Reasons for Concern and Optimism | SMU Mustangs vs. Texas Tech Red Raiders
by Seth C on Sep 2, 2010 10:00 AM CDT
in Texas Tech Football
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THE UNKNOWN | As the week goes by, nothing concerns me more than the unknown. I'll either feel a lot better or a lot worse Sunday evening and that in itself is a scary feeling. We've been promised, and I believe, that the offense isn't going to change. The spring game is certainly indicative of that statement. I do think this offense will be faster, and on some level, that could work out wonderfully if the offense clicks and makes things happen. However, if the offense doesn't click, then SMU is right back on the field, doing what they do. Defensively, we've been told that the defense is significantly more difficult than the prior defense, that the biggest problem is getting aligned correctly and making the right reads. Offenses like SMU and Texas Tech typically force teams to make decisions defensively and if you have mental mistakes, compounded with physical mistakes, then you've to the recipe for a long afternoon. My biggest solace in this whole scenario is that I'm very thankful that the Texas Tech offense probably force-fed the the defense by seeing a ton of repetitions and a bunch of different formations that require the Texas Tech defense to adjust.
STOPPING THE PONIES | This merges a bit into what I was thinking above, which is that I think the Texas Tech defense has plenty of talent and bodies to make it happen. And as I continue to think about the prior regime, I keep thinking that I knew what I was going to get from Ruffin McNeill. It's wasn't going to be anything incredibly creative, but it was pretty solid the past two years. There wasn't going to be any exotic blitzing schemes or alignments that were going to confuse the opposing offense. What McNeill did do is line you up, rush just four guys 75% of the time and just beat you with fundamentals. This worked to Texas Tech's disadvantage when the defense was against a physically superior team, but more times than not, the defense was just better. But for now, there's no safety net for me personally.
Reasons for optimism after the jump.
REASONS FOR OPTIMISM
| MONDAY | Five Questions |
| TUESDAY | What We Think We Know |
| WEDNESDAY | Keys to the Game |
| THURSDAY | Reasons for Concern and Optimism |
| FRIDAY | Prediction Time |
SKILL POSITION CONSISTENCY | I absolutely love the skill position players on this team. Granted, it's great to have skill position players, but you've also got to have a quarterback that can get them the ball and an offensive line that can protect the quarterback. Since Edward Britton was the only player that the offense lost last year from those skill players. I've talked a bit about how last year's team lacked certain playmakers and that was true to an extent, but that still meant that the receivers and backs caught almost 450 passes for over 5,000 yards. That's still really good and if you add the maturity of some of some of these players, in particular the emergence of Jacoby Franks and Tramain Swindall in fall practices. The continued maturation of Eric Stephens who the coaches continue to talk about on more than a handful of occasions. And a finally healthy Detron Lewis, who was supposed to be the next big thing and he's going to have plenty of opportunity to make a name for himself. And this really doesn't even mention players like Baron Batch and Alexander Torres, who were incredibly consistent all of last year. There's a ton of talent at these positions, now all we have to do is get them the ball.
STABILITY AT THE TOP | I preface all of this by saying that leadership at the top won't mean a hill of beans should Texas Tech lose this game on Sunday. That still doesn't mean that those fans that were even the most angry, bitter, and overall pissed at the things that have happened over the last nine months haven't bought in a little bit at what Tuberville has done since he arrived. And this isn't an indictment on the former staff, this is about Tuberville having to clean up someone else's problems (I'm thinking the Wolf in Pulp Fiction). Up to this point, things have gone about as smoothly as you could possibly ask. Sure there have been bumps and bruises along with way, including a quarterback controversy. I can't say that I can relate any more to 18 to 22 year old football players, but having a little consistency and a little structure to your life can be a really good thing. Not to mention, I think that the players have bought into what Tuberville is selling. Earlier in the spring/summer I was still a bit wary about whether or not the players had really bought into the program and after seeing and reading everything that I possibly could, I'm pretty much convinced that for the most part, they believe in his vision. Having a little faith will take a team a long way.
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Concern: I’m with you on the offense. All I keep hearing from people is that its going to be dramatically different, and I don’t see that at all. Of course these people are Aggies and Longhorns and they only read the DMN… but still if we end up rushing for 200 and passing for 200 I’m going to be pissed off. Unless the score is 52-7… On defense the complexity does concern me, but I can’t see Willis and Tubs doing stuff that makes us a worse defense than last year. So I’m much more concerned about the Offensive line and scheme. Also, I’m pretty concerned that Potts plays like last year…
Optomism: Our skill players are great! Especially the 2nd string QB! Hopefully the O line can hold long enough for the QB to get the ball to them. I am optomistic about running the ball more and running out of a run formation/set. Also, blitzing when you need it! Can’t wait.
Why concern with running the ball?
I don’t know why your so iffy about running the ball. I’d be very happy if we ran it more and controlled the clock. Running the ball wins championships. I know this unit hasn’t done it yet, but you have to transition into it sooner than later. And with the running backs we have; Batch should get 20+ carries a game with Stephens getting a good share as well just depends on who is doing better. As for skill players, I’d like to see Eric Ward step it up and make some plays as well with Douglas. I think Ben McRoy could be great but if he is going to be #4 at RB and #6 at WR I think it would be best to redshirt him but we will have to see. Potts is descent, I’d still take him over Sheffield. Sheffield gets all this hype cause he can run or what? I don’t know what he has done that is so impressive.
One more time
I’ll give you a little refresher to answer your question:
“What has SS done that is so impressive?”
177.6 QB Rating
74.3% completion percentage
9.0 that’s NINE POINT ZERO Yards per attempt
14 TDs to 4 INTs
Total and complete domination of the #2 defense in college football.
Just in case you were wondering – the “what have you done for me lately crowd” needs to wake up and see what we’ve got in the holster. I don’t know if it was double-entendre but your comment that Potts is “descent” may be accurate.
Sheffield stills needs to prove me wrong.
I don’t disagree there but that game against Nebraska is still hard for me to take anything from with the turnovers Nebraska had; especially with Howard’s fumble return for a TD. Sheffield only had 1 TD and that was to Batch in the open field. Those stats for Sheffield are inflated and against weak defenses. KSU and New Mexico we’re both home games and have weak defenses. The road games he played in he did average at best. He still needs to prove he can do it against the elite teams which he hasn’t yet, not that Potts has either ,but I don’t see how you can say Sheffield is that much better.
Yes...we can
We have eyes AND the stats bare it out.
You can be mor optimistic about how Potts will do this year….. But you can’t revise last years history.
'Thats how baseball go"-Ron Washington
by oldschoolraider on Sep 2, 2010 3:37 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
I was at the Nebraska game
And it was his mobility that never allowed that vaunted d to get them back in the game. The stats weren’t overwhelming….but there were drops and that was the best d in the country.
'Thats how baseball go"-Ron Washington
by oldschoolraider on Sep 2, 2010 3:42 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
Negationism is rampant...
As mystifying as it is, never underestimate the ability of the myopic eye to focus clearly on what it only wishes to see.
As a Red Raider fan, I can only hope Potts performs as well as his blinders wearing revisionist supporters claim he can.
I hope he does....
And it will certainly not be the first time I have predicted incorrectly (red bull, iPod and west wing).
I will be happy and in awe of the change from last year.
I could not bite my tongue when @frosty?‘s response to cold hard stats was " yeah well he stil has to prove something".
Let’s all cheer Potts on and not fabricate last years results. Go nick!
'Thats how baseball go"-Ron Washington
by oldschoolraider on Sep 2, 2010 5:20 PM CDT via mobile up reply actions
SS offered up the ability to get people motivated in game time situations. I’m not sure Pott’s has that ability but I’m pulling for him. The motivation factor goes a long way on the football field and can sometimes be more advantageous than skill level. It’s all about making things happen and SS did that in almost every instance last season. For now I support our staff’s decision to play Potts but I just hope he can deliver this season.
"You've got to find your inner pirate" - Mike Leach
LOL
Sheffield’s ok, but he put up all those numbers against crap teams. he did average against nebraska, like Frostyttu said the fumble return for td helps not to meantion a wide open pass to batch. Its hard to judge how good he is off stats he put up against k state and new mexico. neways what happened when he played against OSU, oh yeah a pick six that cost us the game. Potts won the job fair in square so i dont know why people are still crying about it. His mistakes of throwing off his back foot is correctable. Lets just said till after the SMU game to make any sudden judgements.
hey rpowel2,
You know, you should really pick a side in the Potts – Sheffield debate. Your flip-flopping is getting old :)
by beantownraider on Sep 2, 2010 1:11 PM CDT up reply actions
I know...I waffle a lot.
Sheffield had a freakin’ cast on his leg with the pick 6. NMU did not look like a crap defense until the second half…and why was that??? Read the numbers above again – they’re out-foking-standing – against ANY college team.
I’m not crying about anything…yet…I’m going to go post on KWash’s fanpost to appease the FB Gods now.
Leach has been on Rivals Radio the last two days between 11:00-12:00
I was just listening & he was describing the pointlessness of time of posession. He said the key statistic is number of offensive plays. The amount of time that ticks off between plays makes no difference in the outcome of the game. I tend to agree with that. I think Neal Brown understands it too since he always talks about the number of offensive plays the team will get.
hmmm
I have no idea why you would be pissed off if we had 200 yards passing and 200 yards running……id be happy if we ran for 250 yards and passed for 100 yrds or less as long as we win the game. running the ball wins titles.
No
Scoring more than the other team wins titles. And if we have 200 yards rushing and 200 passing we probably didn’t score many points unless we started with great field position. It may work against SMU but it won’t against UT. At least that is my thought. And I love running, I just know that we don’t have the athletes UT and OU have and if we just line up and try to run we will lose. Spreading the ball out in the passing game helps equalize the talent gap. Leach understood this. I don’t think we will have a problem b/c Brown understands this as well. I’m just worried that Tubs old ways are going to screw us over. When we have ronnie brown and caddilac williams as well as a top tier defense then we can run a ton more. Until then we can’t win a big 12 championship without passing. Thats my thought.
I think it looks like conservative coaching wins titles because the teams with the most talent win titles
And if you are Mac Brown & you have the greatest talent in the conference, why would you ever take any chances? Why risk a sure thing? Major power coaches call conservative game plans because they can afford to. Talent vs talent & they win every time.
Hopefully Tubs/Brown/Willis are good enough coaches to know when a conservative approach is ok and the other times that we are less talented and need to make more gutsy/risky plays. And they have talked about this and adapting the offense/defense to the particular opponent.
Against the better teams, there is no way in hell they would try any sort of power running game when they know they need to distribute the ball around to “equalize the talent gap.” However, I do think taht throwing in more running plays helps make distributing the ball easier because it keeps the defense honest, thus equalizing the talent gap even more.
Yep
But I think the main fact that the power house teams have conservative coaches is two fold. 1)As you say if you have great talent you don’t need to try and run a pass happy offense. 2)The big time, old-school, programs have lots and lots of old fans and big time donors. Those guys don’t want Mike “crazy” Leach coming in and messing things up. They like the predictable, hand shaker, clap after bad plays, Mack Brown.
If I was UT I’d probably do things somewhat similar though. When you can just recruit and then win, why mess up a good thing?
Also, yeah its true some of these big teams do throw it a lot (like UT), but overall they are much more conservative.
And yeah conservative would win every time if you had better players at every position (pending the occasional fluke game).
I'm nervous.
hopefully some beverages before the game will settle my nerves and get me hoopin’ and holler’in till my voice gives out.
I have to stop watching the clock
I agree with Seth, here are my concerns and what I feel really good about. My biggest concern is the unkown. Coach Leach has said in many interviews that he felt that the talent on this team is the better than the talent on the 2008 team. He should know, these are still his players. The Pirate usually does not make stuff up. So, when you look at all the skill players, and The Pirate did start Potts over Sticks last year, I have to believe that the offesne is going to put points on the board. My second biggest concern is the Nascar Offesne. I disagree with all this talk about how Tubberville is more detailed than the Pirate. The Pirate let the QB’s set up on the line of scrimmage and read the defense and make the best call. This allowed us to control the ball and the scoreboard. Nascar is about catching the defense off guard, this will not work against Texas, Oklahoma, A&M, and most of the Big 12, and I guess we will find out on Sunday if even SMU. What I really feel good about is the talent on this team. Under Ruff the defense improved greatly over the past two years. These are Ruffs recurits, and just look at the players that are either trying to make NFL rosters, the talent pool on defense was and is getting better ever year. I think this years defense was going to be the best in the last 10 years either under Ruff or DC Willis. Thier is talent on this defense. I am worried the 3-4 might be too diffiuclt to master this early. The 3-4 is a tough defnese to master and many DC have lost their jobs trying to implement this system. But I still believe there is a lot of talent on the defensive side of the ball. I believe the talent is their, but is this the right system. Can’t wait until Sunday. My predicton, TTU 42, SMU 17. Go Red Riaders. And I am wearing black. So there.
Good luck Raiders...
……We Auburn Tigers will be interested to see how Coach Tuberville does in his first outing leading Texas Tech. A word of caution, though. Tuberville teams at Auburn tended to have rough first games. Typically, much of the playbook was kept under wraps, and Tubs was happy to eek out the close win. I wouldn’t read too much into the final score against the Mustangs. Tub’s past results:
1999: Miracle bomb needed in the waning seconds to beat Appalachian State 22-15, who led for much of the game.
2000: Had to put the starters back in for the 4th quarter to pull away from Wyoming 35-21 (who finished 2-9).
2001: Lackluster 30-0 win over Ball State. Only 6 points scored in the second half.
2002: Lost to Southern Cal in Los Angeles, 24-17.
2003: Laid a serious egg at home, losing to Southern Cal 23-0. Worst part about it was that they had our line calls and knew which side every running play was headed.
2004: Vanilla outing against Louisiana Monroe. Won 31-0, but only led 17-0 at the half.
2005: Rough home opener against Georgia Tech. Inexplicably asked a rookie QB to throw it 45 times against a blitzing Jon Tenuta defense. Result: 4 interceptions and a 23-14 loss.
2006: A field-goal fest against Washington State. The heat and humidity wore down the visitors, and Auburn pulled away late, 40-14.
2007: A very tight game with Kansas State till late. Auburn trailed much of the second half before driving for the go-ahead score. A sack-fumble-TD padded the final margin, 23-13.
2008: A vanilla outing against Louisiana Monroe; 17-0 at the half, 34-0 final.
It seems though that even under Leach it took us a few games to get everything together. Everyone always dogged on Leach for setting up a cupcake non-conference schedule, but he did it to get his team ready for the gauntlet that is always the big xii south. That was one reason i’m so worried about the UT game, because myers cares more about getting espn money than he does about our football team getting some experience together(i.e. scheduling Houston and Weber State at the end of the year in order to get the UT game in early)… especially now under a new regime.
I think we will be fine against SMU, but take the first half with a grain of salt. I have noticed that in the past few years, in the early games, it takes our team a little while to really start to click and also it takes our team a little while to adjust to the style of our opponent.
Ŧ ~ Formally Known as RedRaider621 ~ Ŧ
Nothing to worry about!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
If its still close at halftime we can always call on Blackbeard and KWash they still have some eligibility left I’m sure!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!
I'd be good for a quarter.
Not much after that.
" Answers --Become Resources."
Without Questions, There are limited Resources...
Reason for concern:
We don’t have that comfortable feeling from the experience of the past 10 years that gave us a sense of what to expect…even when we played weak teams to their level of execution.
Our O-line is worrisome/scary, there is little depth, the players are young in a number of ways.
We have expectations of lots of changes on defense with a group of young players in the secondary who will get a lot of responsibility.
We don’t know what the offense will really look like..run pass, pass run…who knows…perhaps some element of fear of not beating the begebbers out of a ‘lesser’ team is at play…a statement on the field is wanted…a strong statement.
There has been a lot of talk about the success of the ponies under Coach June Jones, a guy that many of us respect as a fine head coach…they look to be a much improved team/program—some of us remember not playing all that well vs SMU in prior early games.
Reason for Optimism:
I chose to be optimistic.
TTU is playing at home, we have great fans who can make a difference in a game.
For this game, the leadership will show what they can do in a transition from prior coaching philosophies to current. They look to be a very fine coaching staff who has been verbally supported by the player leadership in interview after interview.
We have an offense returning—given all the detail that we know about the weaknesses—that played to a very successful season last year in the most tumultuate season witnessed in 10 years…win/loss was very good overall.
The success of the ponies was not against competition even slightly comparable to that played in the Big12. It should look more like the recent series vs Rice.
women should put pictures of missing husbands on beer cans
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