Where I Come From: Expectations for the Season
by Seth C on Jul 12, 2010 9:00 AM CDT
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Enough looking back: let's look forward. Why I'm excited about this fall.
An Emphasis on the Running Game: It seems like when Tuberville was hired and one of his initial tenants was that he wanted to keep the spread, but he wanted emphasize the running game. There was quite a bit of speculating after Tuberville made those initial comments, especially thoughts that Texas Tech would turn into a power-running team, complete with two wide, a tight end, a fullback and a tailback. I think the above scenario is possible, on the goal line, but for the most part, I have no doubt that offensive coordinator Neal Brown will continue to run the same type of offense that we know and love . . . but the running backs will get more touches. This isn't necessarily an original thought because coaches and fans have said that the running back position has the best play-makers on the team, and there's no doubt about that. Explosiveness is something that's tough to gauge and typically, I've always thought that yards per carry is a pretty good indication of whether or not a player has the ability to be explosive or perhaps that this is a situation where because of the offense, these players have inflated statistics. With that being said, if you take a look at the Big 12 conference numbers for yards per carry, it appears that Texas Tech is 11th in the conference at 3.42 YPC. If you dig a little bit deeper, you realize that Texas Tech also gave up the second most yards in the conference in sacks allowed at 317 yards over the course of the season. But the running backs, all averaged over 5 yards a carry:
Baron Batch: 168 Att : 884 Yards : 5.26 Avg : 14 TD
Eric Stephens: 49 Att : 254 Yards : 5.18 Avg : 2 TD
Harrison Jeffers: 35 Att : 217 Yards : 6.20 Avg : 4 TD
You add to this an offensive line, that I think will be better than last year. I'm still not sure how to quantify how much better the offensive line will be, but I do think that the line will be more athletic and a bit stronger. And I have a tough time saying this, because I don't discount the job that Brandon Carter did at guard, and this is a theory I've been chewing on for quite some time, but perhaps you might be able to predict an offensive line dip depending on if and where a player is drafted. For instance, if a Player A is drafted in rounds 1-4 then replacement Player B will not give you the same type of production as Player A (something like he might be 1% to 25% of Player A). If it's rounds 5-7 then maybe the replacement player performs 25% to 50% of the leaving player, if the player is an undrafted but signed free-agent the replacement player performs at 50% to 75% of the leaving player and if the player doesn't get a sniff with the NFL, then the college team may expect zero drop-off in production. So to play this out, with Louis Vasquez getting drafted in the 3rd round, I think that Rylan Reed gets drafted in the 7th round or undrafted, but signed free agnet and Stephen Hamby getting a free-agent deal, then you could expect some drop-off at at least three positions. With only Brandon Carter and Marlon Winn getting free-agent deals, perhaps you can expect a slight drop at their positions, but really nothing significant.
So much more after the jump.
A Defensive Front with Potential: There's no doubt that for the second year in a row, the offense is replacing significant production at the defensive end position with Brandon Sharpe, Daniel Howard and Rajon Henley. Not only that, but Texas Tech graduated rotation players and starters in Richard Jones and Victor Hunter, but there's quite a bit of reason for optimism with this group. We all know about DT Colby Whitlock and I'm with quite a few people in that I think Whitlock plays on Sundays. But the rest is based on optimism and potential of players that were at one time highly-rated prospects. This is a pretty impressive list of candidates:
DE/DT Scott Smith : 6-7/275 : Originally played at California, rated as a 4-star and 3-star.
DE/DT Donald Langley : 6-2/290 : Originally played at Tennessee, rated as 3-star.
DE/DT Lawrence Rumph : 6-4/270 : Rated as a 4-star and a 3-star.
DE/DT Myles Wade : 6-2/340 : Originally signed with Oregon, rated as a 4-star and 3-star.
You get where I'm going here, and this list doesn't include any freshman that were signed in either the 2009 Class or the 2010 Class (Pearlie Graves, Kerry Hyder, Aundrey Barr, Chris Knighton, Dartwan Bush, Lawrence Cayou, Mike Jones, and Jackson Richards). One other note, I've listed each and every one of these players as being both defensive ends and defensive tackles. I get the impression that everyone is going into the summer and fall practices as being just players along the defensive line and positions are to-be-determined. There's potential and depth here and I think that due to the change in defense, there's perhaps a new opportunity for some of these guys to prove themselves. Not only that, with so many JUCO players, there should be fierce competition at 3 or 4 positions.
Athleticism in the Secondary: I'm not sure that we've talked too much about the improved athleticsm in the secondary. Jamar Wall was a pretty good player for Texas Tech, solid but not spectacular, but I don't think it's a stretch to think that either Jarvis Phillips, D.J. Johnson and Will Ford will be improvements at the cornerback position. Just about every other position is set with Cody Davis and Franklin Mitchem returning. Then you have the current coaching staff making a huge push for secondary help in the 2010 recruiting class. Athletes such as Phillip Warren, Lavaughn Whigham, Brandon Smith, Tre'Vante Porter, Desmond Martin and Urell Johnson. Add to that the 2009 recruiting class, some of these players have already been mentioned, but the key is that they're young and both groups will be competing for playing time: Terrance Bullit, Will Ford, Jarvis Phillips and Yahshua Williams. Perhaps the best way to think about this group is that they may not be the most highly rated group, but both the previous coaching staff and the current coaching staff, I think, put an emphasis on athleticism in the secondary and considering the offenses in today's Big 12, this should payoff in the years to come. Not only that, the emphasis on the current staff to stack talented players on top of the former group emphasizes that none of these players should think about taking off plays this fall.
Playmaking Options at Receiver: One of the big questions after the end of the season was that the receiving corps lacked true play-makers at the receiving position. The receivers that received a bulk of the catches were solid, but more times than not, they didn't make anything special happen with the ball once they made the catch. There's a pretty good chance that we were spoiled with Michael Crabtree and his incredible performance, but I'd be lying if I said that I think 2010 will be different. This may be a situation where I'm letting my better judgement get the best of me, but I think it's just a matter of time before both Eric Ward and Cornelius Douglas make names for themselves as play-makers in the Big 12. Watching the both of them during the spring game, you could certainly see that they've got a little extra bit of play-making ability, whether it be making defenders miss or simply being stronger than their defender, I think both of these players have it. Don't get me wrong, it's not that I think that players such as Alexander Torres, Jacoby Franks, Detron Lewis, Austin Zouzalik, Tramain Swindall, etc. can't or won't make plays, but every team needs guys like Ward and Douglas, that can turn a simple pass into a 40 yard reception for a touchdown.
What about you, what gives you hope for the upcoming season? Have at it in the comments.
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I think the statistical approach for the OL is interesting.
It can apply to the defense as well, or no ?
We have good players on both sides of the ball, it is more a question of can they come together and play team football with great passion and energy.
I am resigned to the thought that the running game will be different in two major ways this season, a few more plays—5 to 6 per game on average, and that the OL will drive block more rather than continue to pass block as we did under the previous staff—anyone see anything from Spring to validate the blocking schemes ?
women should put pictures of missing husbands on beer cans
Yes, I think this could apply to just about any position, but
I thought that it could especially apply to the offensive line because it’s tough to gauge how much a player means to a team based on some sort of statistical measure.
Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation
I should also mention that
me just assigning percentages isn’t the right way to do this. I guess there has to be some method to figure this out, but I’m not smart enough to do it.
Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation
Upcoming season
I’m super optimistic about what this coaching staff and group of players could accomplish. Like most I’m more concerned with our defense. The 3-4 is new to these guys and I know it will take some time to adjust into the change. I like having more players deep with opposing spread offenses. I also like blitzing and forcing QB’s out of their comfort zone. I think moving Ducan to the outside(LB) was a wise move and I can see him stepping up his game even more. The DE position has me guessing. I think Scott Smith could be a great one. I would also like to see Rumph as a DE. We have had some really great DE’s at Tech in recent years and I just hope that trend can continue. The secondary has depth so I’m not too worried about it. I think the DB’s will be tested and I can easily see some transitioning in and out among a large group of players.
Offensively, I have little worries. The offense is loaded with talent. Among the WR’s you can’t go wrong. Torres and Ward are my playmakers for 2010. At RB, the stable is loaded and I believe Batch has his best season that falls just short of 1K yards. At QB I want SS but I’m good with who ever wins the battle. The depth at QB should allow us all to sleep at night. Lastly, the OL will do what it needs to do under Matt Moore’s watch. That is one coach I firmly believe in without worry.
"You've got to find your inner pirate" - Mike Leach
Quarterback.
I won’t be doing the research, but i wonder how many QBs won the Manning Contest, but did not start for their team the upcoming season.
I’m still in the camp that Sticks brings a little something extra, but I have to think accolades like this contest can only improve Pott’s confidence (the area of most concern). I think it’s telling that Lubbock news reported that Sticks still was not healthy enough to compete in this contest. In the end I want whoever starts to be 100% healthy day one. If Stick’s health continues to be a concern, I may find myself favoring a Potts start (with miniscule short leash), and Sticks as back up. Lets face it. If our starting QB struggles early (before Texas) or gets injured, who would you like to see trott out on the field to save the day? Pott’s or Sticks? I think if Sticks starts, goes down, and then Potts trotts out, the majority of us will be adjusting our win expectations down from that point. I know I am talking in circles here, but so goes the nature of the situation we find ourselves.
"We have a running game at Tech......sometimes we throw short passes." -Mike Leach
Potts has it
in NON game-time environments. He has proved this over and over. Sticks was never even mentioned before the season last year because Potts is stellar in practice situations. It’s when the game is on that he collapses. I’m not surprised to hear that he won this competition, but knowing that he won it I can guarantee you that it was not an in-game environment.
I trust the coaching staff to do what is best for the team and I will cheer for my team regardless of who comes out 5 yds behind center. Let’s just not read too much into Potts winning a practice competition.
by jdeeTTU on Jul 12, 2010 10:55 AM CDT reply actions 1 recs
Potts:
For all the grief I and others have bestowed on this QB, the reality is there is one area that Potts could improve upon and it would completly change his legacy: INTERCEPTIONS. When a QB struggles, you can usually point to a gazzilion things he needs to improve to be the QB he was meant to be. But in Potts case, the overall numbers are still very good. If we are honest, if he was able to simply cut his interceptions in half, he is a completely different QB. Something as simple as the staff working on throwing the ball away more often would have, and could make a night and day impact.
"I ma not saying I am prepared to do what I am asking you to do...I just need you to do it better...and faster."
Potts has many, many bigger problems than interceptions
His passing is all off under game speed conditions. He underthrows the RB screens, so their momentum is stopped when they have to turn back to reach down to catch the ball. He overthrows the long passes. Mid range passes he is accurate but he slings them in so hard, they bounce off the receivers’ hands. The worst problem Potts has is making decisions under pressure. Maybe with Neal Brown calling the plays, that issue will fade some. I just pray & hope Sheffield can remain healthy this year. Or Karem steps up if not. I saw all of Potts under center I want to see last year.
"I can't believe I finally decide to let a girl into my life and she tries to eat me" - Zombieland
Maby he is learning to control that arm
According to ESPN’s Chris Mortensen, who was on hand in Thibodaux, Louisiana, Simms showed off an “arm as strong as anyone” and can “spin it big time.” Simms was the “wow guy,” but Potts won using a “softer style” that apparently allowed for better accuracy.
FORZA ROSSI
hmmmmmmm
Potts won using a "softer style" that apparently allowed for better accuracy.
Less drops from his tender-handed receivers?
by TheScarletandTheBlack on Jul 12, 2010 12:42 PM CDT up reply actions
Tubberville mentioned your exact point when he spoke in Dallas, I witnessed it in the flesh, that a big part of the job of cocahces it to determine who starts when one guy is good in practice and another is not good in practice but great in games.
by Gus Mitchem on Jul 12, 2010 11:40 AM CDT up reply actions
I am optimistic about this season. I don’t have absurd expectations of a 11-1 or 12-0 so I won’t be let down (and really only a few teams in any season should ever have that expectation).
I have a good feeling about 9 regular season wins and a nice bowl berth. I don’t expect a huge drop off in that regard from the Leach era. I do think the days of 550 passing yards and only 27 min of possession time are over probably over. I also think Tech will play more games with our scores in the high 20s and low 30s and that will be more the norm. Deffensively, I see us giving up a few more big plays (learning curve, lack of the system players), but also see us making more impact deffensive plays on a regular basis. I’m totally fine with all that.
I’m happy the drama is behind us for the most part and we can settle in for good football and a new chapter. I’m sure the Leach mess will pop up from time to time until he or Tech gets what he/they want(s) and then he finds other work, but we’re less than two months away from the good guys taking the field. THAT is awesomeness.
Not even a 10-2?
We’ve discussed it before, and could probably open a completely different thread on it. I think 10-2 is possible along with 11-1.
The drama won’t ever be gone.
" Answers --Become Resources."
Without Questions, There are limited Resources...
The great thing about this season is it is literally wide open. Anyone of four teams could win the thing. Texas feels like a new team, OU was so disappointing last year that we have almost forgot that the trials of last season got valuabe expreiece for younger guys, Atm is super talented and has lots of experiece a great QB and a dynamic offense, we got a serious upgrade in coaching a new defense tons of experience returning a QB contreversoy off the bat, we could just as easily end up in another three way tie. Between any four of those teams
I just had to listen to an Aggie tell me how down aggies are with Tubs and how they think he will do what Francione did to A&M here. Also, that we will run all the time and they aren’t worried about us anymore. Plus their offer to the SEC wasn’t contingent on anything and they stayed with Texas for all benefit. Thank you savior aggies.
On another note, if harrison Jeffers can get into some type of rhythm then he can really set things off. We need him. I think work ethic might be keeping him down. Who knows.
I expect big things and am most excited for our Defense. Can’t wait to see some aggression on D at times. Can’t wait!!!!
Tubberville did say in the much publicized interview that he was really impressed wtih Batch and Jeffers, but the interesting part was that he said something to the tune that they (backs) had never really run hard before, like through the trenches downhill running. So I guess from that you can dertermine that he didnt have much respect for the type of running that Leach did, and when he talks about running he really means running right down the gut.
We have Aggie right where we want them.
Not being concerned with a team will get you a LOSS.
See Aggie 2009. They are sooo dead this year.
That is all.
" Answers --Become Resources."
Without Questions, There are limited Resources...
I do expect at least 10 wins....
The Jeep will bring a more attacking style and I think that bodes well…..TTU may give up a few more big plays but I think there will be lots mor 3 and outs than big plays…..TTU offense is loaded as usual and the struggles of the O line last year leaves us with some underclassmen who have “some” experience and that is the main thing that must gel…..Sticks is the man and if he can stay healthy then TTU has a great shot @ 11 or 12 wins…. with Potts we still get to 10…..we will just see… I can’t wait!!! Wreck’Em Tech
I am convinced that the Tech defensive set is going to be very hard on any team which doesn’t field a veteran( above average) Offensive line. That means aTm, Oklahoma, OSU and Baylor. North division wise Colorado is going to have trouble with these hombres. Mizzou not so much. Iowa state and Baylor may both surrender 4 plus sacks. OOC SMU might give them trouble initially. Mostly because we are now at game speed. NMU expect a feeding frenzy. Houston will be tough but mostly because of timing i.e. end of season, nicked up players and the real potential that going into that game the Raiders are undefeated and riding a bit high in the saddle. UT – well I’d expect another crop of near all American O linemen so in that match up its all even. More so because UT has to come to the Jones.
As far as getting playmakers ready and on the field, along with showing running game "emphasis" I am of two minds here. One is reps in practice the other; is game management. The practice regime should be maintained by Tommmy Mainord and Sonny Cumbie is so as far as QB to receiver repetitions. This should keep the edge on the passing attack. Forcing in extra running plays during practice well let’s just say I hope it doesn’t degrade the efficiency of the pass attack. Just time management at practice. Coach Neal Brown has said recently they kept the terminology the guys were familiar with from Coach Leach’s offense. So as far as a transition point that’s a positive – i.e. one less thing to learn. Game management well that’s just the momentum of keeping the opponents defense rocked on their heels with an unrelentingly accurate short passing game and 3 – 7 yard bursts from RB’s. Potts probably benefits from a plays called from the sidelines regime. Sheffield not as much. While on defense forcing 3 and outs so they can hand off to the big O again. Lets hope that’s what we get from the “Jeep” defense.
"do routine things routinely"
I am not optimistic......For a big run this year.
I just don’t think you switch out brains without skipping a beat. I see 4 losses at minimum.
I hope I am wrong.
"Life is short, tell me how you really feel"- me
by oldschoolraider on Jul 12, 2010 3:51 PM CDT via mobile reply actions
4 losses? really?
have you even seen our schedule?
"A job well done is better than a job well said."
by I bleed Red and Black on Jul 12, 2010 4:45 PM CDT up reply actions
No....I've just been a red raider fan for 25 years
And have been on dtn for two years…..so I don’t keep up with the schedules and the like.
You really added a lot with that Mensa comment. Put your pom pons down long enough to ask a substantive question.
"Life is short, tell me how you really feel"- me
by oldschoolraider on Jul 12, 2010 6:12 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
HAHAHAHA....., AMEN
But, at least we’re not Aggies.
I vote for no more than 3 regular season losses.
"A closed mouth gathers no foot"
Tell me sticks stays healthy
And I say no more than 2 losses.
"Life is short, tell me how you really feel"- me
by oldschoolraider on Jul 12, 2010 9:57 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Will Sheffield be healthy in time?
I really like our chances with Steven Sheffield. It’s a little concerning to hear that he still isn’t 100% healthy. The less exposure and practice he has, the more I begin to believe that Potts will win this QB battle by default. It was previously stated that our expectations will diminish with Potts at the helm. I just don’t any reason to believe that Potts has improved and changed his mechanics enough. Our offensive line isn’t what it was back in the glory days (2008 season), and Potts is hardly mobile. Sheffield needs to be healthy and win this battle, otherwise my expectations go from a 10-2 season to a 9-3 and more likely 8-4 season with Potts playing.
Remember, Potts was crushed by the Texas D-line down in Austin. Something tells me that we’re going to need a QB like Sticks that can evade a dangerous situation and improvise if we want any shot of beating Texas and other quality teams this year. I just don’t think Potts is that type of a QB.
+1
FYI…..I was RHIM ’88
"Life is short, tell me how you really feel"- me
by oldschoolraider on Jul 12, 2010 6:14 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
That hit to me is also on the OT Winn? he did little to slow down Kindle. If I remember correctly our OT was just getting out of his stance when Potts took that hit.
by ST04 on Jul 13, 2010 1:02 AM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Yes
Winn didn’t chip, or even look at Kindle on that hit. If you go back and look at video, Potts had Zouzalic wide open in the middle of field (and looked like there was no safety help) and was bringing the ball up to get it out right as Kindle made the illegal hit on him. All Winn had to do was chip Kindle, and that play might have gone for 90 yards.
by TheScarletandTheBlack on Jul 14, 2010 11:01 AM CDT up reply actions
Finally got the video on YouTube to work
Seems some of their servers are down right now. Anyway, Winn does look at him, but only gets maybe two fingers on him. Zouzalik was open, but probably would have got just 15-20 yards and not a TD.
by TheScarletandTheBlack on Jul 14, 2010 11:06 AM CDT up reply actions
Refuse to Be Pessimistic
Until reality bursts our bubble. Right now we are undefeated, uninjured, three and four deep, with a great recruiting class, two good QBs(with ?s), two young and capable QBs (with ?s), a great set of backs, a great set of receivers, some gifted DBs and a whole slew of new defensive players to watch, some great new coaches, some great memories of the Leach years, and two winnable ooc games before playing UT at home in a nationally televised game. Who knows? Maybe this year Texas Tech realizes its destiny and wins a championship. It’s a good time of year for a fan. Guns up!
Did I mention that my daughter will be a freshman at Tech this Fall?
OK, well tell her she needs to paint up red & black and get on the front row
It’s a Double T Nation tradition:
http://cdn1.sbnation.com/fan_shot_images/113303/ttubaby_and_girl.jpg
"I can't believe I finally decide to let a girl into my life and she tries to eat me" - Zombieland
you were reading my mind...
"Fill it up again". "It's so good! Once it hits your lips it's so good!" -Frank the Tank
People are acting like.....
Running the ball with a little success is a bad thing……Not in Brown’s context. We wont be running and milking the clock unless we want to. We will be doing the nascar thing….where we line up for the next play as quick as the ball is put into play by the officials….so we get a good play in, run or pass, and were ready for the next play. Relax….it’s all good……lots of ways to score….and in between we might have this thing called defense…. which we haven’t had since about Zach Thomas.
Great point, IMHO !!
Brown and Tuberville masy not be intending to run out the clock as much as wanting to score and score and score a la TTU’s past, but with an added burden for opposing defenses to consider…a little more run…perhaps more accurately a little more run run a little more effectively in their humble opinions (after all they do have the onus ). I like your perspective, NorthAustin.
women should put pictures of missing husbands on beer cans
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