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Around SBN: Preakness 2012: I'll Have Another Wins Again

What We Think We Know | SMU Mustangs

SMU MUSTANGS
Stats Schedule
OFFENSE 9/5 @ Texas Tech
Rushing | 109.77 (103) 9/11 UAB
Passing | 282.00 (15) 9/18 Washington St.
Total | 391.77 (51) 9/24 TCU
Scoring | 29.23 (45) 10/2 @ Rice
9/9 Tulsa
DEFENSE 9/16 @ Navy
Rushing | 166.69 (88) 9/23 Houston
Passing | 230.38 (79) 9/30 @ Tulane
Total | 397.08 (84) 11/6 @ UTEP
Scoring | 27.62 (80) 11/20 Marshall
TO Margin | 0.15 (51) @ East Carolina

What We Know | The Mustangs are coming off a really good season, after going 1-11 in 2008 to 8-5 in 2009. I think June Jones is part miracle worker.  Quarterback Kyle Padron returns for the Ponies and he helped lead a SMU offense to 15th in the nation in passing offense last year in the NCAA. The biggest problem for SMU on offense is that they're replacing Emanuel Sanders, the Mustangs' top pass-catching threat last year and one damn fine receiver.  Aldrick Robinson is expected to pick up where Sanders left off, but Red Raider fans know what it's like replacing a player that was a huge part of the team's offensive production. It's typical for a team to be held back by one side of the ball, offense or defense, and that was the case for SMU. The defense ranked 84th in the nation overall last year, was 88th against the run and 79th against the pass. Despite the overall problems with the defense, the 2009 season was pretty spectacular considering the recent history with SMU.

What Can We Expect | It's not a stretch to think that the Texas Tech cornerbacks and safeties will get a healthy workout this game. Cornerbacks Will Ford, D.J. Johnson, Jarvis Phillips and Tre' Porter will be tested early and often against SMU. The safeties will also be tested early and often as June Jones offense is predicated more on getting the ball down the field.  Cody Davis and Franklin Mitchem better be ready. I think a big part of the secondary's success will be dependent on whether or not the Texas Tech pass rush can get pressure on Padron.  Tuberville has preached all spring and fall practices that he wants to put pressure on the defense from all over the field and there's no doubt that I'm truly interested in the, hopefully, new and improved defense. Texas Tech fans aren't sure what they're going to get out of the defensive line, other than DT Colby Whitlock. We've seen some of the defensive line in bits and pieces during the spring game, but not the entire unit as a whole.  If we're being honest, the defense will be tested. Considering the struggles that SMU has had defensively, I think it's safe to expect that you'll see a Texas Tech offense try and put pressure on SMU early and often to help out a relatively unproven defensive front five and secondary.

SMU Week
MONDAY Five Questions
TUESDAY What We Think We Know
WEDNESDAY Keys to the Game
THURSDAY Reasons for Concern and Optimism
FRIDAY Prediction Time

Players I Think You Should Watch | It's hard not to spotlight the play of QB Kyle Padron. In only 7 games last year, Padron completed 67.2% of his passes with 9.6 yards per attempt, 10 touchdowns and 4 interceptions. This is not a dink-and-dump offense, but rather an offense that gets the ball down the field. Padron finished with a quarterback rating of 159.92 and averaged 274.6 yards per game passing. And just to express how good Padron was last year, take a look at SMU's bowl game against Nevada: 32/41 (78.0%) | 460 Yards | 11.2 Yards/Attempt | 0 INT | 2 TD | 188.40 Rating.  That's pretty good. Padron can play.

Defensively, you can still expect to see quite a bit of FS Chris Banjo roaming centerfield in the secondary and he's a proven commodity, but you should certainly pay attention to DE Margus Hunt, a 6-8/270 defensive end from Estonia (I think the Texas Tech players have mentioned him) who is big and athletic (I think he's some sort of discus champion).  But this isn't Phil Taylor huge (big but can't play), this is a strong, athletic defensive end.  And he's only a sophomore.  We should find out pretty quickly if LT LaAdrian Waddle is going to be ready to play this year.

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Excellent write-up as always, Seth.

"When things are at their darkest, pal, it's a brave man that can kick back and party." - Lt. Tuck Pendleton

by TechMDY on Aug 31, 2010 11:04 AM CDT reply actions  

Hunt was a top discus guy until SMU dropped their track program so he gave football a try. freak athlete. We will see how good of a football player he is. He is great at blocking kicks.

My pick of the week is SMU +13.5. Just think it will take a while for your defensive players to get used to their roles, and SMU’s offense would be a good test for anyone.

I am not sold on Potts, not on Tuberville’s willingness to stick with a true spread offense. Should be interesting.

by miketag on Aug 31, 2010 1:45 PM CDT reply actions  

Guess you're in the minority
My pick of the week is SMU +13.5

as the line has now moved to 14

by AmarilloTechster on Aug 31, 2010 5:16 PM CDT up reply actions  

Yeah.

I’m picking SMU to win b/c its contrary to things like rosters, skill, practice, and coaching.

by logan5555 on Aug 31, 2010 8:05 PM CDT up reply actions  

Not to play devil's advocate

but he’s not exactly picking them to win. He’s just picking them to cover. Picking them to win would be saying SMU straight up (not +13.5).

by TheScarletandTheBlack on Sep 1, 2010 10:46 AM CDT up reply actions  

But if he is picking them to win...

then that’s just foolish in my book. I think the D might have an issue here or there in the first half, but I see Tech being ahead 20 going into the 4th (surrendering a TD then would put the difference in that 13.5 range).

by TheScarletandTheBlack on Sep 1, 2010 10:52 AM CDT up reply actions  

Good Write, Seth

Pretty much my thoughts also. JJones is a good coach, what he did for Hawaii was pretty spectacular also. And yep, heads up secondary, here they come. Blitz like crazy and good things will happen.

by chuckvan on Aug 31, 2010 3:36 PM CDT reply actions  

D Line

I think our Dline and blitz packages will get pressure on the QB. Remember they haven’t seen our defense yet and while they might have some insight to what we will do they are kinda shooting in the dark on what they are preparing for on bith offense and defense.

by ST04 on Aug 31, 2010 11:48 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

D Line

I think our Dline and blitz packages will get pressure on the QB. Remember they haven’t seen our defense yet and while they might have some insight to what we will do they are kinda shooting in the dark on what they are preparing for on bith offense and defense.

by ST04 on Aug 31, 2010 11:55 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions  

"There is no substitute for cubic inches".......

is an old racing adage. In collage football it would be “there is no substitute for raw talent” and at this stage of the game
Tech has the advantage; coaching is a dead heat, advantage Tech.

FORZA ROSSI

by bmaxw on Aug 31, 2010 10:15 PM CDT reply actions  

What we know: SMU has a darn fine coach who has assembled a staff that is effective given their progress from 1-11, to a winning season and fine bowl win…and it was not totally their athletes that had held them back the 1-11 season.

With publication of our depth roster, the world knows where we are young by age, by experience as individuals, and by experience at team play whether on the lines or as a whole.

SMU does not know what we are going to do—only the team and staff know that—a lot of people both for and against the Raider Nation are going to be looking at this game to see who TTU is this season…both on offense and on defense…and special teams.

SMU will need to be a bit more honest regarding our run game…our passing game has great potential to be scary effective.

What we can expect: Two well coached teams playing to the abilities of the players from game plans that work from the strengths identified in Spring and Fall versus the percieved weaknesses of the other guy. TTU may have advantage with the percieved weakness part—surely they will look to challenge any area of our defense that looks young or immature.

The offense is going to make mistakes, every player, every position. Same on the defense with perhaps a few more in the secondary with the young youngsters.

I almost expect both teams to score their opening possessions…maybe the first two…whoevers settles in and plays football first will gain advantage. (kink of like doing their job) Effective senior leadership will be telling.

The TTU coverage teams are going to be rabid !!

that is pretty broad…but all I have. I think there will be a pretty strong element of testing the waters on the TTU side of the ball, more than on the SMU—more for a first game. The players are going to be tested as a team and the staff is going to be tested as a team coaching a live game. I am looking for a great relationship between Sonny Upstairs and Neal Sideline to leverage the offense to what SMU is giving.

I would love to see on the telly this season a pic-in-pic with isolation on the side line coordinators as they watch their charges play. I think Coach Willis could provide some exciting high lites.

Oh, and TTU will win going away.

women should put pictures of missing husbands on beer cans

by TallMike on Sep 1, 2010 12:00 PM CDT reply actions  

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