DTN Class Project | Football Attrition Ratees from 2007 through 2011
by Seth C on Feb 6, 2012 1:00 PM CST
in Texas Tech Football 2012
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PrintI need some help. I was asked by the folks that run the Iowa blog, Black Heart Gold Pants, if I could run the numbers on the players that have left the program prior to graduation. In this bidness, we call it attrition, and so over the weekend, I put together a few tables, but I wanted to make sure that the information was reasonably correct.
I didn't look anything up, I just did this off of memory as I was running short on time and was curious if you all could be my fact-checkers. I pulled these lists from Rivals. You can feel free to ask about different things, but more than anything else, I want to make sure that this is somewhat accurate. I did want to point out a couple of things, the first being that I didn't know how to classify Jacob Karam as he didn't finish at Texas Tech, but he did receive his undergraduate degree. I'd hate to consider a player that graduated as being part of the attrition column, but I will if that's how everyone else feels.
I've also made assumptions about some players and the fact that they graduated. I don't really know if a player graduated, but it was my way of stating that they finished their careers at Texas Tech. I was also unsure as to how to deal with a player that never even qualified, but signed a LOI. Was curious if they should be considered as part of the attrition rate even though they were never on campus?
All of the tables are after the jump.
2007
| No. | Player | Years | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Bobby Agoucha | 2 | Dismissed from team twice. |
| 2 | Jacob Amie | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 3 | Bront Bird | 4 | Graduated. |
| 4 | Omar Castillo | 2 | Transferred. |
| 5 | Taylor Charbonnet | ? | Gave up football. |
| 6 | Aaron Crawford | 5 | Graduated. |
| 7 | Dominuqe Delpeche | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 8 | Lonnie Edwards | 5 | Graduated. |
| 9 | Blake Emert | ? | ? |
| 10 | Sam Fehoko | 4 | Left team senior year. |
| 11 | Jared Flannel | 5 | Graduated. |
| 12 | Jacoby Franks | 5 | Graduated. |
| 13 | Jerrod Gooch | 2 | Transferred. |
| 14 | Rashad Hawk | ? | Concentrated on track. |
| 15 | Daniel Howard | 2 | Graduated. |
| 16 | Justin Keown | 5 | Graduated. |
| 17 | Jonathan LaCour | 5 | Graduated. |
| 18 | Detron Lewis | 4 | Graduated. |
| 19 | Stefan Loucks | 2 | Transferred. |
| 20 | David Neill | 5 | Graduated. |
| 21 | Mickey Okafor | 5 | Graduated. |
| 22 | De'Shon Sanders | 3 | Graduated. |
| 23 | Brandon Sharpe | 2 | Graduated. |
| 24 | Tyrone Sonier | 5 | Graduated. |
| 25 | Tramain Swindall | 5 | Graduated. |
| 26 | Colby Whitlock | 4 | Graduated. |
| Attrition Rate | 10 of 26 | 38.46% |
2008
| No. | Player | Years | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Donnie Carona | 4 | Graduated. |
| 2 | Cody Davis | 4 | Still playing. |
| 3 | McKinner Dixon | 1 | Dismissed from team. |
| 4 | Seth Doege | 4 | Graduated, still playing. |
| 5 | Cornelius Douglas | 4 | Still playing. |
| 6 | Joey Fowler | 1 | No longer on team. |
| 7 | Deveric Gallington | 4 | Still playing. |
| 8 | Ryan Haliburton | 3 | Gave up football. |
| 9 | Harrison Jeffers | 3 | Gave up football. |
| 10 | Joe King | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 11 | Brockerick Marshall | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 12 | Terry McDaniel | 4 | Graduated, still playing. |
| 13 | Brandon Reid | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 14 | Jarell Routt | 2 | Graduated. |
| 15 | Brandon Sesay | 1 | Dismissed from team. |
| 16 | Austin Zouzalik | 4 | Still playing. |
| Attrition Rate | 8 of 16 | 50.00% |
2009
| No. | Player | Years | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Aundrey Barr | 3 | Still playing. |
| 2 | Terrance Bullitt | 3 | Still playing. |
| 3 | Ramario Cathey | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 4 | E.J. Celestie | 1 | No longer on team. |
| 5 | Dion Chidozie | 3 | Still playing. |
| 6 | Kyle Clark | 3 | Still playing. |
| 7 | Daniel Cobb | 3 | Still playing. |
| 8 | Aaron Fisher | 3 | Still playing. |
| 9 | Will Ford | 2 | No longer on team. |
| 10 | Matt Goetz | 1 | No longer on team. |
| 11 | Pearlie Graves | 2 | No longer on team. |
| 12 | Joel Gray | 2 | No longer on team. |
| 13 | Kerry Hyder | 3 | Still playing. |
| 14 | D.J. Johnson | 3 | Still playing. |
| 15 | Jacob Karam | 3 | Graduated, transferred. |
| 16 | Chris Knighton | 3 | Still playing. |
| 17 | Brandon Mahoney | 1 | Dismissed from team. |
| 18 | Derrick Mays | 3 | Still playing. |
| 19 | Jarvis Phillips | 3 | Still playing. |
| 20 | James Scott | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 21 | Eric Stephens | 3 | Still playing. |
| 22 | LaAdrian Waddle | 3 | Still playing. |
| 23 | Eric Ward | 3 | Still playing. |
| 24 | Yahshua Williams | 2 | No longer on team. |
| Attrition Rate | 9 of 24 | 37.50% |
2010
| No. | Player | Years | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Dartwan Bush | 2 | Still playing. |
| 2 | Aleon Calhoun | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 3 | Joe Carmical | 1 | No longer on team. |
| 4 | Beau Carpenter | 2 | Still playing. |
| 5 | Lawrence Cayou | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 6 | Coby Coleman | 1 | No longer on team. |
| 7 | Shawn Corker | 2 | Still playing. |
| 8 | Delans Griffin | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 9 | Cqulin Hubert | 2 | Still playing. |
| 10 | Don Hursey | 1 | No longer on team. |
| 11 | Urell Johnson | 2 | Still playing. |
| 12 | Mike Jones | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 13 | Donald Langley | 2 | Graduated. |
| 14 | Desmond Martin | 2 | Still playing. |
| 15 | Ben McRoy | 2 | Still playing. |
| 16 | Darrin Moore | 2 | Still playing. |
| 17 | Tahrick Peak | 0 | No longer on team. |
| 18 | James Polk | 2 | Still playing. |
| 19 | Russell Polk | 2 | Still playing. |
| 20 | Tre Porter | 2 | Still playing. |
| 21 | Jackson Richards | 2 | Still playing. |
| 22 | Lawrence Rumph | 1 | Transferred. |
| 23 | Brandon Smith | 1 | No longer on team. |
| 24 | Scott Smith | 2 | Graduated. |
| 25 | Philip Warren | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 26 | LaVaugh Whigham | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 27 | Zach Winbush | 2 | Still playing. |
| 28 | Scotty Young | 2 | Transferred. |
| Attrition Rate | 13 of 28 | 46.43% |
2011
| No. | Player | Years | Comment |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Jace Amaro | 1 | Still playing. |
| 2 | Michael Brewer | 1 | Still playing. |
| 3 | LaRaven Clark | 1 | Still playing. |
| 4 | Justin Cooper | 1 | Still playing. |
| 5 | Ronnie Daniels | 1 | Still playing. |
| 6 | Blake Dees | 1 | Still playing. |
| 7 | Derek Edwards | 1 | Still playing. |
| 8 | Sam Eguavoen | 1 | Still playing. |
| 9 | Kindred Evans | 1 | Still playing. |
| 10 | J.J. Gaines | 1 | Still playing. |
| 11 | Jakeem Grant | 1 | Still playing. |
| 12 | Desimon Green | 0 | Never qualified. |
| 13 | Branden Jackson | 1 | Still playing. |
| 14 | Marcus Kennard | 1 | Still playing. |
| 15 | Leon Mackey | 1 | Still playing. |
| 16 | Bradley Marquez | 1 | Still playing. |
| 17 | Alfredo Morales | 1 | Still playing. |
| 18 | Tony Morales | 1 | Still playing. |
| 19 | Donte Phillips | 1 | Still playing. |
| 20 | Jeremy Reynolds | 1 | Still playing. |
| 21 | LaDarrin Robertson | 1 | Still playing. |
| 22 | Delvon Simmons | 1 | Still playing. |
| 23 | Cooper Washington | 1 | No longer on team. |
| 24 | DeAndre Washington | 1 | Still playing. |
| 25 | Dennell Wesley | 1 | Still playing. |
| 26 | Kenny Williams | 1 | Still playing. |
| 27 | Matt Wilson | 1 | Still playing. |
| Attrition Rate | 2 of 27 | 7.41% |
Overall
| Year | Total Commits | No Longer on Team | Attrition Rate |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2007 | 26 | 10 | 38.46% |
| 2008 | 16 | 8 | 50.00% |
| 2009 | 24 | 9 | 37.50% |
| 2010 | 28 | 13 | 46.43% |
| 2011 | 27 | 2 | 7.41% |
| TOTALS | 121 | 42 | 34.71% |
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I didn’t want to count him as he wasn’t initially part of any recruiting class, but I’m open to suggestions.
Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation
One other thought is that I do not know for sure who is a walk-on and who is on scholarship. I have a general idea, but I don’t have any real verification.
Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation
My 2 cents
Keeping in mind that the main goal is supposed to be to get an education:
1) I wouldn’t count an early graduate as attrition. Karam accomplished what the scholarship is intended for – earn an undergraduate degree. Shouldn’t matter that he did it faster than most and still has eligibility remaining.
2) I wouldn’t count non-qualifiers as attrition either. These guys did not meet the requirements for receiving a scholarship, period. The fact that this was not determined until after they sign the LOI is not relevant. Had it been possible to know that they were non-qualifiers sooner, they would not have been offered.
I would ask Black Heart Gold Pants why they are requesting the information.
Their data will need to be consistent in order to be meaningful, and I suspect they have some motivation for asking for the data. If they are trying to find out how many players graduate from the schools they attend for athletics, that is relatively straight forward. If they’re trying to find out how many players play all their eligibility for the same school, that’s also straight forward (but warrants a different answer).
I was interested anyway, so the “why” doesn’t matter to me and I was also curious as to whether TTU is fairly representative of the rest of the nation. And it’s not about graduation, but just about who left the program early, you can see the post here, but I think they were curious about their own situation: http://www.blackheartgoldpants.com/2012/1/19/2718104/the-epilogue-part-4-the-attrition-issue-and-iowa-football
Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation
I agree with My $0.02
The only add might be if we’re looking at the attrition rate due some unforeseen event such as injury or worse, death, you might not include. I think you get an exemption for, I think as the lawyers call it, force majeure, or something out of their control. Although none have been killed, should a debilitating injury be called attrition? On balance, probably. Of course going to jail would be part of attrition, so the Longhorns would have to up their numbers.
Row well and live...Ben-Hur
Guys like Karam, who graduated, then transfered...graduated !!!
Guys who never qualified, never got on campus, how can they be counted against graduation ?
If the guy is looking for NCAA graduation rates they are published on some web site that shows all college teams.
Living large in Texas...Texas forever.
We all know about the APR, but it’s confusing, so we’re not looking for graduation rates, we’re just trying to do a comparison of attrition rates and see if there is something out of order. I can say that TTU and Iowa are both about 35%, although I think TTU’s rate of excluding non-qualifies will help the percentage.
But to answer your question, I took the list and I’m asking you all if my comment about players not ever arriving on campus is accurate. I need help remembering.
Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation
Kind of scary looking back like this.
I would think you might want two different numbers for this. Guys that didn’t qualify aren’t really attrition since they never were on campus, but should be looked at to get an idea of our recruiting and the reaches the coaches took. That 08 group is just horrible when you look at it this way. I would think the 07 group is about average when you look at the entire 5 years for a group. The 10 group also looks bad, but many of those guys that didn’t qualify were reaches by Tubs where he knew they probably wouldn’t make it but was hoping for a miracle or that they would go juco and come back. Thierry is one of those guys and hopefully Green will be one next year.
Re. the 2008 class, yes, that class being a small class and being JUCO heavy was absolutely awful. Leach went “all in” with that class and it worked, but the 2008 folks should be the backbone of the current team and if you wanted to point to a reason why this team is so young, the 2008 recruiting class is a good place to start. If we take out the non-qualifiers for each class, that will help, but it’s still pretty bad.
Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation
The 10 class is the main reason I think non-qualifiers shouldn’t be looked at. Makes that class look pretty bad, which it wasn’t great, but most of those NQ’s were known to be reaches and were Tubs attempt to boost a so-so class. That’s why we had 28 in that class. He knew full well many would not make it and would wind up juco’s, so should that be held against the class? Just my thoughts.
Yes, and I wish we knew what Leach was thinking in the 2008 class with Marshall, Fowler, Reid, and King. That’s four LOI’s and I wonder if Leach knew that they wouldn’t qualify and wanted to take the risk like Tuberville did with the 2011 class, but I don’t think he should have needed to take such risks at that time.
Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation
Joey Fowler
Did qualify, but got turfed off the team for some misdeameanor shortly after…
Wonder also...
Those who are no longer on the team, but still enrolled in school and graduate, how would you classify those players? I believe Joel Gray no longer plays due to career injury but will still graduate from TTU.
Right, same with Jeffers. My thought was that I count it against the team. Injuries happen to every team so it’s not exclusive to TTU. I’m sure that happens all over the country.
Go Raiders . . .
Double-T Nation
Attrition, once they qualify and hit campus, is attrition.
You could break it down a bunch of different ways if you want to. But for what I think your purposes are, you don’t need to get that specific. If you qualified and quit, that’s attrition. If you qualified and got booted, that’s attrition. If you qualified and transferred, that’s attrition. If you qualified and got hurt, that’s attrition, too.
11/12/11...66-6...I once was blind, but now I see.
Cooper Washington
The kid we got at the last minute that was a prior OU commit, is gone ?
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We didn't realize how special those days were, but then again we did celebrate a hell of a lot!
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"The ball just didnt bounce our way" CTTs decades of experience ...............................................................................................................................
Blaze a trail, spend some time in West Texas, feel the sand sting your skin and burn your eyes, let the winter dry your hands, learn that its there only because our ancestors didn’t want to be around other people … that’s West Texas
Cooper Washington
had a change of heart and left the team. I think he decided Tech was not where he really wanted to be and made a sudden decision to change locals. It is in the DTN archives somewhere. I felt at the time it was a significant loss for Tech, as he had the abilities that would have made him an immediate factor for the Tech defense. I just hope Tech can keep everyone they now have and right this team the coming season. GO TECH!
TTpilk
"Never, never, never give up." Winston Churchill
IMO .... On NSD each school has their LOI
That makes up the class plus any that might have signed on early and came in the semester before.
The attrition should include all factors .. grades, injury, gave up playing, etc.
If they have eligibility then they transfer (even if they have already graduated like Karam) it is still attrition for that team (in Karam’s case Tech’s)
If they have eligibility and one of the factors comes into play (injury, transfer, grades, death, rule violation, gave up playing, etc) then it should be classified as attrition
If you start with a class of a certain size say 2010 …. 28 players (28 LOI) then you have to determine what factor affected them and why they are no longer on the team.
_____________________________________________
"I was taught to fight, taught to win" .... "Don’t Give Up"
The people making the request
really should have defined attrition for the respondents. Not that the definition itself is critical, but a consistent standard must be used for the data to be meaningful.
Your definition is broad (includes all factors), but it’s simple. You actually DON’T have to determine what factor affected a player and why he is no longer on the team; it’s simply a matter of who completed their eligibility and who didn’t.
I have no problem with it except for the grade factor – if grades includes non-qualifiers. In my view, these guys never met the requirements for a scholarship, never enrolled, never reported to campus. The LOI only indicates their intent to join the program once certain contingencies are met. Someone who never arrived cannot leave; they shouldn’t be counted towards attrition.
Now it might be interesting to see some data on percentage of non-qualifiers per recruiting class by school. And to discuss why some coaches are willing to take chances. But that’s a different conversation in my opinion.
The "Base" number needs to be decided on
Base Number (Starting point) =
1. LOI
or
2. Those that made it on to campus and at least 1 practice
and then what factors are considered attrition
You are correct the requestors should have defined the Base (Starting Point ) and then defined the attrition factors or definition of what would be considered attrition
_____________________________________________
"I was taught to fight, taught to win" .... "Don’t Give Up"
I agree with RndRckTTU
They should have defined what THEY consider attrition, and then go from there. But for ME, I’d define any departure assuming they were ever on the scholarship roster (considering the “oversigning” issue) as “attrition”. Reason being, it’s a metric for players on our football team and for every player that graduates but has eligibility and leaves (ala Karam) there are several(?) that graduate with eligibility and keep playing. The sticky mess (to me) is players that go pro early. Which is a great result for the PLAYER, but a negative for the TEAM. (debatably it’s both to the SCHOOL)
But, to me, Karam is attrition because he COULD still be on the team, but isn’t due to his choice. I don’t see how it’s different that the player chooses to leave the team but has a degree vs. chooses to leave but does not have a degree. (in terms of “attrition for the team”, I’m fully cognizant of the difference to a player or even to the college) The net result for our football team is they still lose a player who COULD have contributed.
What about a guy who can't be on a team, but continues to make progress towards a degree.
Can’t be on a team say due to injury.
Living large in Texas...Texas forever.
Injured Reserve List ???
Technically they are still on the Roster they just can’t suit up and play or practice
_____________________________________________
"I was taught to fight, taught to win" .... "Don’t Give Up"
Young's father wants hik to come home and play at UNT according to tje Denton UNT beat writer
Would have never thought that would happen…
JD’s like, "you want some f*&#ing pitching? Here’s all the pitching you can stand. Now choke on it, b*#&hes!"- RCCook
LSB: "Oh s#*t, JD. You crazy!"
I'd like an overall attrition rate
but I think its easy enough to break it down and show people who never arrived on campus, injury, etc.
i like lose women
I agree and dissagree with using non-qualifiers as an attrition state
at first it seems that players who didn’t contribute to the team or did not take a scholarship.. due to qualification requirements… (were not on the team… or on campus).. shouldn’t get counted against attrition… ie (2010 46.3% 13/28 players vs the same 2010 31.8% 7/22)
Why theses players should be counted has to do with the fact that there was time and effort spend on recruiting theses players… they were expected to sign there LOI and could have counted against the scholarship offered limit… therefore there may have been other potential players who didn’t get an offer because the non-qualifying players were expected to contribute to the team.. these potential players it should be counted as a loss to the actual recruiting and attrition numbers because of the initial investment that did not payout.
Blake Emert
Blake Emert was a 4 year scout team player, graduated ?? probably
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