WHAT TO EXPECT

THIS IS A BLUEPRINT | If you wanted somewhat of a blueprint as to what Gillispie can do in a year, then look no further than Iowa St. When Fred Hoiberg season Iowa St. was a middling team that was bordering on just being a losing team. Hoiberg's first year was the 2010-2011 seasno and Hoiberg went 3-13 in conference and Hoiberg took on a handful of transfers, Allen (Michigan St., Babb (Penn St.), Anthony Booker (Southern Illinois) and White (Minnesota), and now Iowa St. is headed to an NCAA invitation. There is risk involved in that Iowa St. doesn't have these players for four or five years, but Hoiberg quickly righted the ship this year and the Cyclones are on their way. It doesn't appear that Gillispie is headed down this path, taking a lot of transfers, but this is one way and it's working for Hoiberg and Iowa St.

IT'S JUST PUTTING THE BALL IN THE BASKET | Texas Tech is 316th in the nation out of 338 in scoring offense. Early in the season, when Texas Tech took advantage of an awful non-conference schedule and really built up some good offensive numbers in terms of effective field goal percentage, but now that offense is the 240th KenPom offense. LAJ's Nick Kosmider also breaks down the offense and looks at the free throw disparity and the results aren't good:

Through the first seven Big 12 games, Tech (8-18, 1-13) was outscored at the free-throw line by a combined 12 points. In the seven games since, that deficit has ballooned to 76 points, an average of more than 10 points per game lost by Tech at the line. The Red Raiders have made more than 10 free throws only twice in the last seven games.

In a 47-38 loss to Texas A&M on Feb. 14, Tech shot just two foul shots — both missed. Asked whether he had ever coached a game where his team only attempted two from throws, Gillispie said, "I don’t know ... but we barely got those."

KEY MATCHUPS

TOLBERT VS. WHITE | I'm keeping this matchup despite the fact that I highlighted it last time. I love watching White play, he's so good and fun to watch as a complete basketball player. The fact that he's almost averaging a double-double is impressive and I mentioned this the last time, but White is a passing machine at 6-8/270, at almost 5 assist a game. I don't know how White would fit in the NBA, but he sure is fun to watch now. Tolbert has a tall task, just like he did last time, but

MCGEE/ALLEN VS. WILLIS/NURSE | I wouldn't say that Allen and McGee lit up Texas Tech, but they were both awfully efficient and McGee came off theh bench to lead Iowa St. the last time that Texas Tech and ISU met. Texas Tech has been playing better defense, but when a team can't score, the defense doesn't matter too much. Still, McGee hit 6 of 11 from three-point range the last game and someone has to get out on him as McGee more than doubled his usual scoring average. Nurse and Willis have been better of late, but it still hasn't been close to being good enough to get wins in the Big 12. They both have to have good games, offensively and defensively, for Texas Tech to have much of a chance.

Date | February 18, 2012
Time | 7:00 pm
Location | Lawrence, KS
TV | Big 12 Network
Radio | Affiliates

Javarez Willis (5-11/171) | 8.0 PPG | 1.7 APG
Ty Nurse (6-1/180) | 8.6 PPG | 1.7 RPG
Luke Adams (5-9/150) | 4.1 PPG | 1.2 APG
Jordan Tolbert (6-7/210) | 11.3 PPG | 5.8 RPG
Robert Lewandowski (6-10/256) | 7.3 PPG | 3.9 RPG

Tyshawn Taylor (6-3/185) | 16.9 PPG | 5.1 APG
Elijah Johnson (6-4/195) | 8.7 PPG | 2.8 RPG
Travis Releford (6-5/207) | 9.0 PPG | 4.2 RPG
Thomas Robinson (6-9/237) | 17.1 PPG | 11.9 RPG
Jeff Withey (7-0/235) | 9.5 PPG | 6.5 RPG

Date | February 14, 2012
Time | 6:00 pm
Location | Lubbock, TX
TV | ESPN2
Radio | Affiliates

Ty Nurse (6-1/180) | 7.9 PPG | 3.3 RPG
Javarez Willis (5-11/171) | 7.9 PPG | 1.7 APG
Luke Adams (5-9/150) | 4.2 PPG | 1.0 APG
Jordan Tolbert (6-7/210) | 11.7 PPG | 6.0 RPG
Robert Lewandowski (6-10/256) | 7.3 PPG | 3.7 RPG

Jordan Green (6-4/180) | 3.3 PPG | 1.2 APG
Naji Hibbert (6-5/195) | 4.3 PPG | 2.1 RPG
Elston Turner (6-5/220) | 14.5 PPG | 3.5 RPG
Daniel Alexander (6-9/215) | 3.0 PPG | 2.6 RPG
David Loubeau (6-8/235) | 11.0 PPG | 4.4 RPG

NEWSPAPER LINKS

• Tech, A&M set for final Big 12 hoops matchup | LAJ's Nick Kosmider
• Tech looks to build off first conference win, hosts A&M | DT's Chois Woodman
• Luke Adams: Not the typical Division I basketball player | DT's Chois Woodman

WHAT TO EXPECT

IT FEELS SO GOOD TO GET THAT FIRST ONE | It's just one game, but winning against Oklahoma felt really good and since TAMU has started to become more injured than healthy and been an overall disappointment, I'm thinking that this is a fairly winnable game. With Texas Tech, nothing is guaranteed, but I think that Kris Middleton and Dash Harris will both be out for this game and they're two of the better players for the Aggies. One other note is that the Aggies have really leveled off to similar stats to Texas Tech. The difference is that Texas Tech was nevera top 25 team. TAMU at a 62.0 PPG rate, while Texas Tech is scoring 61.2. Texas Tech is allowing about 7 more points a game than they are averaging, while TAMU is less than 1 point better than their per game average. But that's the sign of a bad team, which is a low or negative point differential.

LEARNING TO WIN | Winning is contagious and the win against Oklahoma could do wonders for this team moving forward. Head Coach Billy Gillisipie said after the OU game that there is still a lot of basketball to be played and a lot can happen. I don't think that Gillispie is thinking that his team is going to make any sort of post-season, but I do think he wants his team continually getting better. DT's Chois Woodman notes that Gillispie said that Texas Tech must continue to get better:

"We played a very complete game the other night," he said. "We made mistakes just like we always do, just like every team does, but we can do a lot better screening. We can do a lot better as far as the pace of the offense. It was still too slow as far as the pace goes, but we did a lot of really, really good things."

I mentioned this above, but there truly is not much that much difference between TAMU and Texas Tech, at least statistically. I think the difference between these two programs is about expectations, while Texas Tech wasn't expected to do much, if anything this year, the Aggies could definitely be a bit down after losing their last four games as well as losing three of their last nine games.

KEY MATCHUPS

TURNER VS. WILLIS | Who else thinks that Willis may have been a bit motivated of the challenge of taking the opposing team's best player. Javerez, meet Mr. Turner. Turner is the leading scorer on the team right now and he's got the size and athleticism to really give Texas Tech problems as they have few players that can matchup with Turner, but Willis can be a problem to cover as well. So long as he takes good shots, the shots that he talked about after the OU game, then I think he'll be fine. It helps to have a player like Adams that can create a bit in terms of creating for space for Willis to find some open spots, but for Willis to be effective, he has to be under control, not force shots and he'll be fine.

TOLBERT VS. LOUBEAU | With Middleton out, I'm guessing that Tolbert will get the call against Loubeau and I think this is the matchup that I'd enjoy watching more as Loubeau is a clone of Tolbert. A bit undersized, but Loubeau is tough and hard-nosed and although he's not a terrific offensive player, he's not bad. I'd love to see Tolbert be more well-rounded offensively than Loubeau, but Tolbert has more than exceeded my freshman expectations.

Box Score | Post Game Quotes

THIS POST IS DIFFERENT | Finally, this post game thoughts are different. I don't get to writ about how this team turned the ball over more than the opposing team and I don't get to write about how this team couldn't create any offense and I don't get to write about how the opposing team was better. I can't remember exactly when I came to the realization that this team wasn't very good, but that's a hard thing to compartmentalize for me, to openly admit that a team that I root for isn't very good, but I don't like being dishonest about a team either.

But last night, life was good and I'm going to celebrate a win. I won't be posting any news from any other sports this morning, despite having some news about football and a ton of baseball news. We'll get to it tomorrow. It sounds ridiculous to think that a win is so important and if it's important to my Texas Tech frame of mind, I can only imagine how important it is to this group.

I would also encourage you to watch the post-game press conference. Head coach Billy Gillispie gets emotional about his team and the fans and Lew and Bean may be the most appreciative people on the planet right now.

Jararez Willis | When Willis shoots the ball well and doesn't turn the ball over, he's not a liability. Just 1 assist and 1 turnover for the game, but Willis' box-and-1 defense against Pledger was critical, just as much was Willis' 8 of 12 from the field.

Ty Nurse | Nurse is an over-dribbler and I think that's his biggest problem. He dominates the ball sometimes and that creates a lull in the offense and makes it difficult to create something. Nurse didn't shoot particularly well, 2 of 10, but he did have 7 assists and 0 turnovers being such a primary ball-handler, that's what you need. Had a real pretty alley-oop to Tolbert.

Luke Adams | Wasn't asked to do too much, but he played 35 minutes. He wasn't really a positive or a negative offensively and he played good defense. Amazingly, the only three guards that played were Adams, Nurse and Willis. No other guard came off the bench.

Jordan Tolbert | Missed just about all of his short jump-shots, but continues to display the athleticism that you know will eventually translate when he has a summer to improve his game. Finished with 9 points, 6 boards, 1 assist, 2 turnovers, 2 blocks and 3 steals. Busy night.

Robert Lewandowski | Lew was 1 of 7 from the field in the first half and 7 of 12 from the field in the second half. Seemed like he just couldn't miss later in the second half. Finished with 16 points and 6 boards.

Jaye Crockett | Much like Adams, Crockett was relatively quiet offensively, finishing with just 4 points, but he did have 6 boards, 2 turnovers, 3 blocks and 1 steal. He was the only player that played significant minutes off the bench.

Clark Lammert | Minimal minutes.

Date | February 11, 2012
Time | 7:00 pm
Location | Lubbock, TX
TV | TTSN
Radio | Affiliates

Luke Adams (5-9/150) | 4.1 PPG | 1.0 APG
Ty Nurse (6-1/180) | 8.7 PPG | 1.7 RPG
Terran Petteway (6-6/185) | 3.9 PPG | 2.0 RPG
Jordan Tolbert (6-7/210) | 13.5 PPG | 6.2 RPG
Robert Lewandowski (6-10/256) | 7.0 PPG | 3.6 RPG

Sam Grooms (6-1/203) | 6.5 PPG | 5.9 APG
Cameron Clark (6-6/198) | 7.7 PPG | 3.9 RPG
Steven Pledger (6-4/221) | 17.8 PPG | 4.0 RPG
Romero Osby (6-8/237) | 12.3 PPG | 7.7 RPG
Andrew Fitzgerald (6-8/243) | 13.4 PPG | 5.0 RPG

Date | February 7, 2012
Time | 7:00 pm
Location | Manhattan, KS
TV | Big 12 Network
Radio | Affiliates

Kevin Wagner (5-8/145) | 2.5 PPG | 1.5 RPG
Javarez Willis (5-11/171) | 7.7 PPG | 1.8 APG
Terran Petteway (6-6/185) | 3.8 PPG | 2.0 RPG
Jordan Tolbert (6-7/210) | 11.9 PPG | 6.0 RPG
Robert Lewandowski (6-10/256) | 7.2 PPG | 3.7 RPG

Angel Rodriguez (5-11/180) | 7.4 PPG | 2.5 APG
Will Spradling (6-2/180) | 10.4 PPG | 2.8 APG
Rodney McGruder (6-4/205) | 15.0 PPG | 5.2 RPG
Jamar Samuels (6-7/230) | 10.4 PPG | 6.4 RPG
Thomas Gipson (6-7/275) | 8.5 PPG | 5.5 RPG

WHAT TO EXPECT

I'M SO SCARED BABY, PART II | Last time I did this, I was scared and Texas Tech lost by 19 while playing in the United Spirit Arena. I can't imagine what's going to happen at Bramlage Coliseum and if you were at all curious, the current line is 18. Strangely, K-State is in about the same spot in terms of the Big 12 as they were the last time. Previously, K-State was 3-3 before playing Texas Tech and are now 5-5, so I'm expecting that K-State will notch a win tonight. K-State continues to be pretty darned good defensively and are holding opponents to 10 points below (63 PPG) their own scoring average (73 PPG) and are also holding opponents to 39.9% from the field.

NO LONGER SURE WHAT TO WRITE | I think that I'm at the point where I'm struggling as to what to write at this point in the year. There are still 8 conference games remaining and, unfortunately, this team isn't showing any sort of ability to win a conference game. Like a lot of you, I'm at the point where I'm trying to find positives in each game and I think that Texas Tech came away with some positves the last time they played K-State as Wagner scored 16, Tolbert had 18 and Crockett had 9. As you might expect, I'm reaching here because I think I know, no matter how good I think Gillispie is as a head coach, there's only so much magic that I think he can create and I'm simply not seeing a conference win this year and that's depressing. As most of you know, I'm more of a glass-half-full person, but I'm also realistic and it's amazing how devoid of talent there is on this team. I think that Gillispie is bringing a bit of this on himself in not playing certain players more often, but even if the 5 best players had 30 minutes, I still don't think this team wins a conference game. Sad face.

KEY MATCHUPS

IRVING VS. CROCKETT | Martavious Irving (6-1/180) scored 16 points off the bench, going 6 of 10 from the field and had 4 assists for the night. I never expecting Irving to explode for 16 points (he's averaging just over 6) and this again goes to some of the issues that this team has defensively, which is that this team has a tough time keeping guards off the scoring ledger. Crockett had 9 points and 5 boards in the last game and would hope that he continues to get more minutes rather than the up-and-down affair that a handful of players are experiencing. Crockett and Irving will most likely not face each other, but if they bench is as important as it was the last game for K-State, 38 of their 69 points off the bench, the depth for Texas Tech is going to have to be better.

TOLBERT VS. SAMUELS | I'm going to highlight this again because, as mentioned above, was a true bright spot for this team as Tolbert had 18 points, 8 rebounds 2 blocks and just 2 turnovers. It was nice to see Tolbert break out of his slump and score some points. Add to this equation the fact that Samuels didn't score a point the last time these two teams met or even grabbed a rebound. I'm betting that Frank Martin is going to let Samuels know how bad he was out-played the last game and would expect a better effort.