Recruiting Rankings | Looking Back at the 2009 Class
by Seth C on Dec 20, 2010 9:00 AM CST
in Texas Tech Football
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PrintWe've tackled the 2007 and 2008 recruiting classes. I think the general consensus has been that there were some really rough spots in both of those classes. Some ups and downs, but as I looked back on both of those classes, there very few long-term difference-makers on defense in either of these classes, but I think the tide turned in the 2009 recruiting class. There was some serious talent in this class and I should remind everyone, that classes look a lot better the closer you are to them. In other words, the 2008 recruiting class may look really bad, but that's because there's been three years for players to leave the program or we have a more clear idea if a player is going to work out or not.
And this was a full class, as Leach signed the limit of 25 players. Obviously there were some players that didn't make it on campus, but a full class was signed and I get the feeling that the staff obviously saw the writing on the wall with the absolutely awful 2008 defensive class and signed 16 defensive players, including five players that were projected to be defensive backs and Mays, who actually converted late this year. Let's get to it.
2009 Recruiting Class
| # | Player | O/D/ST | Scout | Rivals | Rivals Rating | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D.J. Johnson | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 76.00 |
| 2 | Jarvis Phillips | D | 2.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 67.00 |
| 3 | Aundrey Barr | D | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5.30 | 40.00 |
| 4 | Terrance Bullitt | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.60 | 78.00 |
| 5 | Daniel Cobb | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.70 | 77.00 |
| 6 | Will Ford | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.70 | 77.00 |
| 7 | Kerry Hyder | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 77.00 |
| 8 | Christoper Knighton | D | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5.20 | 74.00 |
| 9 | Derrick Mays | D | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5.20 | 40.00 |
| 10 | Myles Wade | D | 3.00 | 4.00 | 5.80 | - |
| 11 | Dion Chidozie | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.60 | 73.00 |
| 12 | Romario Cathey | D | 2.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 74.00 |
| 13 | Brandon Mahoney | D | 4.00 | 3.00 | 5.70 | 80.00 |
| 14 | James Scott | D | 3.00 | 2.00 | 5.40 | 77.00 |
| 15 | Yashua Williams | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 77.00 |
| 16 | Pearlie Graves | D | 3.00 | 4.00 | 5.80 | 75.00 |
| 17 | Eric Stephens | O | 2.00 | 4.00 | 5.80 | 78.00 |
| 18 | LaAdrian Waddle | O | 2.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 79.00 |
| 19 | Aaron Fisher | O | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.70 | 77.00 |
| 20 | Joel Gray | O | 4.00 | 3.00 | 5.70 | 75.00 |
| 21 | Jacob Karam | O | 4.00 | 3.00 | 5.60 | 80.00 |
| 22 | Eric Ward | O | 4.00 | 4.00 | 5.80 | 79.00 |
| 23 | Kyle Clark | O | 3.00 | 4.00 | 5.80 | 79.00 |
| 24 | Ernest Celestie | O | 2.00 | 3.00 | 5.60 | 75.00 |
| 25 | Matt Goetz | O | 3.00 | 2.00 | 5.20 | 75.00 |
| AVERAGES | 2.84 | 3.00 | 5.57 | 70.36 |
This class graded out much better than the 2007 and 2008 class. There was only one JUCO player, which significantly helped the ESPN grade, which typically gives JUCO players a zero grade. As I think back at this class there were a handful of players that never made it on campus or didn't last for more than a year, including Romario Cathey, Brandon Mahoney, James Scott, Yashua Williams and Matt Goetz. Right now that's only five players, which is a pretty good rate. And to be fair, Mahoney, Williams and Goetz all made it onto campus but were let go while for a variety of reasons and Mahoney was let go this past summer.
Again, this is a pretty good rate and there are handful of players on both sides of the ball that are seeing significant time and that's a good thing. It would be idea for the 2007 and 2008 classes to be a big part of the 2011 team, but this is a good start.
More after the jump.
2009 Recruiting Class | Defense
| # | Player | O/D/ST | Scout | Rivals | Rivals Rating | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | D.J. Johnson | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 76.00 |
| 2 | Jarvis Phillips | D | 2.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 67.00 |
| 3 | Aundrey Barr | D | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5.30 | 40.00 |
| 4 | Terrance Bullitt | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.60 | 78.00 |
| 5 | Daniel Cobb | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.70 | 77.00 |
| 6 | Will Ford | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.70 | 77.00 |
| 7 | Kerry Hyder | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 77.00 |
| 8 | Christoper Knighton | D | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5.20 | 74.00 |
| 9 | Derrick Mays | D | 2.00 | 2.00 | 5.20 | 40.00 |
| 10 | Myles Wade | D | 3.00 | 4.00 | 5.80 | - |
| 11 | Dion Chidozie | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.60 | 73.00 |
| 12 | Romario Cathey | D | 2.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 74.00 |
| 13 | Brandon Mahoney | D | 4.00 | 3.00 | 5.70 | 80.00 |
| 14 | James Scott | D | 3.00 | 2.00 | 5.40 | 77.00 |
| 15 | Yashua Williams | D | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 77.00 |
| 16 | Pearlie Graves | D | 3.00 | 4.00 | 5.80 | 75.00 |
| AVERAGES | 2.75 | 2.88 | 5.53 | 66.38 |
I remember that when this class signed that Leach and McNeill wanted to recruit a team, and they did, especially on defense. For me, looking back, I think the things that stood out to me was the number of defensive backs and the fact that McNeill was able to lure to Texas Tech. The strange thing is that with the defensive backs, they're not necessarily defensive backs at this point. Bullitt and Cobb have been moved to linebacker. I think you need to watch out for Ford, who was out for almost the entire year (except for 4 games) with a hamstring injury. I'm guessing that if you're looking for players that may not be on the roster in the spring, Ford is one of those guys.
Meanwhile Johnson, Phillips and now Mays, are essentially your starting cornerbacks. And if you ever wanted a reason as to why the defense is struggling is that there is a difference between the type of athlete that plays man coverage and a cornerback that plays zone. In looking back at the type of athletes that we now know, I don't think there's any question that what DC Willis tried to do with the talent he had on hand is a testament to the fact that he wants cornerbacks that are capable of playing man coverage while McNeill wanted cornerbacks that could keep a play in front of them and play a cover-2 zone. They're completely different type of players, and perhaps Willis was a bit crazy to try and implement his system without the right type of players, but if he didn't, then he's a year behind if he decides to wait.
The other big part of this defensive class was the number of defensive linemen, and defensive linemen that are thankfully still on the team. There were two highly-rated defensive tackles, Wade and Graves, that had some years to develop. Although Wade was a JUCO, he was merely a sophomore when he first played for Texas Tech and he's still got one year remaining to make an impact. Add to that a guy like Barr, Hyder and Knighton still on the team is a good thing. They may get passed up on the depth chart, but this is the type of depth that helps a program, especially a program that had a ton of injuries along the line like Texas Tech did.
I mentioned that some of the defensive backs are now linebackers under DC Willis, but I think it's also interesting two of the three linebackers, Scott, Mahoney and Chidozie, only Chidozie is still with the team. Chidozie didn't get a ton of playing time this year and I'm thinking that he was always behind some of his peers in terms of development, but he's pretty smart. He was always a good athlete, we'll see if he can make that translate on the field next year.
2009 Recruiting Class | Offense
| # | Player | O/D/ST | Scout | Rivals | Rivals Rating | ESPN |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Eric Stephens | O | 2.00 | 4.00 | 5.80 | 78.00 |
| 2 | LaAdrian Waddle | O | 2.00 | 3.00 | 5.50 | 79.00 |
| 3 | Aaron Fisher | O | 3.00 | 3.00 | 5.70 | 77.00 |
| 4 | Joel Gray | O | 4.00 | 3.00 | 5.70 | 75.00 |
| 5 | Jacob Karam | O | 4.00 | 3.00 | 5.60 | 80.00 |
| 6 | Eric Ward | O | 4.00 | 4.00 | 5.80 | 79.00 |
| 7 | Kyle Clark | O | 3.00 | 4.00 | 5.80 | 79.00 |
| 8 | Ernest Celestie | O | 2.00 | 3.00 | 5.60 | 75.00 |
| 9 | Matt Goetz | O | 3.00 | 2.00 | 5.20 | 75.00 |
| AVERAGES | 3.00 | 3.22 | 5.63 | 77.44 |
A pretty small class and you're starting to see a trend of only a couple of offensive linemen that are in each class. Now that there are some rumblings that Joel Gray may not be back next year, possibly due to long-term injuries. Just something to watch. And Clark, despite being a highly rated lineman, hasn't been able to crack the depth chart and has been passed up by young offensive linemen. Waddle was the recruit with the least amount of fanfare, but has turned out to be incredibly solid for Texas Tech.
With the skill position players, Stephens forced himself into the lineup and we're somewhat waiting for Ward to do the same thing. I'm not necessarily down on Ward, but this year is his year to make an impact. Fisher finally saw a bit of time late this year and the fact that he's made a bit of a name for himself on special teams tells me a bit about his attitude more than anything else. I'm very comfortable with Karam and what he can do. I know that a lot of people think that one of the quarterbacks is going to transfer, but I'm not certain that's going to happen. Celestie may be another guy that walks away from the program this spring.
2009 Recruiting Class | Overall
| Year | # | Scout | Rivals | Rivals Rating | ESPN | ESPN Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 29 | 2.38 | 2.72 | 5.47 | 59.34 | |
| 2008 | 16 | 2.75 | 3.00 | 5.58 | 42.88 | |
| 2009 | 25 | 2.84 | 3.00 | 5.57 | 70.36 |
Improvement, or maintaining grades in the various recruiting services and huge improvement on the ESPN grade due to the fact that there was only one JUCO player.
2009 Recruiting Class | Overall | Offense
| Year | # | % | Scout | Rivals | Rivals Rating | ESPN | ESPN Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 15 | 51.72% | 2.40 | 2.80 | 5.49 | 66.33 | |
| 2008 | 7 | 43.75% | 2.43 | 3.00 | 5.59 | 54.43 | |
| 2009 | 9 | 36.00% | 3.00 | 3.22 | 5.63 | 77.44 |
This was the second year where Texas Tech had less than 50% of their recruiting class on the offensive side of the ball, but had higher grades than the defense. I have no doubt that Leach, Harrell, Crabtree and the success of the 2008 season had an impact on this class. At some point, you start to get a bit worried about the low percentage of offensive players being recruited as this trend continues for a least another year (2010).
2009 Recruiting Class | Overall | Defense
| Year | # | % | Scout | Rivals | Rivals Rating | ESPN | ESPN Grades |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 13 | 44.83% | 2.38 | 2.69 | 5.46 | 52.77 | |
| 2008 | 8 | 50.00% | 3.13 | 3.13 | 5.63 | 33.13 | |
| 2009 | 16 | 64.00% | 2.75 | 2.88 | 5.53 | 66.38 |
Despite the high grades given by the recruiting serves, except for ESPN, this looks like this class was a bit worse than the 2008 class, but as linked in this first paragraph there is only 1 player from that 2008 class that's still on the team, Cody Davis. That's a high attrition rate and although the 2009 class is rated a bit lower, it's significantly better because of the players that still have an opportunity to make an impact. This is the first full year that McNeill had an opportunity to be the coordinator and recruit his type of player and I think that this class is an overall success.
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QB's
is it to early to start talking about who will start next year? I think Brewer and Young both have a good chance of starting.
"A job well done is better than a job well said."
by I bleed Red and Black on Dec 20, 2010 9:14 AM CST reply actions
No it's not
I mentioned this in another post, but Brewer has a legit chance because of his mobility. Like Seth mentioned, I am one that thinks one of them will transfer. My money is on Karam transfering and Brewer starts as a sophomore in 2012. Just mho. Either way I think with Young and Brewer we are set for a couple years.
Adversity causes some men to break, and others to break records.
-- Source Unknown
by TechRed01 on Dec 20, 2010 10:39 AM CST via mobile up reply actions
Hard to say
I would probably agree that Karam is the weakest link among the QB talent that will be at next season. Brewer looks really good as far as mobility and just all around fire. Young is going to be a stud also so I think this spring camp will have loads of competition among these QBs. It’s a nice problem to have if your a Tech fan.
"You've got to find your inner pirate" - Mike Leach
"We started too late" - Neal Brown
Seth - Thanks, these are good and interesting analyses...
I think it would be interesting if you were able to go even further back prior to 2007 (maybe if things get really boring in the middle of the summer… although I’m sure you have plenty of other things to do…)
As I eyeball it myself, I’m amazed at how “bad” some of our old recruiting classes look based on who really made a significant contribution to the team… I’m also amazed at the apparently low degree of correlation between individual recruit ratings and subsequent actual performance (most pronounced with juco players)…
Also, on juco players (I know we’ve had a little back and forth about this before)…
What if you just added a column that noted the number of juco players included in the class?
This gives us a little more context for the class/rankings… and I think it adds a useful metric with which to evaluate the class (Were we so thin in certain areas that we had to try more juco’s? Are we trending more away from juco’s or ie there any pattern at all? etc…)
"Transition is hard." - TT
I can do separate tables for JUCO players. Let me get through the 2010 class, which is next week, and we’ll go from there. Last year, the class had to have some JUCO players because the defensive line was decimated. Off the top of my head, we had Scott Smith, Donald Langley and Lawrence Rumph. But this had to happen because the prior JUCO’s had graduated, Sharpe and Howard. In the 2011 class, only WR Marcus Kennard is a JUCO player.
I was also thinking about this grading system (this is also a response to TallMike):
95 All-Big 12; multiple year starter
90 Three year starter
85 Two year starter
80 Starter for one year; multiple year contributor
75 Multiple year contributor
70 One year contributor
60 On team, never contributes
50 Does not qualify or on team past one year
Go Raiders . . .
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Just to clarify...
I meant just add one column on your (current) “Overall” tables that noted the number of juco recruits…
maybe after the ‘#’ column or the ‘%’ column…
"Transition is hard." - TT
by Houston Raider on Dec 21, 2010 11:50 AM CST up reply actions
I see where you are going and that is a start....
the task is really massive…a lot of weird things happen…like last 2009’s OL. We had some guys start who really were not ‘starters’ but were forced into playing time because injuries and depth issues left no choice…McDainiels is the poster child for that situation.
A guy who is All-Big12, mucltiple starter—and named All-American by the more than one All-American sponsers might earn additional points for their level of recognition….it gets very complicated.
Just based on playing time alone—w/o being a starter is worth something—we play two deep at receiver—is that 4 starters or 8…someone has to play the first play….very complicated….
Is someone who is a multiple year contributor on special teams worth the same points as someone who is multiple year contributor at db, receiver, linebacker…lots and lots of data…complicated.
as for me and my house, we chose the Lord.
Parity and Attrition;
I think I read earlier before the season started where Tubby said that it is not unusual to lose a couple of kids to grades, and that they will send them to JUCO to both get qualifeid and develop. I even think I remember where he said that they had a limited number of scholarships to offer this year, but they did expect to lose some kids, and that would add to our numbers.
Seth, gerat job on the recruiting rankings. One thing I have noticed is that with the 25 scholarship limit, it appears that parity cuts both ways. While we saw what effect it had on the Whornes this year, it can also help and hurt us at the same time. Mac missed on a lot of kids, and I think it will take them another year to recover.
It looks like to me that we do very well with those two and three star recruites, but when we miss on a four star recruit, it really hurts our depth chart. I think that has what happened both on defense and offesne this year. I think that with some of the success on the field, Team Leach and company were getting better recruits, but when they did not make it to class or perform on the field, it hurt us.
Lets hope that Tubby can recruit better overall so that when we do miss on a couple of key kids, our depth does not suffer as much as it did this year. In my opinion, I think you are better off with 10 three star recruits, instead of 7 three star and 3 four star. I like players with hear and passion. It is so hard to coach kids who think they know it all.
I did not agree with the either the OC or DC schemes this year, but at least now we can gauge this years class with the past three classes, which in form, is what will be on the field next year.
Another Red Riader First Down.
"I'm too close to the fire to say. Come on down to Key West and hang out for a while. Can you imagine the resistance that the caveman who invented the wheel got or the guy who invented fire? - Mike Leach.
These looks into the recruiting classes are interesting.
I think the most valid way of evaluating a class is on the basis of contribution and accomplishments.
That is really the basis of the recruiting services rankings, accomplishment in HS school + college level measureables.
as for me and my house, we chose the Lord.
What do you think about this grading system:
95 All-Big 12; multiple year starter
90 Three year starter
85 Two year starter
80 Starter for one year; multiple year contributor
75 Multiple year contributor
70 One year contributor
60 On team, never contributes
50 Does not qualify or on team past one year
Go Raiders . . .
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