at Rice | W 59-24 | 3-0 (0-0) | |||
| September 22 | at Oklahoma State | L 49-45 | 3-1 (0-1) | |||
| September 29 | Northwestern State | W 75-7 | 4-1 (0-1) | |||
| October 6 | Iowa State | W 42-17 | 5-1 (1-1) | |||
| October 13 | Texas A&M | W 35-7 | 6-1 (2-1) | |||
| October 20 | at Missouri | L 41-10 | 6-2 (2-2) | X | ||
| October 27 | Colorado | L 31-26 | 6-3 (2-3) | X | ||
| November 3 | at Baylor | W 38-7 | 7-3 (3-3) | |||
| November 10 | at Texas | L 59-43 | 7-4 (3-4) | X | ||
| November 17 | Oklahoma | W 34-27 | 8-4 (4-4) | |||
| January 1 | vs. Virginia | W 31-28 | 9-4 (4-4) | |||
| Corrected Record | 12-1 (7-1) | |||||
| 2006 | ||||||
| September 2 | Southern Methodist | W 35-3 | 1-0 (0-0) | |||
| September 9 | at UTEP | W 38-35 | 2-0 (0-0) | |||
| September 16 | at TCU | L 12-3 | 2-1 (0-0) | |||
| September 23 | Southeastern Louisiana | W 62-0 | 3-1 (0-0) | |||
| September 30 | at Texas A&M | W 31-27 | 4-1 (1-0) | |||
| October 7 | Missouri | L 38-21 | 4-2 (1-1) | X | ||
| October 14 | at Colorado | L 30-6 | 4-3 (1-2) | X | ||
| October 21 | at Iowa State | W 42-26 | 5-3 (2-2) | |||
| October 28 | Texas | L 35-31 | 5-4 (2-3) | X | ||
| November 4 | Baylor | W 55-21 | 6-4 (3-3) | |||
| November 11 | at Oklahoma | L 34-24 | 6-5 (3-4) | |||
| November 18 | Oklahoma State | W 30-24 | 7-5 (4-4) | |||
| December 29 | vs. Minnesota | W 44-41 | 8-5 (4-4) | |||
| Corrected Record | 11-2 (7-1) | |||||
So that's it. This is what we expect from our new coach. Excellence. He certainly exudes professionalism, class, charisma, and a winning attitude. I believe that a team fully under the control of a guy like Coach Tuberville could have attained these kind of results.
Authors Notes
#1. I considered taking into account the inverse version of wins. Such as a defensive win such as the victory over Nebraska this year. But I figured most of will fall into the "a win is a win" camp so I decided against it.
#2. There are not many losses left on the board that can't be explained away under one of my three types of correctable losses. Example: The loss to TCU was not a defensive lapse loss simply because it was a revenge game for them and there was no way we were winning that game. The infamous "I'm a man, I'm 40" game I did not put into a category because Crabtree had the winning touchdown in his hands. Tough loss to be sure but it doesn't count as a bad loss even though Defensive Coordinator Lyle Senentich did lose his job over it. Besides, if you get too carried away classifying all the losses we end up winning the National Championship every year. Not likely. ;)
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Double-T Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Double-T Nation's writers or editors.
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When ut cheats.....
what kind of loss is that?
"There's going to be ups and downs but you have to enjoy the battle." Mike Leach
UT cheating is a given
and already taken into account as “business as usual” See 2008.
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 15, 2010 3:56 PM CST up reply actions
It isn't cheating when you bag the ref
"I’ve established a reputation for integrity. I have maintained those high standards" - Craig James
Nice!
Still dont see how anyone (UT fan or not) in their right minds could say that wasnt helmet to helmet….
Who you gonna believe?
Them or your lying eyes.
"I’ve established a reputation for integrity. I have maintained those high standards" - Craig James
I kid you not
A whorn fan friend of mine was riding with me over break, and that song “Rose Colored Glasses” came on. He brought up this play and told me that I was only so pissed about it because I wear red and black glasses…..Good one.
by “School of Fish”?
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 18, 2010 3:26 PM CST up reply actions
thats even older than the School of Fish tune I was thinkin bout.
circa 1991 psychedelic nouveau hippy rock band
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 18, 2010 3:42 PM CST up reply actions
Missouri is a "you had no business losing to those guys loss"?
They were top 10 both those years. We were supposed to lose those games. I wanted to win them but wasn’t surprised that we didn’t.
Remember,
I said to the best of my recollection…
But youre missing the big picture.
One or two additional losses here or there dont add up to more than one additional loss every other year, there about. Id STILL take that.
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 15, 2010 4:09 PM CST up reply actions
Besides,
we score 40+ point all season and 10 against Mizzou in 2007? Unacceptable.
the previous year’s loss to mizzou was the Graham Harrell 4-5 turnover game in which he got benched in the first half.
…just sayin ;)
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 15, 2010 4:12 PM CST up reply actions
Nice analysis
Really like this line of thinking. However, I’m not sure I would exclude the OSU game from being a defensive loss. Remember, we had a billion yards and scored 45 points.
True Crabs had the ball in his hands, but based on your definition of “if not for ONE stop we couldn’t make”.
But I see your point. If my aunt had a pair she’d be my uncle. You could rationalize every loss, but to your point it is better to focus on specific losses.
IMWTx
just saying I think that specific OSU game would qualify as a Defensive Loss
IMWTx
by imisswesttexas on Jan 15, 2010 4:17 PM CST up reply actions
I realize what youre saying
but like i said in my piece, if you start carpet bombing the record with too much analysis we win the National Championship every year. Basically my rationale was, “if youre willing to take a last second victory like the UT win last year you gotta take a similar loss”
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 15, 2010 4:21 PM CST up reply actions
I Love Tech - but I'm a realist.
Considering our inherent disadvantages, I’d suggest that we should examine those same schedules from the opponents perspective.
2006 Win at A&M – Luuuucky! (bad ass – but Lucky)
2007 Win vs OK – how many calls could we possibly get on that last drive. (I’ll take it)
2008 vs Nebraska – Hello.
and the 2 bowl comebacks?
We’ve been good lately for sure, but we’ve also had a lot of luck too.
Last Season
had a LOT of magic to be sure. Thats why I took the OSU loss of 2007 as just another loss. You gotta be willing to be on EITHER side of the magic.
For every win we coulda moved to the loss column there is another loss that we coulda moved to the win column. See imisswesttexas’ post above.
Look at the big picture and my point is valid.
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 15, 2010 4:25 PM CST up reply actions
Some people don’t believe in luck. The Captain ran a bad A ship for sure. Sometimes the mast cracked in half and we landed on the rocks, and sometimes we pillaged like there was no tomorrow. But hell, it was fun. And damn I am going to miss talking like a pirate.
I suppose we can all acquire fake Southern accents and pretend we are from Mississippi now. “I do believe we have a football game here sonny.”
Meh…
damn I am going to miss talking like a pirate.
I do believe youve encapsulated everyone here’s emotions my brother in Red & Black
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 18, 2010 10:20 AM CST up reply actions
Another question should be: What games would we NOT have won had Leach not been at the helm?
Thoughts/analysis on this?
Do I have to do everything myseld ;)
You analyze it.
Sounds like the makings of another FanPost to me
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 15, 2010 4:39 PM CST up reply actions
Tortilla Pirate thx for ur analysis. I really liked it
Just putting some more out thr for thought to get other opinions not neccessarily to put more analysis on you dude. Honestly I learn much more on this sight than I am capable of contributing : )
by Raiderit on Jan 15, 2010 6:48 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Maybe this is what Raiderit meant
But I’ll rephrase. If the offense were to take a slight hit in productivity under the new regime, what close games did we win in a shootout fashion under Leach that we might not win under Tuberville/Brown?
For arguements sake, lets assume any game decided by 4 or fewer points.
2006 – Additional losses to UTEP, A&M and Minnesotta. Record unchanged.
2007 – Additional Loss to Virginia. Net increase of 2 wins.
2008 – I won’t quible too much, though I wonder if we would have been able to stage the last second scoring drive to beat Texas.
2009 – Baylor and Mich. State are the closest, Baylor decided by only 1 TD. I’ll accept these as still being W’s.
I see continuous improvement, much of which is attributable to the improvement in recruting, etc. If this trend continues, we should be in good shape.
The only thing
I dont agree with is RaiderIT’s looking back. What good does it do to look backwards and look to see what if the Pirate Captain wasnt here? That is the stuff better suited to contract negotiations. Old wounds, I know.
The most productive thing to do is to take the hand we were dealt and look to the future.
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 15, 2010 5:17 PM CST up reply actions
Understand ... But you/we do look back to see "the what if's"
What if Tuberville had coached the d etc… (in the past in those games we lost)
by Raiderit on Jan 15, 2010 6:52 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
I see continuous improvement, much of which is attributable to the improvement in recruting, etc. If this trend continues, we should be in good shape.
which is why all of us here would have liked to see Captain Leach take us to that level. However he had never done it before. Tubbs has. This is the bill of goods we’ve been sold and we want results
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 15, 2010 5:23 PM CST up reply actions
the flip side is that Coach T lost more games in his last season coaching than Leach did in his last two seasons.
We need to be fair to Coach T, if he loses a game much like many of us thought Leach lost the Houston game (many of us — not me) he shouldn’t get hammered for it. Mistakes happen in CFB, to every coach. Unless you’re undefeated every year, there’s room for improvement.
I see some people saying, 10 wins or bust on Coach T, and I know expectations are high but I hope we realistically evaluate him without setting seemingly arbitrary limits on what he needs to accomplish. I’ll be disappointed with 9 or less, but he deserves a chance to build the program. It took him a while to get Auburn to that 13-0 point. Basically I don’t want us to be Aggies with a new coach every 3 years.
Agreed
As much as I loved our Pirate Captain, The Riverboat Gambler has my complete support. I am NOT in the same camp as SkyBlade who romanticizes about us filling the underdog role for the rest of eternity with Leach as the embodiment of that.
I embrace the professionalism Tuberville brings, his defense, and his style. Its time our Program grew up.
Long Live the Riverboat Gambler!!!
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 15, 2010 5:38 PM CST up reply actions
I want results too
But I don’t see 9 wins …..more like 7.. Possibly 8… We have a new regime and these things take time. At least getting a year under the belt. Then hopefully we’ll improve one or 2 more in the win column each year
by Raiderit on Jan 15, 2010 6:59 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
thinking about this a little more
t would be good to quantify in terms of points, percentage,… something…the expected improvement in defense versus saying categorically we would have won game X with a Tuberville defense.
For example, in 2008, the loss to OU in Norman. OU was a 1 loss team, ranked #5 and we were playing them at home. Is it realistic to believe we could have held them to less than 20 points? This game, while a total blowout/defensive meltdown, would have likely been a loss. I could see us keeping it respectable…maybe 35 or 38. But we would also need much more offensive production.
Similarly, the 24 point loss to CU in 2006, 31 point loss to Mizzou in 2007, Even the 22 point loss to A&M this year. Those are significant point swings. I’m not sure I can rationalize more than a 50% reduction in the opposition’s point total, which is very optimistic, and makes all of the a loss, except the 2009 A&M game (which would be very close if we take into account an estimated 4 point loss in Tech offensive production).
True
BUT
Like I said, we can analyze till the cows comehome and in the end we can probably move as many Ws to the L column as Ls we´ve moved to the W column.
If in the end, a bad loss (OU in 2008, or A&M uin 2009) turns into a regular loss then I have no problem with that. That is the point of my analysis. Expectations. I dont expect us to win EVERY game but given my analysis WE should EXPECT to eliminate such losses.
Also taken into account in my analysis is the expectation that offensive production will not change. Its what we´ve been promised and we expect results
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 16, 2010 3:15 PM CST up reply actions
Good stuff Tortilla Pirate.......
The bad loss has always haunted me…….but I had never considered the big picture, and what the potential was if we can eliminate even half of them.
Should not have lost to aggie. EVER!!
" Answers -- Become Resources."
Without Questions; There are limited Resources...
Yeah
Losing to aggies always makes my stomach turn.
Pirate for life...
by Damien Franco on Jan 16, 2010 9:05 AM CST up reply actions
I guess I don't understand...
I guess we’re saying…
- the coaching staff never makes a call that goes the wrong way in what turns out to be a critical point of a game (coaching loss)
- the defense never fails to stop the other team when the game is on the line (defensive loss)
- the team never fails to “show up” or to play up to their potential…. (bad loss)
Well yes, if those things never happen, then we’re going to have a pretty good record every year…
I guess I don’t understand how we can expect this is the way everything will happen from now on…?
I guess so
Tubs will be perfect! His record clearly shows he makes no coaching mistakes. /sarc
Pirate for life...
by Damien Franco on Jan 17, 2010 5:49 AM CST up reply actions
Cool....can't wait
" I crammed 4 years of Tech into 5"- me
by oldschoolraider on Jan 17, 2010 4:41 PM CST via mobile up reply actions
Was the omission of
the thought of an ‘offensive loss’ intentional or simply an act of omission ?
Sometimes a river boat can out run a pirate ship.
I think...
an offensive loss as you call it would fall under a “bad (you had no business losing to those guys) loss”
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 18, 2010 10:22 AM CST up reply actions
Great Post!!
My hats off to your analysis.
I would replace “bad loss” with “game preparation loss” and assume “Bad Coaching Decisions” means poor coaching decisions during the game or “Game Management”. I would definitely put this years A&M loss and last years Oklahoma loss as a coaching problem in getting the team up emotionally to play the game. All three sides played poorly.
"You know, doing what is right is easy. The problem is knowing what is right".
Exactly!!!
Im not saying eliminating these types of losses will automatically turn into W’s. I will gladly take a 9-3 record ( or 8-4 for that matter) if we have NONE of these types of losses.
Im just saying this is the package the Admin & Tubbs have sold us under tough circumstances and its what we expect.
IF (im talkin to you Damien) Tubbs makes “mistakes” then he will promptly get lit up on these boards like he deserves to be
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 18, 2010 10:08 AM CST up reply actions
You mean WHEN...right?
I mean. I’m not bashing Tubs. It’s just that…no one is perfect. Mistakes DO happen.
"Blind faith will lead you to the promised land...trust us." Texas Tech Administrators and Board of Regents (not a direct quote but it smells about right)
by Damien Franco on Jan 18, 2010 10:17 AM CST up reply actions
Yes
you could say that.
but eliminating the other types of losses is the key to acheiving perennial contender status
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 18, 2010 10:24 AM CST up reply actions
The record shows a number of blowout losses meaning the team didn’t show up. Bad games offensively, defensively, and special teams will occur, but all 3 at the same time? This year was schizophrenic (blow out loss to A&M, snatching defeat from the jaws of victory at Houston and OSU) but better than expected and ended well dispite the BS over Leach’s firing. Last year’s season after the OSU game (Tech’s best game offensively) and a #2 ranking ended in disappointment with two losses and a almost lost to Baylor. That slide is what I remembered – what happened?
Maintaining Leach’s Air Raid system will be difficult if not impossible, because Tubbs can’t replace Leach’s process (execution, simplicity, & rehearsal). I suspect Brown will maintain the Air Raid in slightly different manner (hope Brown doesn’t incorporate the meerkat look he had at Tory). However what Tubbs brings to the table is consistency. We will obviously have losses…I hope the days of blowout losses are over, although Tech’s brigand niche on the high seas of BCS contenders will be missed.
"We cannot continue to enjoy the result, if we neglect and abandon the cause."
Yes
you could say that.
but eliminating the other types of losses is the key to acheiving perennial contender status
The Lyle Leong Bandwagon will Continue to Roll!!!
Respect Everyone....Fear No One!
Wreck 'em, Tech!
by Tortilla Pirate on Jan 18, 2010 10:23 AM CST reply actions
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