A look back at 2010 to peer forward to theTicketCity Bowl

So what I’d expect to see from Head Coaches Tommy Tuberville and NU Pat Fitzgerald in Dallas.

 Northwestern will try to execute a ball control scheme and keep the Tech offense off the field. Tubs will try to run it for first three series and when that fails, go back to slinging it to the perimeter. Only wild card in this one is special teams play.  I think the Raiders are vulnerable to a punt block package and I think NU is vulnerable to a kick off reverse or fake reverse by the Raiders. The Wildcats have nearly as bad a defense as we do and can’t bring pressure on anybody in the Big 10 but they will against us.  A la Minnesota in 2006.   Kind of like Kansas in 2009 putting 4  x defensive ends on the field and out running our  O line to the QB.  I am a little concerned about the number of total tackles by the front 4, the DE/DTs seem to very active.(see Seth C’s run down from 21 Dec Seth C. NU vs TTU)  Perhaps that’s the nature of a league- Big 10 in  which the  ground game is dominant.

Crowd:  I’d expect that the Techsters dominate  say 70% of the fans and though I would like to see us- both fan bases - fill the place somehow  it’s an 80% butts in seats crowd early on New Year’s day.

In retrospect the Tech season turned on a couple of series. Our strength the offense failed us. That intangible hard to pinpoint ability to simply out execute the opponent in the passing attack. Where the routine crossing route and the comeback toss could not be stymied. It was not there in 2010. By my count the core  4 x Tech  losses which turned this season into a mediocre  event  can be explained as follows: The three consecutive 3rd  and longs in the 2nd period against UT,  a poor first quarter of tackling followed by an anemic offensive performance against ISU,  the 3  x  3 and outs with  weak punts versus OSU in the first period,  2 x first half  fumbles against aTm inside the red zone.

Being boring is exactly that boring.  Whatever run to set up the pass our OC is scripting to start a game isn’t working.

Getting offensively passed by Oki  lite and Aggie is annoying. Remember that two first year starters at QB for these guys drubbed the snot out of the Raider defense and neither of our Senior QB’s could answer the barrage. It’s an over simplification of a team sport but it’s indicative of some of the fan frustration.

Risk /reward is tempered by precision and imposing what you do well on somebody else. It’s the imposition of your will which drives the essence of fear, coupled to frustration, married to panic. Seeking to so thoroughly overmaster your game so as to dominate the opponent. Where every decision, every play called is wrong.

I can't tell what is going to happen in the cotton Bowl on 01 Jan 2011 but a look at how the two teams ran thru 2010  i.e. in each league may shed some light.

                                Conference                        Non Conference

Difference in scoring Tech scored 80 points less than its Big12 opponents and scored 21 more than its overall season long opponents.

 Difference in scoring NU scored 85 points less than its Big10 opponents and was outscored by 27 more than its overall season long opponents.

An ugly way to say neither teams offense  showed up much in key conference games for Tech it was UT, aTm (until late) and OU. Versus OSU the Raiders were inept, an untimely turn over. Tech let Okie lite go to clock burning mode.  For Northwestern after their high speed QB  Dan Persa went down it was a disaster versus  Illinois( NU still put up 27 points.) Wisconsin scored 49 of its 70 points in the first half. They lost by 8 to Michigan State who took huge chances to stun them and then by 14 to Penn State.  The Penn state game saw an epic 2nd half meltdown with the Nittany Lions scoring 35 unanswered points.   Sounds and smells like the 2nd quarter of the Iowa State game for Tech doesn’t it? IE 21 unanswered points by the Cyclones shoved onto the Tech defensive ledger.

The Offensive statistical break down of the Wildcats is below ( to give credit I found these tables on the NCAA Stats site)

 Northwestern Season review by Scout.com

Offense First Downs gained:

Winning 5 out the gate was sweet. What this particular spreadsheet illustrates is when NU offense can stay on the field they can win games. Look at the way their defense gave up first downs in every loss except MSU they allowed the opponent to run successfully for firsts. I for one hope Coach Brown isn’t thinking the Raiders are power I team all of a sudden. (sarcasm)

Defensive First Downs allowed: 

 Texas tech season review by Scout .com

The Tech offensive statistics again focused on first downs. What’s interesting here is both the Wildcats and the Raiders had almost the same number of fumbles and lost 50% of them. Offensively because the Tubs / Willis / Neal theory is to runoff clock time (IMO) the fumbles loomed even larger as game changers. In the first downs gained category the Raiders had 10 games wherein they gained more first downs in the air than they did rushing the only exceptions being the 2 Oklahoma teams. Which were losses.. hm.. probably goes to doing what you do well. Recall that in the OSU and OU games we got behind  early then inexplicably can’t complete a pass.

 Offensive First  Downs gained

 Defensive First Downs allowed:

So on to the game predictions or rather what I would expect to be the game plan coming into Dallas for each team.

First Northwestern is under no illusions (IMO) that they want to get into shootout just based on their QB woes. Redshirt freshman Evan Watkins started the final  two games, completing 23 of 42 for 258 yards with a TD and four interceptions, and will line up against Texas Tech, with true freshman Kain Colter serving as the backup.

The Wildcats, among the worst in the nation with 3.3 sacks allowed per game, know they have to do a better job protecting their inexperienced quarterbacks.

But they have to wonder since our defense has given up so many yards in the air and as illustrated above so many first downs/scores or rather scoring opportunities perhaps they should throw first? The Tech defense in all 5 losses and two victories routinely allowed explosive passing  plays . Ie over 15 yards. I say that it is unlikely they go pass heavy but in fact they are going to be balanced throw short, take some shots, run a lot of sweeps. NU averaged 27 or less over the last half of the season but this was against the toughest teams on their schedule in the conference. None of those opponents has a slouch defense. Our defense has truthfully played only 4 what can be rated as good games. And they had forgettable quarters against aTm, OSU and Iowa State.  BTW the NU kicker is good. The 15 practices they garnered for Bowl prep will do a lot to settle the O line around a new starting QB.

Techs scheme is unfortunately likely to include some ineffectual rushing plays. I think most of us would love to see 4-5 yards ripped off on 2nd 6. That hasn’t happened with any consistency and Coach Brown’s scripted first three series has been in a word predictable. We have seen a lot of 3rd and long situations. We have seen more punt coverage from this version of the Raiders than any in the last 5 years.  I don’t see this Raider O line blowing these guys off the ball.  They have big line backers and safeties. It would appear that reverting to a pass to set up  the draw/ shovel pass could  begin to wear on these guys.  Searching for that magical frustration point where every call is wrong.  Get a   2 plus score lead up then try a few runs. Of the entire counter schemes it wouldn’t surprise me that NU plays bend but don’t break soft zone with a linebacker coming on most plays. The game plan to try and make Tech punch it in from around the 25 -10 yards line or kick the FG. That would make the NU defensive staff smile. Of all the Tech offenses which we have seen this year  I ‘d most like to see is the one we attacked Baylor with in the 2nd period or Houston  in the 3rd period. Pass. Yac. Pass. Draw then pass more.  Try to tire out that Wildcat D line quickly.

There is an intangible here Northwestern has lost all seven bowl games it has played since winning its first one - the 1949 Rose Bowl. The Wildcats have a recent habit of playing excellent ball going into their last 2 Bowl appearances.  Unfortunately for the team not much success here.  QB play  - Taylor Potts not throwing interceptions -  is a big reason Texas Tech is making its 11th consecutive bowl appearance. He's completed 65.9 percent of his passes for 3,357 yards with 31 TDs and nine interceptions. The Wildcat Redshirt freshman QB threw four against Wisconsin.  Texas Tech ranks eighth in the FBS in passing with 314.8 yards per game while averaging 32.1 points, including 99 over its final two games. So you have home game for Tech (in effect), an opponent rethinking their offense, a mistake prone Tech defense One team is riding a 2 game win streak the other 2 game losing streak. I ‘d expect a slugfest where one team collapses or stumbles late.