The official Y/A, Y/C, and YAC thread
by battledome on Oct 5, 2010 9:57 AM CDT
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PrintIn an attempt to adequately address Seth's #3 question (from 5 Questions, Baylor Edition), I propose that we devote a thread to the discussion of our receiving corps and the changes that it has seen in the last year.
The team stats look like this:
2009 Passing Stats: QB Rating 143.76 Completion Pct. 67% Y/A 7.5
2010 Passing Stats (4 games): QB Rating 134.91 Completion Pct. 63% Y/A 6.3
2009 Receiving Stats: Y/C 11.22
2010 Receiving Stats (4 games): Y/C 9.95
What accounts for the drop in productivity? Theories after the jump.
Theory #1: Attrition
One theory that you could float out there is that the offense have experienced player attrition. A poorer OL might leave the QB with less time to make reads and get rid of the ball. Less talented WRs might not be able to get open, make catches, or run after the catch as well as previous units. A poorer QB would contribute obvious problems.
Analysis: The QB is the same guy as last year, and from 2010 to 2009 Potts' stats have only taken a marginal dip. On top of that, he's not throwing the picks that we are accustomed to seeing from him (remember ND State?). I've never liked this group of WR's... but it's basically the same as last year's group, as well. Britton is the only departure and he was our 7th leading WR - so his contribution was nominal.
That leaves the OL. It's hard for me to keep up with which OL is playing which position, but the attrition from last year's starters includes Hamby, Carter, and Winn. Hamby is replaceable. Winn didn't have a great year. I miss Brandon Carter from an image and morale standpoint alone... but can our lack of performance this year really be blamed on the RG alone?
Call me crazy, but I think when you return your offensive starters, your offense should get better, not worse. Remember that sorry MSU team that we whooped up on last year? Yeah... they're 5-0 and ranked in the Top 20.
Theory #2: Defensive Evolution
Quoth the HC:
We’re getting schemed pretty good (by opposing defenses). Everybody knows this offense. They’ve coached against these receivers. This offense is pretty much the same in the passing game of what everybody’s seen the last eight, nine years.
Analysis: Really, Coach? We're the #1 offense of the 2000's. No one has been able to stop us for a decade, but somehow... completely coincidentally... the lights just came on and everyone figured out how to scheme us this year... and it has nothing to do with the fact that we have a new coaching staff. Bullshit.
Theory #3: Play Design
Under Leach, the Air Raid functioned optimally when we had an accurate QB who was capable of hitting receivers in stride and finding holes in zone defenses, WR's who could run well after the catch, and extendable routes in most of the plays (slants, drags, posts, etc. as opposed to outs or curls).
In 2008, we saw the Air Raid at its best with an accurate Harrell, a great run-after-the-catch WR in Crabtree, and mesh routes out the wazoo - not to mention a screen game that was clicking on all cylinders.
Anecdotally, I'm hearing that NB has incorporated fewer extendable routes into his play design. Routes like curls require big, strong WR's to break tackles in order to pick up YAC. It doesn't seem like our WRs have the size to do that. Can anyone confirm this?
Much has been made about OL splits and the effect they have on the pass rush. I think it should be mentioned here, although I don't want to dwell on it.
Theory #4: The Terminator Theory
This theory is hinged on the idea that Craig James is a freedom fighter, sent from an alternate future to subvert Mike Leach. Left to his own devices, Leach would become the most popular public figure in the state. Ultimately, he would become governor and then President. As President, Leach would fund an artificial intelligence program called Skynet. Skynet would eventually become self aware and wipe out all of humanity in a bid for self-preservation.
So really... Craig James is our hero. If it weren't for him and his son, we might still have a passing game so powerful that it would put the very future of our planet in jeopardy.
I'm not saying this is really what happened. But it seems as plausible as anything else, doesn't it?
Discussion
- Potts' completion percentage is the same as last year. It's not Potts and it's not WRs dropping the ball.
- It's way too convenient to believe that Big XII defenses picked this year to figure out our scheme. It's not defensive evolution.
- Can it be that we miss Carter that much? Is it the shuffling of positions along the OL that's preventing Potts from having enough time?
- Has a coach that is committed to the run given up on the Hal Mumme practice strategy of throwing it on every offensive down during practice?
- Has the playcalling changed?
- Did it make that big of a difference to give the QB the ability to check into the run?
- Is our pace too fast?
- What do you think accounts for the drop in Y/A?
This is a FanPost and does not necessarily reflect the views of Double-T Nation's writers or editors. It does reflect the views of this particular fan though, which is as important as the views of Double-T Nation's writers or editors.
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IMHO
"
Has a coach that is committed to the run given up on the Hal Mumme practice strategy of throwing it on every offensive down during practice?
Has the playcalling changed?"
The run commitment and the play calling go hand in hand. I believe this is why we are struggling. It seemed to me that vs ISU once we started to stretch the field, we started scoring touchdowns (with 2 minutes left in the 2nd quarter). Prior to that it seems like we had lots of 1/2 downs running, then a 3rd and long.
Tubs must be under the impression BS Meters are hard to come by in Texas
Mine is pegging the max line whenever he opens his mouth about the offense he inherited. Theory 2 may be the most egregious crock of sh&t Tubs has tried to peddle to date, & he’s been peddling cow dung since the day he put on his Double T necktie & underwear. He’s laying the groundwork to abandon the spread offense. I can’t even imagine how easy it must be to BS the folks in Arkansas where he grew up or Alabama if he thinks anybody is buying his reasoning for the sudden failure of Air Raid.
No joke, KLBK
Said “they have guys flying at them like uh.. 150mph and some of them are over 300 lbs. It’s my job to put the ball in a place easy for them to catch it” and went on to say he hasn’t been doing such a good job of that, and that receivers are what make a QB look good. At least he shows some humility.
He's always shown humility.
I just wish he would so a steak of talent, for maybe 4 quarters. Is that too much to ask?
While watching the games, you can hear balls pop when they hit receivers hands, that is a little too hard. But then again, if they are popping that means he probably put the ball where it needed to be, just harder than normal. If a receiver is reaching behind himself for the ball, you won’t hear the pop.
" Answers --Become Resources."
Without Questions, There are limited Resources...
Damnit, *streak.
I’m obviously hungry.
" Answers --Become Resources."
Without Questions, There are limited Resources...
Fair enough...
but his completion percentage isn’t that different… it’s a little down, but not significantly. If we’re completing a pretty close percentage of passes, then we must be completing shorter passes or not getting as much YAC.
If he is only throwing 8 yard outs and
fade routes….I don’t care if his % as the same as a QB that will go through his progressions and hit the 3rd and 4th option sometimes. UT is a decent defense……SMEW, UNM and ISU aren’t.
"It's fun to do bad things"- Latarian
by oldschoolraider on Oct 7, 2010 3:23 PM CDT up reply actions
It seems to my naked eye.... with no real data to back it up...
that too many of our pass plays early in the set of downs are in the 3 to 5 yard range…
I’m pretty sure I’ve seen a few series where we passed for completion on 1st and 2nd down, but still wound up with 3rd and 2 or 3 yards for the first down… (a down/distance that is difficult for us to convert running, because we don’t run very well)
And these were called plays… the first read that was passed to quickly (not checkdowns or outlet passes under pressure)
This just seems different than what I’ve seen over the past several years… it seems that we used to gain 5 to 15 yards on any completion, not including yac…
It seemed like we used to only need 1 or 2 completions to convert a first down (and had 3 or 4 chances to do it)…
But now, we need to complete 2 or 3 to convert… so we get into more 3rd downs… if you add in an incompletion or drop, then you’re forced to punt…
I’ll disagree with the premise. We used to fume that we never went down the field when we had a strong armed QB. The spread isn’t designed to go deep. It’s designed to get the WRs the ball in space fairly close to the line of scrimmage. It’s then required to have great blocking downfield and a WR who can make the first guy miss. If you don’t make the CB miss, then it’s a 4-5 yard completion. So it’s not the play, to my eyes. It’s the lack of anything after the catch.
I hear ya...
but I keep coming back to a couple of points:
1) The players haven’t changed. They’re just as able to get open and make plays as last year… athletically speaking, that is.
2) The QB’s completion percentage is roughly the same as last year. So, if drops have gone up, that means the QB is actually hitting his targets more than in the past. So, I don’t think you can blame QB play or drops.
So do you think it’s the OL? Do you think it’s opposing defenses catching up to us – per Tubs?
I don’t discount at all the idea that defenses are figuring the spread out. Scoring is down across the board nationally, and most teams run a version of the spread. It’s not new anymore and if a defensive coordinator is smart and puts his players in the right position, it becomes more difficult to execute. So that could be a small part of it.
That said, outside of the Texas game we’ve put up fairly large numbers in the other three. If you look at the NCAA stats, you’ll find that while we are ranked fairly low by our standards in most categories. But if you look at the numbers on average outside of Texas (and I think it’s safe to say that was a once a decade anomaly), we are much closer to where we’d normally be. Don’t let one game’s impact on the stats totally skew your view of where we are.
I still think the bigger problems are the players getting used to this staff and the way they are asked to handle game situations. I realize some transitions have been smoother, but some have not. And some teams who are supposed to be sierra hotel are not doing well at all. Texas and Florida are prime examples. They are replacing key personnel, but we are replacing an entire coaching staff. I think replacing a QB and WR is a bit easier on the entire team than replacing every coach.
I'll disagree with you on premise... Or at least that you've stated a premise I don't hold...
When I stated we used to gain 5 to 15 yards on a pass, not including yac… that’s not throwing deep… While I used 15 yards as the upper end of that range, the vast majority were in the 5 to 10 range… (Although I do think we also found open gaps and threw in the 10 to 15 yard range as well… just less often…Note: I’m not talking about screens and shovel passes and the like…)
While yac and downfield blocking are important and I know our old coaching used to emphasize them, that’s what made the difference between a normal pass and catch and a big play… We used to have a lot of normal completions that had no yac or only 1 or 2 yards ac… but we almost never needed more than 2 completions in a set of downs to get a first down (unless there was a penalty) …
I’ve seen it happen a few times this year and it just strikes me as different…
Maybe it’s by design in order to take some pressure off of the O-line and QB, but it just don’t recall it happening under the previous offense…
by Houston Raider on Oct 7, 2010 2:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Air Raid....
was designed to make the defense defend the entire field. Usually the shorter passing set up the deeper passing.
"It's fun to do bad things"- Latarian
by oldschoolraider on Oct 7, 2010 3:30 PM CDT up reply actions
The spread isn’t designed to go deep.
I don’t agree.
/s/
BJ Symons
as for me and my house, we chose the Lord.
YDS per PLAY & SCORE per GAME
Seth’s Question #3: IS YARDS PER ATTEMPT INDICATIVE OF THE OFFENSE CHANGING? It could be just tweaking. Since the offense is made up of both the pass and run I think it would also be helpful to look at yards per play and score per game, especially looking at the delta between TT v. their opponents.
2007 YDS/PLAY 7.0 v. 4.9
2008 YDS/PLAY 7.1 v. 5.5
2009 YDS/PLAY 6.2 v. 4.8
2010 YDS/PLAY 4.8 v. 4.8 (1st 4 games)
2007 POINTS/GAME 41.8 v. 25.8
2008 POINTS/GAME 44.6 v. 26.2
2009 POINTS/GAME 37.0 v. 22.5
2010 POINTS/GAME 33.7 v. 22.7 (1st 4 games)
"I've specifically concentrated on not concentrating on this, and up to this point, I've done a really good job." -Mike Leach
tuberville has said a couple of times, they practice the run 50% of practice...However, we throw the ball during games 65-70% of the time.
My idea is the recievers are not getting the reps in, as they did before!
LOL ! that is it for sure !!
One would think that a reciever who cannot catch a football in a stadium full of fans would want to look better…even want to practice after practice…would wonder why could I catch a football last season but not this season ? And do something to improve catching the football.
as for me and my house, we chose the Lord.
I can't stop thinking if that tubs quote above....
It really really really pisses me off…..what am I missing?
"It's fun to do bad things"- Latarian
you sir, are missing Leach........insert "get over it" here
fact is Tubs does not get the premise behind AIR RAID. Its not a trick or a system. It is a way of life from film, practice, games. Deal with it or do without.
"As we continue to merely "talk about championships""
It is a "system" in the purest sense of the word...
that is to say, it’s a systematic approach to practicing, playing, conditioning, etc. It’s a top to bottom commitment to the pass. And you’re right, it’s something Tubs does not get.
It is not a gimmick offense – which is a nonsensical term if every there was one.
It just chickenshit to dis the offense of the last 8 or so years...
especially when you are 2-2 as the coach
"It's fun to do bad things"- Latarian
by oldschoolraider on Oct 7, 2010 6:22 PM CDT up reply actions
Tubs must read extra-large print books
Because it takes a mighty big page for me and you to fit on one.
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